Pre-ETS: What Do We Know From Data? August 16, 2016 Barbara J. Burkett, Ph.D., M.S.P.H. Virginia Department for Aging and Rehabilitative Services

OBJECTIVES Review of definitions What is the potential population of students/youth with disabilities? What is the potential population by district? Mapping: What are the high demand areas? Can we pilot “pre-ets” counselors in these high demand areas only? What disabilities can we expect to see in this population? What have been the outcomes for these populations? What are the length of time variables? How many swd do we lose? How many will be transferred to adult case loads? What is the cost to serve these clients? Where are we with the 15% dollar requirement? What may PERT contribute? What are the cost to serve the 14-16 year old specifically?

Difference Between 504 and IDEA 504 is a civil rights law that prohibits discrimination against individuals with disabilities. Section 504 ensures that the child with a disability has equal access to an education. Does not require a school to provide an IEP. Students are eligible for accommodations under a 504 Plan if he or she has a physical or mental health disability that limits one or more major life functions. Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) must have one of thirteen disabilities and require special education to progress. IDEA requires and IEP. Fewer safeguards are available to the child with a disability and the child’s parents under 504 plan than under IDEA. Autism Deaf-blindness Deafness Emotional disturbance Hearing impairment Intellectual disability Multiple disabilities Orthopedic impairment Other health impairment (including ADHD) Specific learning disability (including dyslexia, dyscalculia and dysgraphia, among others) Speech or language impairment Traumatic brain injury Visual impairment, including blindness

Chart: Transition Services and Pre-Employment Transition Services REVIEW OF STUDENTS WITH DISABILITIES AND YOUTH WITH DISABILITIES UNDER WIOA COMPARED TO PAST RSA TRANSITION SERVICES DEFINITION Chart: Transition Services and Pre-Employment Transition Services “OLD” Transition Services Pre-Employment Transition Services Under “WIOA” Available To  RSA definition for Youth with Disabilities age 14 to 24 years of age. Students with Disabilities age 14 to 22 in Virginia, AND enrolled in school with IEP OR 504 with an active education goal OR receiving services under IDEA (spec ed. but also homeschooling, juvenile justice programs etc.) Youth W Disability 14-24 VR Eligibility Must apply for and be determined eligible for VR services Do not have to be determined eligible for VR services. Individual Plan for Employment (IPE) Required IPE not required Level of Services Broad and highly flexible Narrow and relatively specific

Youth with Disabilities Students with Disabilities VR and Youth Under WIOA Youth with Disabilities 14-24 Individual with a Disability Age 14 to 24 All Students With Disabilities are Youth With Disabilities, but not all Youth With Disabilities are Students With Disabilities Students with Disabilities Age 14 to 22 Enrolled in school with IEP or Section 504 or special education under IDEA Must Have Active Educational Goal (Up to 12th Grade) or receiving services under IDEA.

Students With Disabilities

VA DOE reported 165,555 children with disabilities enrolled in Virginia Schools for the 2015-16 academic year with 48,920 in grades 9 through 12. So in theory we could be looking at close to 50,000 students in Virginia affected by WIOA.

Number of SWD Served In Past SFY # Clients Plan-Closure Status Data based on Age @ Plan Signature, having iep or 504 and receiving services % Change SFY14 8,019 SFY15 8,229 3% increase SFY16 8,900 8% increase Conclusions Of all 9-12 graders identified by DOE we are serving only 18% currently. # clients DARS served has increased …8% increase from 2015 to 2016. We are currently serving fewer than the equivalent of one grade of need in Va. (Average for 9-12 grade DOE is 12,799 clients from slide 6) Pre-ETS could potentially increase those seeking services and significantly stretch our resources. These numbers are conservatively low as only looking at plan to closure. Clients served application to closure based on age at plan signature. Changed to plan-closure for the number served to match age at plan signature. The number includes only consumers with a listed IEP or 504 at application, or is listed as having received services under an IEP.

District Outlook Number of Potential Students With Disability By District SFY14-16 (Data: Age at plan signature 14-22 # plan-closure with IEP or 504 and receiving services) SFY Northern Rappahannock Capitol Hampton Roads Blue Ridge New River Southwest ’14 1,672 490 1,413 1,715 839 899 991 ’15 1,909 498 1,390 1,730 760 1,029 913 ‘16 2,165 563 1,528 1,937 743 1,064 900 %2016 24.3% 6.3% 17.2% 21.8% 8.3% 12.0% 10.1% Age at plan signature, number served is plan-closure. The number includes only consumers with a listed IEP or 504 at application, or is listed as having received services under an IEP, age 14-22 at plan. Northern , followed by Hampton Roads, and then Capitol have greatest population and will see greatest impact. DOE data for Districts and School available @ http://bi.vita.virginia.gov/doe_bi/rdPage.aspx?rdReport=Main&subRptName=SpecialEducation

Potential Students with Disabilities Currently Open 8/8 14-22 years @ Application with IEP/504 Do we want to have specialized counselors only in certain high density regions? Arlington. Richmond, Tidewater Geographically Where Is Our Heaviest Concentration of Open Cases As of 8/8/16 IEP/504 @ Application Educational Goals Not Included

Top 10 Primary Disabilities for Potential Students With Disabilities Currently Open Cases Age 14-22 on 8/8/16 with IEP/504 @ Application = 7,037 Primary Disability Number of Cases Open Age 14-22 with IEP/504 as of 8/8/16 % With Listed Disability WIOA Previous RSA Transition Change Specific Learning Disabilities 1861 26% 24% -2 Autism 1593 23% 15% +8 Intellectual Disability 1482 21% 18% +3% Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) 1066 Congenital Condition or Birth Injury 310 4% Depressive and other Mood Disorders 293 Cerebral Palsy 164 2% Mental Illness (not listed elsewhere) 106 1% Physical Disorders/Conditions (not listed elsewhere) 91 Anxiety Disorders 71 Definitions matter and change the population we are reporting on and serving We may be serving a more severe population under WIOA Age 14-22 as of 8/8/16. Includes cases that have listed iep/504 at application but no filter for educational goals. Cause Unknown is 221 cases but not included in this list. Old RSA tran 18.5% intell disabled, 15% autism

Total Amount of Money Spent on Students With Disabilities BFY 14- BFY 16 Age 14-22 at time of service, Cost are for budget fiscal year SFY Northern Rappahannock Capitol Hampton Roads Blue Ridge New River Southwest State SFY14 Total $2,243,746.22 $755,701.16 $1,864,708.26 $2,448,843.56 $958,889.86 $1,021,635.73 $508,480.49 $9,802,005.28 SFY15 Total $2,074,286.22 $630,858.59 $1,878,813.08 $2,398,766.50 $900,024.05 $1,196,746.12 $628,518.92 $9,708,013.48 SFY16 $1,981,591.64 $590,214.99 $1,795,803.33 $1,932,641.54 $791,692.00 $1,010,758.77 $565,576.55 $8,668,278.82 Average $2,099,874.69 $658,924.91 $1,846,441.56 $2,260,083.87 $883,535.30 $1,076,380.21 $567,525.32 $9,392,765.86 Age 14-24 at time service began. Costs are for the budget fiscal year. Hampton Roads spend most followed by Northern and Capitol.

Total Amount of Money Spent on Students With Disabilities SFY 2017 YTD That Would Go to 15% Age 14-22 at service delivery for those with active educational goal, 504 and/or IEP SFY Northern Rappahannock Capitol Hampton Roads Blue Ridge New River Southwest State SFY 17 – Pre-Ets YTD $696.78 $0 $335.40 $195.96 $1,228.14 SFY17 Total - YTD $3,259.06 $86.00 $684.06 $762.15 $4,846.79 $9,638.06 Age 14-22 at time the service began. Service occurred when there was an active educational goal, 504/IEP required. I updated this from the last measure to include cases that were closed at 8/8/16 but received the service in SFY 2017 YTD Relatively little money has been spent on SWD in SFY17 (June 1-August 8) Extrapolates out to $50,983.94 for the year Important to remember that to get counted must have following data elements checked: active educational goal or special education under IDEA +504 or IEP 14-22 at service delivery time

Number of WWRC PERT CASES SFY 2014-2016 Initial PERT Evaluation PERT Situational Assessment PERT Transition Academy PERT Community Assessment Total PERT Costs – PERT Tuition 2014 445 50 36 14 545 $1,416,280.00 2015 456 51 39 560 $1,467,169.00 2016 457 38 47 10 564 $1,437,357.00 Average 453 46 41 13 556 $1,440,268.67 SFY 2016 includes 12 cases in WWRC Manufacturing Academy in the Total PERT. Numbers are for WWRC cases and may include duplicated consumers going to WWRC for multiple PERT services on more than one WWRC case. Initial PERT Evaluation and PERT Transition Academy numbers for SFY 2014 and SFY 2015 match the numbers from the WWRC Annual Report (no report for SFY 2016). Unique clients (based on Case Master ID) for Total PERT in SFY 2014-2016: 1,531. 1 Cases was WWRC Case Type (Non-VR). Costs - PERT Tuition is just the Tuition charge for consumers in all residences per year, but does not include ancillary services for PERT consumers while they were at WWRC. From the WWRC Charge Analysis automated into one table. Does include the situational assessment costs. PERT’s Contribution to the 15% would be in the 1.4 million dollar range according to past data.

What Services Are Used by Clients Age 14-16 What Services Are Used by Clients Age 14-16? Do Services Differ From Older Clients? Data is total from 2014 through 2016 for clients who were 14-16 @ time of service Service Category Amount Spent % of All Supported Employment and JCTS $30,957.40 40.8% Work Adjustment Training $19,437.12 25.6% Non Medical Supplies and Services $10,626.00 14.0% Medical and Therapeutic $6,922.00 9.1% Durable Medical Equipment $2,058.00 2.7% Modifications – Home/Vehicle and Rehab Engineering $1,521.20 2.0% Interpretive Services $999.50 1.3% Training, including Tuition $977.35 Fuel, Travel and Transportation $963.70 Diagnostics $730.10 1.0% Work Incentive Services $650.00 0.9% Total $75,842.37 100.0% Age 14-16 at time of service, SFY 2014-2016, no other filters, SE/JCTS is primarily situational assessment.

Closure Status For SWD 2014-2016 40% Successfully Closed 60% Unsuccessful

Historical Reasons for Unsuccessful Closure SWD

Historically What Age Do SWD Close? Average Age @Closure Status Data is for clients 14-22 @ application with IEP/504 SFY 2014 SFY 2015 SFY 2016 Closed Before Eligibility 20 Closed From Waiting List 19 Closed Before Plan Signature Closed After Plan Signature 21 Successfully Closed All Closures Average age at closure for the consumers who were age 14-22 at application with an IEP or 504 plan

Length of time between statuses for Potential Students With Disability, cases closed SFY14-16 Length of Time App-Eligibility Length of Time Eligibility-Plan (not counting time on OOS) Length of time Plan-Closure Length of Time App-Closure Successfully Closed Cases, Age 14-22 at Application with IEP/504 plan or receiving services under iep @ 14-22 . 2014 39 222 810 1110 2015 37 216 759 1051 2016 40 236 795 1107 Closed Unsuccessfully After Plan Signatures, Age 14-22 at Application with IEP/504 plan. 42 204 907 1184 38 209 826 1117 45 867 1152 Age at application, length of time is for consumers closed in each SFY. The number includes only consumers with a listed IEP or 504 at application, or is listed as having received services under an IEP, age 14-22 at application *All Lengths of time in Days

Outcomes for Potential Students With Disabilities Age 14-22 at time of Closure with IEP or 504 at application and listed as receiving services SFY # Successful Closures Average Hourly Wage 2014 1,036 $8.77 2015 1,067 $8.95 2016 1,090 $9.35 Youth with disabilities for this is 14-22 at time of closure, with a listed IEP or 504 at application or is listed as receiving services under an IEP.

Outcomes Potential Students With Disabilities By District Age 14-22 @ Closure with IEP or 504 @ Application or is listed as Receiving Services Under an IEP SFY Northern Rappahannock Capitol Hampton Roads Blue Ridge New River Southwest 2014 207 83 158 230 90 137 131 2015 193 65 246 106 162 2016 227 69 161 237 112 140 144 Age 14-22 at closure, with a listed IEP or 504 at application or is listed as receiving services under an IEP.

Conclusions Definitions of swd and ywd are complex. Documentation is crucial. We will be serving significantly more clients. Predict all districts will be affected but Northern, Hampton Roads and Capitol will be more significantly affected. These clients have a somewhat different demographic profile then DARS clients as whole with 44% with Autism or Intellectual Disabilities. DOE data will give you an idea of the population in each school, and district along with disability profile. Good tool for planning. For AWARE and accounting purposes we need to make sure we capture data points (iep/504, and active educational goal and special education goals. Definitions and data matter! Can expect 40% successful closures for students with disabilities. Of unsuccessful closures 45% were unable to locate, but 32% were no longer interested in services. Average age of closures for students with disabilities is 21. Will close 3-4 years after transfer to adult case load, assuming some clients may be 17 at graduation and assuming that these client s will go to adult caseload. Takes on average 3 years for students with disabilities to close successfully now. Expect a change in length of time data from status to status. Expect 1,000 closures per year from students with disabilities statewide. District wise closure numbers are low. This will impact our overall # of closures. Youth with disability will add another 1,000 clients. Do we want to have specialized counselors in high density areas only? Do we want to have a pilot area for evaluation purposes? Documentation is key to capture swd/ywd!

YOUTH WITH DISABILITIES

# Clients (Plan-Closure) Number of Youth With Disabilities SFY 14-16 Application to Closure Based On Age at Plan Signature SFY # Clients (Plan-Closure) % Change SFY14 9,508 SFY15 9,739 2.4% SFY16 10,487 7.7% Clients served application to closure based on age at plan signature. Changed to plan-closure for the number served to match age at plan signature.

Number of Youth With Disability By Region SFY14-16 Number Plan to Closure Base on Age at Plan Signature SFY Northern Rappahannock Capitol Hampton Roads Blue Ridge New River Southwest ’14 1959 575 1659 2059 1053 1055 1148 ’15 2196 585 1646 2095 957 1203 1057 ‘16 2444 660 1791 2369 934 1224 1065 ‘16% of State 23% 6% 17% 9% 12% 10% Age at plan signature, number served is plan-closure.

Outcomes for Youth With Disabilities Based on Age 14-24 @ Closure SFY # Successful Closures Average Hourly Wage 2014 1,456 $8.82 2015 1,527 $8.94 2016 1,522 $9.40 Youth with disabilities for this is 14-24 at time of closure.

Outcomes Youth With Disabilities By Region Based On Age 14-24 @ Closure SFY Northern Rappahannock Capitol Hampton Roads Blue Ridge New River Southwest 2014 305 104 233 310 134 176 194 2015 295 100 224 326 164 202 216 2016 330 96 239 328 158 183 188 Age 14-24 at closure