Global Macroeconomic Outlook: The Race is On

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Presentation transcript:

Global Macroeconomic Outlook: The Race is On Association of International Credit & Trade Finance Professionals Tuesday, 19 April, 2016 Chicago, Illinois Stuart Bergman Deputy Chief Economist and Director, Economic and Political Intelligence Centre

Terminal Velocity EDC Economics’ Commodity Price Index (2004-2008 avg Sources: Haver Analytics, EDC Economics

Currency Crash Commodity-Linked Currencies Follow Suit Sources: Haver Analytics, MSCI, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Fear is here! CBOE Market Volatility Index, VIX Sources: Wall Street Journal, Haver Analytics

Global GDP (% change) and Trade Volumes (SA, 2005=100) The Great Recession Global GDP (% change) and Trade Volumes (SA, 2005=100) Sources: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, IMF, Haver Analytics

Public Sector Response Quantitative Easing Cash injection Bailouts Interest rate cuts Source: EDC Economics

Now That’s a Balance Sheet Now That’s a Balance Sheet! Total Assets of the Federal Reserve (USD, millions) QE III QE II QE I Sources: Federal Reserve Board

Global GDP (% change) and Trade Volumes (SA, 2005=100) V-Shaped Recovery? Global GDP (% change) and Trade Volumes (SA, 2005=100) Sources: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, IMF, Haver Analytics

Housing starts, requirements, balance (SAAR, ‘000 units) US Pent Up Demand Housing starts, requirements, balance (SAAR, ‘000 units) Sources: US Census Bureau, NAR, Haver Analytics

US Employment: Going critical? Unemployment rate (%), employment change (‘000) Sources: US Census Bureau, NAR, Haver Analytics

Impact of Oil Prices Sources: EDC Economics

US Consumers: Is there a problem US Consumers: Is there a problem? Inflation-adjusted retail sales (USD, millions) Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Haver Analytics

Private Sector Investment: Spot the drag Nonresidential Investment (SAAR, Chn.2009$), % chg. Y/Y Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics

Construction Spending Resurgence Value of private construction put in place (index 2011=100) Sources: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics

Manufacturing Capacity Crunch Capacity utilization (% of previous peak) Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics

Divergent impact on manufacturers (SA, >50 = expansion) Tale of a Strong Dollar Divergent impact on manufacturers (SA, >50 = expansion) Sources: Markit, Nikkei, ISM, Haver Analytics

EU 28 export volumes to the US (SWDA, 2010 = 100) Tale of a Strong Dollar EU 28 export volumes to the US (SWDA, 2010 = 100) US$ 1.48/€ Sources: Statistical Office of the European Communities, Haver Analytics

A Good Sign for Future Investment? EA 19 capital goods orders (SWDA, 2010 = 100) Sources: European Central Bank, Haver Analytics

Public Sector Response Quantitative Easing Cash injection Bailouts Interest rate cuts Source: EDC Economics

LME copper ($/tonne), WTI ($/barrel) Follow the Cash LME copper ($/tonne), WTI ($/barrel) Sources: EIA, CME, LME, Haver Analytics

17 December, 2015 We have ‘liftoff’

Crude Reality? WTI ($/barrel) Sources: EIA, CME, Haver Analytics

Developing Markets: Feeling the pain Annual GDP growth (%) Sources: EDC Economics, IMF WEO

The Race is On

Opportunities Abound: Canadian Emerging Market potential Emerging market rank* (1 = best) Market risk rank (1 = lowest risk) Market demand (1 = highest demand) Market competitiveness (1 = highest competitiveness) Canadian capabilities (1 = highest capabilities) Overall index rank Malaysia 1 26 9 13 31 7 China 2 52 4 44 22 United Arab Emirates 3 35 69 37 23 Thailand 42 36 33 18 25 Poland 5 28 39 47 *Excluding Mexico Sources: EDC Economics

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