The World Weather Research Programme Thomas Jung, Sarah Jones and Paolo Ruti

The World Weather Research Programme WMO’s mechanism to foster and progress cooperative research for improved weather and environmental prediction services from minutes to months Mission “The WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) promotes international and interdisciplinary research for more accurate and reliable forecasts from minutes to seasons, expanding the frontiers of weather science to enhance society’s resilience to high-impact weather and the value of weather information for users. WWRP aims at Seamless Prediction by increasing convergence between weather, climate and environmental approaches. WWRP strengthens academic – operational partnerships and interdisciplinary collaborations, and enhances the role of Early Career Scientists.”

4 History 1998 - 2017 > 20 50 + Highest Achievements Countries Involved in Research and Capacity Building Global and Regional Research Projects PPP The Polar Prediction Project TOMACS Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study for Extreme Weather Resilient Cities MAP Mesoscale Alpine Programme HYMEX Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment Today’s 6-day forecast is as accurate as 4-day twenty years ago AMMA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis THORPEX – The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment S2S The Subseasonal to Seasonal Project Sydney 2000 Olympic Games HIWeather High Impact Weather Project Ensemble forecasting became the cornerstone of nowadays prediction Innovative solutions in high performance computing and data storage Unprecedented capacity to integrate millions of daily data in predictions

WWRP activities will address four societal challenges Activities for 2016 - 2023 WWRP activities will address four societal challenges Research activities focus on: Process understanding and assessment of needs on various scales Novel observations, coupled modelling and advanced methods Addressing limitations and uncertainty in predictions Verification, application and attribution

How will this be achieved? WWRP Working Groups: (Experts from Met Services, Universities and Research Institutions) Data Assimilation and Observing Systems Socio-Economic Research Applications Predictability, Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting Nowcasting and Mesoscale Research Tropical Meteorology Weather Modification Verification (together with WCRP) Core Projects: Key Partners National and International Research Projects Commission for Hydrology (CHy) Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) Working Group on Numerical Experimentation

High Impact Weather Project (HIWeather) Growing resilience through better warnings Mission: “Promote co-operative international research to achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication & utility in social, economic & environmental applications” Co-Chairs: Brian Golding (Met Office), David Johnston (U Massey, NZ) See also https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/high_impact_weather_project.html Christof Stache/AFP/Getty Images; Marina Shemesh /publicdomainpictures.net; Alexandros Vlachos/EPA; NOAA NWS; NOAA NWS

Scope defined by a set of hazards © www.thamai.net Urban Flood: Reducing mortality, morbidity, damage and disruption from flood inundation by intense rain, out-of-bank river flow, coastal wave & surge overtopping and from consequent urban landslides. © Tommy Hindley/ Professional Sport Disruptive Winter Weather: Reducing mortality, morbidity, damage and disruption from snow, ice and fog to transport, power & communications infrastructure. MALAO@pictzz.blogspot.com Wildfire: Reducing mortality, morbidity, damage and disruption from wildfires & their smoke. © www.energydigital.com Urban Heat Waves & Air Pollution: Reducing mortality, morbidity and disruption from extreme heat & pollution in the megacities of the developing and newly developed world. © Adrian Pearman/Caters Extreme Local Wind: Reducing mortality, morbidity, damage and disruption from wind & wind blown debris in tropical & extra-tropical cyclones, downslope windstorms & convective storms, including tornadoes.

Five research objectives 10km scale Error Growth Minutes Processes & Predictability: Initiation & evolution of hazard-related weather systems Multi-scale Forecasting: Multi-scale prediction of weather hazards in coupled modelling systems Infrastructure and density of vulnerable people Human Impacts, Vulnerability & Risk: Hazard impacts on individuals, communities & businesses, their vulnerability & risk Seven cross-cutting activities Operational Forecasting Observing Strategies Uncertainty Knowledge Transfer Verification Impact Forecasting Data Management & Archiving Communication: Achieving more effective responses to forecasts through better communication of hazard risk warnings Evaluation: Measure skill and value of forecasts & warnings at all stages of production to focus research in weak areas & support users in developing responses

Bridging the gap between weather and climate Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S) Bridging the gap between weather and climate Objectives: Improve forecast skill and understanding on the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centres and exploitation by the applications community Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services Co-Chairs: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF), Andrew Robertson (IRI) See also http://s2sprediction.net/

Madden-Julian Oscillation Verification and Products Sub-Projects and Research Activities Sub-Projects Monsoons Africa Extremes Teleconnections Madden-Julian Oscillation Verification and Products Research Issues Modelling Issues Sources of predictability Teleconnections forecast opportunities Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling Scale interactions Physical processes → Initialisation Strategies Ensemble generation Role of resolution Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling Systematic errors Spread/Skill Relationship Multi-model combination

S2S Database Data Access - ECMWF Data Information 10 Global Ensemble Prediction Systems Status 27.01.17 Data Access - ECMWF http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/s2s/levtype=sfc/type=cf/ Data Information https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/S2S https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/S2S/Models

S2S Database S2S product website at ECMWF: Contains near real-time products (2m T, precip, Z500 anomaly maps, MJO forecasts, EFI…) from S2S models from 1st January 2016. http://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/projects/s2s/charts/s2s/ “S2S museum” at University of Tsukuba, Japan: Contains near real time indices (MJO, AO, NAO. SSW…) http://gpvjma.ccs.hpcc.jp/S2S/S2S_SICmap.html 2m Temperature SSW Index ECMWF NCEP JMA BoM

Thank you Merci

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