NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN UNTIL 2030 Government of the Republic of Tajikistan Session of the National Development Council under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN UNTIL 2030 Hamralizoda F.M. Assistant of the President of the Republic of Tajikistan on Economic Issues Dushanbe 2016

BASES OF THE CERTAIN PRIORITIES OF DEVELOPMENT DIRECTIONS UNTIL 2030 Addresses by the President of the Republic of Tajikistan; Election programs of the President of the Republic of Tajikistan; Implementation of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs); New global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) after 2015; 70th Session of the UN General Assembly; Evaluation and interpretation of the results of the implementation of the previous strategic documents; Draft of the National Development Concept for the period of 2050; Methodological recommendations for the development of NDS-2030; Further economic development in the context of the econometric model.

SUCCEED IN FUNCTIONAL BLOCK Poverty reduction trend (%) GDP growth in case of scenarios Share of external public debt to GDP (%) Inflation rate (%)

SUCCEED IN SOCIAL BLOCK Maternal mortality (in 100.000 live births) Children coverage by primary and secondary education

LESSONS LEARNED Though: Issues of improvement the efficiency use of the national resources, ensuring energy and food security, ecological and environmental sustainability, strengthening of diversification of economic activities and ensuring the competitiveness of the national economy require further activation; implementation of programs for private sector development and state cooperation with private sector require further improvement; reform of public administration system, strengthening of human capital and accelerate the regional development require new approaches to the solution of problems.

EXISTING PROBLEMS Low quality of services in the field of education and health; High level of maternal and child mortality, tuberculosis in remote regions; Increase of HIV/AIDS and non-infectious disease cases; Weak growth of number of preschool institutions; Poor quality of school infrastructure and lack of skills of teachers and educators; The shortage of electricity in the winter period;

EXISTING PROBLEMS (cont.) The problem of unequal access of women and men to the material and non-material resources; Affects of climate change on ecology and environment; Inadequate access to safe drinking water; Gaps between regions in social infrastructure development; Insufficient use of capacities in remote areas in the economic development of the country.

DIFFERENCES OF NDS-2030 FROM PREVIOUS NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES Long-term trends determine the country's social-economic development; Existing problems in the national economy sectors are counted as a single integrated system; 3 new scenarios: (1) Inertial (2) Industrial and (3) Industrial-Innovation; Contains 3 development Phases: Transition to a new model of economic development (2016-2020); Accelerated development phase, which is based on attraction of investments (2021-2025) and Phase of completion industrial rapidly increasing capacities based on knowledge and innovation (2026-2030).

STRATEGIC GOALS OF NDS-2030 Strengthening the four strategic objectives: : Ensuring energy independence and the efficient use of energy; Convert from Communications deadlock into a transit country; Ensure food security and public access to quality foods; Expand productive employment

Industrialised, means more efficient use of national resources; ПРИНСИПҲОИ АСОСӢ Preventive means to prevent (reduce) the vulnerability of future growth; Industrialised, means more efficient use of national resources; Innovation and development based on innovation in all areas of socio-economic life of the country.

SCENARIOS OF THE DEVELOPMENT Options of development Inertial Industrial Industrial-Innovation Expenditures on education and science in relation to GDP 5,0-5,5% 5,5-6,0% 7,0% Expenditure on health and social protection compared to GDP 7,5% 8-9% 10,0% The share of the agricultural sector to GDP 19,0% 14,1% 11,7% The share of industry in GDP 18,1% 20,1% 22,0% The share of services to GDP 50,4% 53,0% 52,8% The share of indirect taxes net of GDP Get low Get normal The average annual growth rate of GDP growth 4-5% 6-7% GDP growth 2 times 2,7 times 3,6 times GDP per capita 4000-5000 US dollars 5500-6000 US. dollars 7000-7500 US. Dollars

IMPLEMENTATION PHASES The first phase (2016-2020) - the transition to a new model of economic growth, investment, increase production aimed at export and import; The second phase (2021-2025) - the transition is based on the rapid growth in investment; The third phase (2026-2030) - the transition from industrialized growth strategies related to investments, to diversify production to knowledge-based innovation.

Conclusion Improvements structures at national and regional level on monitoring and evaluation; To streamline the delivery and exchange of reports between ministries, departments, regions and partners; At the level necessary to attract domestic and foreign capital for the full implementation of the NDS-2030 priorities.

Thanks for your attention!