2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://clasp.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2016 February 4, 2016 Organization of Earth’s Climate: The role of weather in climate and climate change: transporting energy and water, how humans experience climate; Why is weather organized the way it is organized: physical geography, rotation of planet, role in framing climate response and human impacts

Class Information and News Ctools site: CLIMATE_480_001_W16 Record of course Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action A tumbler site to help me remember http://openclimate.tumblr.com/

Resources and Recommended Reading Rood’s Series on Bumps and Wiggles Past, Present and Future of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Srokosz et al., BAMS, 2012 Organization of Earth’s Climate: The role of weather in climate and climate change: transporting energy and water, how humans experience climate; Why is weather organized the way it is organized: physical geography, rotation of planet, role in framing climate response and human impacts

Distribution of energy by atmosphere and ocean Outline: Class 8, Winter 2016 Distribution of energy by atmosphere and ocean “Internal” variability (Redux) Analysis How weather and climate is organized Physical geography Rotation of Earth Climate variability and change Organization of Earth’s Climate: The role of weather in climate and climate change: transporting energy and water, how humans experience climate; Why is weather organized the way it is organized: physical geography, rotation of planet, role in framing climate response and human impacts

Energy doesn’t just come and go The atmosphere and ocean are fluids. The horizontal distribution of energy, causes these fluids to move. That is, weather and ocean currents.

From Building the Radiative Balance Redistribution by atmosphere, ocean, etc. RS Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space 1) The absorbed solar energy is converted to terrestrial thermal energy. 2) Then it is redistributed by the atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, life. CLOUD ATMOSPHERE SURFACE

Consider the Distribution of Energy Latitudinal dependence of heating and cooling Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space After the redistribution of energy, the emission of infrared radiation from the Earth is ~ equal from all latitudes. CLOUD ATMOSPHERE Because of tilt of Earth, Solar Radiation is absorbed preferentially at the Equator (low latitudes). SURFACE South Pole (Cooling) Equator (On average heating) North Pole (Cooling)

Transfer of heat north and south is an important element of the climate at the Earth’s surface. Redistribution by atmosphere, ocean, etc. Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space This predisposition for parts of the globe to be warm and parts of the globe to be cold means that measuring global warming is difficult. Some parts of the world could, in fact, get cooler because this warm and cool pattern could be changed. What is a scenario for record cold temperatures in northern Mexico? CLOUD ATMOSPHERE heat is moved to poles cool is moved towards equator cool is moved towards equator SURFACE This is a transfer. Both ocean and atmosphere are important

Transport of heat poleward by atmosphere and oceans This is an important part of the climate system. One could stand back far enough in space, average over time, and perhaps average this away. This is, however, weather ... and weather is how we feel the climate day to day It will change because we are changing the distribution of heating and increasing the energy in the system.

Internal Variability

Sources of internal variability There is “natural” variability. Solar variability Volcanic activity Internal “dynamics” Atmosphere - Weather Ocean Atmosphere-ocean interactions Atmosphere-ocean-land-ice interactions “Natural” does not mean that these modes of variability remain constant as the climate changes. Separation of “natural” and “human-caused.”

Some Aspects of Climate Variability One of the ways to think about climate variability is to think about persistent patterns of weather Rainy periods Floods Dry periods Droughts During these times the weather for a region does not appear random – it perhaps appears relentless

An example of variability: Seasons Cold Warm Cold Temperature Messy Messy Winter Summer Winter More than hot and cold, weather type is different. The transitional seasons are messy, sort of bouncing back and first. This is “forced” variability due to the seasonal cycle of the Sun. Rain comes in fronts Rain comes in thunderstorms Forced variability responding to solar heating

Wave Motion and Climate

Year-to-Year Changes in Winter Temperatures Differences Relative to 1961-1990 Average Late 1970s 2006-2011 From Jim Hurrell

Modes of Climate Variability Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. El Niño – La Niña What is El Niño North Atlantic Oscillation Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation Annular Mode Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic Pacific Decadal Oscillation

What is short-term and long-term? Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ... LONG SHORT ENERGY SECURITY Election time scales CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMY There are short-term issues important to climate change. 0 years 25 years 50 years 75 years 100 years

Time Scales of Variability LONG SHORT Pacific Decadal Oscillation Arctic Oscillation 0 years 25 years 50 years 75 years 100 years El Niño / La Niña

Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction: El-Niño

Changes during El Niño

Some good El Niño Information NOAA Climate Prediction: Current El Niño / La Niña NOAA CPC: Excellent slides on El Niño

GISS Temperature 2002 1997-98 El Niño

January 2011 Temperature Anomalies El Niño / La Niña Signal

Modes of Climate Variability Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. El Niño – La Niña What is El Niño North Atlantic Oscillation Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation Annular Mode Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic Pacific Decadal Oscillation

North Atlantic Oscillation Positive Phase U.S. East, Mild and Wet Europe North, Warm and Wet Canada North & Greenland, Cold and Dry Negative Phase U.S. East, Cold Air Outbreaks, Snow (dry) Europe North, Cold; South, Wet Greenland, Warm

January 2011 Temperature Anomalies Arctic Oscillation Signal

Modes of Climate Variability Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. El Niño – La Niña What is El Niño North Atlantic Oscillation Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation Annular Mode Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Pacific Decadal Oscillation Does the Pacific Decadal Oscillation operate regularly lasting 20-30 years, and does southern California experience droughts during that period? The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is one of several “oscillations” that are important to weather and climate. Some attributes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Basics Colors: Sea Surface Temperature difference from long term average. Arrows: Stress on the ocean surface caused by winds Cool here Warm here Better version of figure from JISAO

January 2011 Temperature Anomalies Pacific Decadal Oscillation Signal

Some information on Pacific Decadal Oscillation Joint Institute for Study of Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO): Pacific Decadal Oscillation Climate Prediction Center (CPC): 90 Day Outlook Summary Weather and Climate Linkage National Climatic Data Center (NCDC): Decadal Oscillations Review Paper from Rood Class References Mantua and Hare (2002) J of Oceanography

How Weather is Organized

Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100 Heat Capacity Heat Transport Land Polar amplification: Why are North (Arctic) and South (Antarctic) different? Physical geography. Ocean can transport heat to the pole. Atmosphere can transport heat to pole. Antarctic continent blocks ocean, and topography, order 2 km, blocks atmosphere. Note “band” around Antarctica. 2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC 2001

Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100 Heat Capacity Heat Transport Ocean Polar amplification: Why are North (Arctic) and South (Antarctic) different? Physical geography. Ocean can transport heat to the pole. Atmosphere can transport heat to pole. Antarctic continent blocks ocean, and topography, order 2 km, blocks atmosphere. Note “band” around Antarctica. 2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC 2001

Atmosphere

Hurricanes and heat: Sea Surface Temperature

Weather Moves Heat from Tropics to the Poles HURRICANES

Mid-latitude cyclones & Heat

Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100 2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC 2001

Ocean

Ocean Surface Currents (From Steven Dutch, U Wisconsin, Green Bay) Good Material at National Earth Science Teachers Association

The Thermohaline Circulation (THC) (Global, organized circulation in the ocean) (The “conveyer belt”, “rivers” within the ocean) Blue shading, low salt Green shading, high salt Where there is localized exchange of water between the surface and the deep ocean (convection) Warm, surface currents. Cold, bottom currents.

In Class / Groups / Discussion Thermohaline Circulation Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation In groups discuss Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation / Gulf Stream How does it affect climate? How does variability affect climate? Consider: Temperature, Ice Melting, Wind, Saltiness,

Climate variability and change

Time Scales of Variability LONG SHORT Pacific Decadal Oscillation Arctic Oscillation 0 years 25 years 50 years 75 years 100 years El Niño / La Niña

January 2011 Temperature Anomalies El Niño / La Niña Signal

GISS Temperature 2002 1997-98 El Niño

Roles of Uncertainty / Variability at Different Times Hawkins and Sutton, 2009

Distribution of energy by atmosphere and ocean Summary: Class 8, Winter 2016 Distribution of energy by atmosphere and ocean Greenhouse gases change energy balance Atmosphere and oceans transport energy “Internal” variability (Redux) Modes of internal variability organize weather in spatial and temporal patterns Organization of Earth’s Climate: The role of weather in climate and climate change: transporting energy and water, how humans experience climate; Why is weather organized the way it is organized: physical geography, rotation of planet, role in framing climate response and human impacts

Summary: Class 8, Winter 2016 How weather and climate is organized Rotation of Earth Location of land-water Tilt of axis Thermal characteristics Climate variability and change Climate change occurs on a background of variability. We can diagnose the variability, it is more difficult to predict. Organization of Earth’s Climate: The role of weather in climate and climate change: transporting energy and water, how humans experience climate; Why is weather organized the way it is organized: physical geography, rotation of planet, role in framing climate response and human impacts

Distribution of energy by atmosphere and ocean Outline: Class 8, Winter 2016 Distribution of energy by atmosphere and ocean “Internal” variability (Redux) Analysis How weather and climate is organized Physical geography Rotation of Earth Climate variability and change Organization of Earth’s Climate: The role of weather in climate and climate change: transporting energy and water, how humans experience climate; Why is weather organized the way it is organized: physical geography, rotation of planet, role in framing climate response and human impacts

Projects Abrupt climate change Consequences of rapid change in the Arctic Analysis of the warming “hiatus”