Unit II Population and Migration

Gapminder 200 Countries, 200 Years http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=jbkSRLYSojo

Concepts (Key Issue 1) Demography Key Issue 1- Where is the World’s Population Distributed? Population Concentrations East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Europe, Eastern North America

World Population Cartogram

World Population Trends

Counter to World Trends Russia offers a bonus payment of about $10,000 for having a 2nd child.

Concepts (Key Issue 1) Sparsely Populated Regions Ecumene-Earth’s surface occupied by permanent settlement. Places that are sparsely populated: Dry Lands, Wet Lands, Cold Lands, High Lands Population Density Arithmetic, Physiological, Agricultural

Concepts (Key Issue 2) Key Issue 2- Where has the Population Increased? Crude Birth Rate (CBR) (Out of 1000) Crude Death Rate (CDR) (Out of 1000) Natural Increase Rate (NIR) (%) Understand How to determine NIR (CBR – CDR) ÷ 10 = NIR %

Crude Birth Rate

Natural Increase Rate

Concepts (Key Issue 2) Doubling Time Fertility Total fertility Rate (TFR) – Avg. number of children throughout childbearing years (15-49) TFR for the World is 2.5 TFR exceeds 5 in sub-Saharan Africa TFR is 2 or less in nearly all European countries TFR in the US is 1.88

TFR

US TFR

Concepts (Key Issue 2) Infant Mortality rate (IMR) – The annual number of deaths of infants under one year of age, compared with total live births. (As with CBR and CDR, the IMR is often expressed out of 1000)

Concepts (Key Issue 2) Life Expectancy Compare LDC’s with MDC’s

Life Expectancy at Birth

Life Expectancy (State/Similar County)

Concepts (Key Issue 3) Why is Population Increasing at Different Rates in Different Countries? The Demographic Transition Stages 1-5

Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

DTM Stage 1 Low Growth Agricultural Revolution Characterized by a: High Crude Death Rate (CDR) and High Crude Birth Rate (CBR) this keeps the population around the same

DTM Stage 2 High Growth Industrial Revolution Medical Revolution (20th Century) Characterized by a: Dropping Crude Death Rate (CDR) and High Crude Birth Rate (CBR) This causes the population to rise

DTM Stage 3 Moderate Growth Characterized by a: Crude Death Rate (CRD) continues to fall but levels off and the high Crude Birth Rate (CBR) begins to drop sharply but is still higher than the Crude Death Rate (CDR) so there is still population growth but at a slower pace.

DTM Stage 4 Low Growth Characterized by a: Crude Birth Rate (CBR) declines to the point that it equals the Crude Death Rate (CDR) causing the Natural Increase Rate (NIR) to approach zero. This causes Zero Population Growth (ZPG). America (4 and 5)

DTM Stage 5 Negative Growth Characterized by: Crude Birth Rate (CBR) drops below the Crude Death Rate (CDR) causing a decrease in the population.

DTM Example in England Stage 1: Low growth until 1750 Stage 2: High growth 1750-1880 Stage 3: Moderate growth 1880- early 1970’s Stage 4: Early 1970’s – Present? Stage 5: ?

Other Concepts Dependency Ratio- people who are too young or old to work (0-14 and over 65) A larger dependency ratio implies greater financial burden on the working class (85% in sub-Saharan Africa, while 47 percent in Europe)

Look at how the data is presented Age dependency ratio (% of working-age population) Year Value 2011 48.91 2012 49.21 2013 49.67 2014 50.26

Sex Ratio – number of males per 100 females -Developed countries have more females than males because they tend to live 7 years longer.

Sex Ratio

Population Pyramids Fertility and Mortality vary not only spatially but also temporally within a country Display of a countries population using an age and gender based bar graph X-Axis % male displayed to the left of zero % female displayed to the right of zero Y-Axis Age cohorts typically grouped in 5yr intervals Youngest displayed at bottom oldest at top

Population Pyramid

Population Pyramid

How would you illustrate each of the five stages of the DTM using population pyramids?

Concepts (Key Issue 3) Applying the DTM and Population Pyramids to various countries http://populationpyramid.net/ Lets remember the information comes from census data (in the US it is collected every ten years)

Concepts (Key Issue 4) Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem? Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) An Essay on the Principle of Population Where is Malthus right, and where is he wrong?

Thomas Malthus

Malthus (right or wrong?)

Neo-Malthusians Many believe that a “Malthusian” catastrophe is still a possibility. 1. Sustainability- Can we keep up with future population growth food demands? 2. 1st World citizen consumes 8 times that of a 3rd world citizen. (We no longer use 1st and 3rd) 3. Natural Resources over time will become depleted. Will the world in 2100 have enough resources and materials?

Epidemiological Transition Model (Supporting CDR numbers in the DTM) Epidemiologic Transition Model - Medical research has identified an epidemiological transition that focuses on distinct health threats to each stage of the DTM Stage 1: Pestilence and Famine (High CDR) Principal cause of death: infectious and parasitic diseases (Ex: Bubonic plague)

Epidemiologic Transition Model (continued) Stage 2: Receding Pandemic (Rapidly Declining CDR) Pandemic: a disease that occurs over a wide geographic area and affects a very high proportion of the population. What helps reduce the spread of disease? sanitation, nutrition, medicine Famous Cholera pandemic in London in the mid nineteenth century is an example

Cholera Pandemic

Epidemiologic Transition Model (continued) Stage 3: Degenerative Diseases (Moderately Declining CDR) -Decrease in deaths from infections diseases. -Increase in chronic disorders connected to aging such as cardiovascular disease, and cancer Stage 4: Delayed Degenerative Diseases (Low but Increasing CDR) - Deaths caused by cardiovascular disease and cancer delayed because of modern medicine.

Epidemiologic Transition Model (continued) Reasons for possible stage 5 -Evolution- infections disease microbes evolve and establish a resistance to drugs and insecticides. Antibiotics and genetic engineering contributes to the emergence of new strains of viruses and bacteria. -Poverty- Infections diseases are more prevalent in poor areas because of conditions and inability to afford drugs for treatment. -Increased Connections- Advancements in modes of transportation, especially air travel, connects the world and its infections more. Some portions of this came from http://slideplayer.com/slide/756856/