Industry Viewpoint – Block 0 Carlos Cirilo Assistant Director Infrastructure Strategy 16 November 2012

57 million jobs 2030 82 million jobs $6.9 trillion $2.2 trillion $2.2 trillion in economic activity. Aviation projected 5% annual growth to 2030, to: 5.9 billion passengers nearly 150 million tonnes of cargo . 82 million jobs and $6.9 trillion of global GDP. Industry Viewpoint - Block 0 16 November 2012

Traffic growth Outpacing Capacity The Challenge Traffic growth Capacity must keep pace Safety must be maintained or increased Environment Impact on the industry For 1% of growth held back until 2020, economy would forfeit: 14 million jobs over $1 trillion in GDP Traffic growth Outpacing Capacity

Aviation emissions challenge…… 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 Million tonnes CO2 628 Mt (2010F) Pre-recession ICAO forecast Post-recession IATA forecast © IATA CO2 emissions from the global fuel burn of commercial airlines Industry Viewpoint - Block 0 16 November 2012 4

Global Aviation Industry Targets 2010 2020 2050 1.5% p/a fuel efficiency Working towards Carbon-Neutral Growth Carbon-Neutral Growth from 2020 Implementation of global sectoral approach 50% reduction in net CO2 emissions over 2005 levels Industry Viewpoint - Block 0 16 November 2012 5

ASBU What is the Solution? Industry Viewpoint - Block 0 16 November 2012

Focus on Block 0 Block 0 (2013) Performance Improvement Areas Airport Operations Globally Interoperable Systems and Data Optimum Capacity and Flexible Flights So what makes Block 0 unique? For Block 0, no new airborne technologies are required. However, it may be necessary to increase the participating aircraft to improve the size of the benefit to ensure payback and the ability to close the business case. Each of the Modules or capabilities included have are operational in at least two diverse operational areas. These are not trial programs, but are fully functional including procedures, approvals, certification, standards, etc. Each module has been evaluated against a “readiness checklist” to ensure that the operational criteria have been met. Efficient Flight Path Industry Viewpoint - Block 0 7 16 November 2012 Global Air Navigation Industry Symposium 20-23 September 2011 7 7

Global Air Navigation Industry Symposium 20-23 September 2011 B0: Capabilities available in 2013 Planning Decisions based on business case and validation results as developed during the previous phase B3 B0 B2 B1 SIMPLIFIED LIFECYCLE V0 Identification of Needs V1 V1 Concept Definition V2 V2 Feasibility R&D V3 V3 Pre-Industrial Development and Integration - V4 V4 Industrialisation Implementation Decision V5 V5 Deployment Decision V6 V6 Operations Operations This will be an evolving set of solutions. Block 0 is based on existing, fielded capabilities and includes installed aircraft functionality. Within the Aviation System Block Upgrades it represents the Initial Operating Capability available for use in 2013. The next capabilities to be introduced will be described as Block 1 in 2018. In the case of Block 1, one of several “readiness” characteristics have not been met. But it is expected that over the next 5 years those modules will mature to enable the next level of capabilities to ensure implementation. Beyond that we expect that those capabilities that are maturing through a development phase will be moved to an operational capability in 2023. And further in time we anticipate that many of the capabilities in the research phases will move through the life cycle for release in the 2028+ time period. But back to Block 0. Decision V7 V7 Decommissioning Decision Standardisation activities IOC Initial Operational Capability Block Maturity Lifecycle Industry Viewpoint - Block 0 8 16 November 2012 Global Air Navigation Industry Symposium 20-23 September 2011

Block 0: Capabilities within our grasp overview Improved airport accessibility – using Performance-based Navigation (PBN) Improved flexibility and efficiency in descent profiles – Continuous Descent Operations (CDO) Improved flexibility and efficiency in departure profiles – Continuous Climb Operations (CCO) A review was undertaken on what would be the priority for “low hanging fruits” for block 0. The following 3 were identified: -improved airport accessibility using PBN -Improved flexibility and efficiency in descent profiles – Continuous descent operations -Improved flexibility and efficiency in departure profiles – Continuous Climb Operations Industry Viewpoint - Block 0 16 November 2012

Block 0: Capabilities within our grasp PBN PBN is today and we have to implement now: Main enabler for runway safety Increase accessibility of airports Increase of airspace efficiency Environmental solutions (noise and emissions) PBN is the key building block for next generation airspace concepts (SESAR, NextGen, CARATS, etc.) PBN today and now: Runway safety: Main enabler to address CFIT and unstabilized approaches Accessibility Due to flexibility and application of modern on-board avionics to its full extent, more rwys are accessible (previously not accessible, or by less safe circling, offset or steep angle e approaches) Efficiency: Through application of modern on-board avionics to its full extent, postioning of routes, Sids and Stars is not constraint anymore by location of navaids, but can be put virtually anywhere (airspace optimization, less fuel burn, less delays, workload decrease). CDO and CCO’s reduce fuel burn and noise. PBN is a prerequisite before starting next generation airspace concepts. Therefore a full commitment to PBN and education is a prerequisite before starting the next generation projects. Industry Viewpoint - Block 0

Implementing PBN Incentives can lead to early benefits The Air Navigation System benefits from early implementation Through Collaborative Decision Making Harmonized Requirements Incentives Operational Financial Mandate Industry Viewpoint - Block 0 16 November 2012

RNP Approach allows 3D use Safety - Accessibility RNP Approach RNP Approach allows 3D use Industry Viewpoint - Block 0 16 November 2012

Optimized Tracks ≈ 7 NM RNP AR Optimized Tracks Savings via: NIBAT – 3.8 NM EDLOR – 7.2 NM ORDEP – 10.3 NM KLAFU – 7.7 NM RABIV – 7 NM SIVAL – 5.7 NM ≈ 7 NM PBN Symposium 2012 16 October 2012

Block 0: Capabilities within our grasp CDO and CCO CDO and CCO provide significant benefits in terms of: Fuel burn reduction Gaseous emissions reduction Noise reduction CDO and CCO enabled by Performance-based Navigation Continuous Descent en Climb Operations are significant contributors to efficiency and environmental benefits, fuel burn, emission and noise reductions. These type of operations are very much linked to PBN. As these type of operations have a potential to consume a lot of airspace, the airspace design flexibility provided by PBN is indispensable. Industry Viewpoint - Block 0 16 November 2012

Continuous Descent Operations (CDOs) Save fuel 125-1400 lbs Up to 40% less noise Reduced radio transmissions Lower pilot workload Reduced hearback / readback errors 15

Fuel savings/emission reduction Atlanta CDO demo Published STAR West Flow operations 11 Tracks Vertical Profiles Miami CDO demo Published STAR East Flow operations 4 Tracks Vertical Profiles CDOs provide large benefits in fuel, emissions, and flight time reductions Atlanta (ATL) : North Arrival STAR at Atlanta (ATL) 144 Liters of fuel savings and 360kg reduction in CO2 emissions per flight North Arrival STAR at Miami (MIA) 182-197 liters of fuel savings and 460-500kg reduction in CO2 emissions per flight 600 CDO night demos at ATL from August – November 2008 Two North Arrival STARs 151-227 liters of fuel savings and 380kg reduction in CO2 emissions per flight Industry Viewpoint - Block 0 16 November 2012

ICAO and its partners are already addressing roll-out of PBN and associated airspace design features such as CDO and CCO. But assistance and full support from all our aviation stakeholders is needed. Beyond Planning… Everybody seems to be on-board with PBN. We have State committed to an Assembly resolution and Industry signed-up to an industry declaration. And although momentum is gaining, implementation remains slow. This is because PBN constitute a paradigm shift in air navigation and requires a complete refocusing and re-education in many domains of the aviation industry. ICAO and its partners are addressing the issues to their best effort but because of its multi-facetted nature, assistance and full support from all our aviation stake holders is needed. Focal points: Change focus of the main players: Governments, Regulators, ANSP’s and Aircraft and Aerodrome Operators through promotion, education and direct implementation. Specific emphasize on regulators. Finalize PBN guidance material from block “-1” to block 0 status including roll-out. Strengthen provisions on the need for Global harmonization Recognition of foreign PBN Ops Approval Same plane, same crew, same procedure Industry Viewpoint - Block 0 16 November 2012

Final remarks Capabilities with in our grasp. Don’t let it slip through your fingers…. PBN is the key stepping stone and affects all corners. In order to create a sound basis for the future of our air navigation system we all need to contribute Starting now. Industry Viewpoint - Block 0 16 November 2012

Industry Viewpoint - Block 0 16 November 2012

Industry Viewpoint – Block 0 Carlos Cirilo IATA ciriloc@iata.org Tel +1 514 8740202 ext. 3620