The impact of qualification reform on applying to HE, and the new UCAS Tariff Firstly, some background for those who may be less familiar with my organization. UCAS, the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service, is an independent charity providing information, advice, and admissions services to inspire and facilitate educational progression. Our services support young people making post-16 i.e. after GCSE choices, as well as those applying for undergraduate and postgraduate courses. I am pleased to be here today in order to explore the impact of this wealth of reform on our core business, or ‘heartland,’ admissions to HE. In addition to providing a brief overview of the implementation of the new UCAS Tariff. Carys Fisher, Policy Executive c.fisher@ucas.ac.uk

Summary Trends in progression to HE Unpacking Qualification Reform: Results of the UCAS survey on A level reform The implications of qualification reform for learners, schools, and universities and colleges The new UCAS Tariff  UCAS’ resources

1. Trends in progression to HE

Record numbers enter HE Highest ever demand for HE Universities made a record 1.9 million offers to applicants A total of 532,300 applicants entered UK HE in 2015, an increase of 3.1%

UK 18 year old population Population increased by 2% (+13,000) from 2014 to 2015 Scotland was the only country where population fell in 2015 In 2016 and through to 2020, population is set to fall by 80,000

UK 18 year old acceptances by qualification group 2008 2015 IB only (0.5%) IB only (0.9%) A level & BTEC (2.2%)

% of those with ≥ 3 predicted grades: Applicants predicted or attaining ABB+ 63% predicted ABB+ in 2015, 9 percentage points higher than 2010 40% achieved ABB+ in 2015, same proportion as 2010 % of those with ≥ 3 predicted grades: Year ≥ 3 predicted grades Predicted ABB Achieved ABB %Predicted %Achieved 2010 163,090 86,780 66,580 53.2% 40.8% 2011 162,865 90,510 67,810 55.6% 41.6% 2012 155,795 91,530 65,910 58.8% 42.3% 2013 155,280 94,430 65,350 60.8% 42.1% 2014 153,830 95,130 63,260 61.8% 41.1% 2015 157,715 98,750 63,490 62.6% 40.3%

2. Unpacking qualification reform

We are here

The UK picture – A levels Northern Ireland: coupled and decoupled. Science practical embedded. England: decoupled. Science practical graded separately. Wales: coupled. Science practical embedded.

UCAS A level survey – January What will you offer? Will you revisit your decision in 2017?

A level survey – September update AS appears to be more prevalent than initially thought: 59% said they would offer the AS in all subjects this rises to 74% when we include those offering the AS in some subjects half of schools felt they had sufficient information clear demand from schools for clarity on university and college response

Scotland: National 4 and 5. Northern Ireland: 9−1 and A*−G. GCSE reform Scotland: National 4 and 5. Northern Ireland: 9−1 and A*−G. England: 9−1. Wales: A*−G.

3. The implications for learners, schools, and universities and colleges

What does this all mean for…? Learners Mixed economy of old and new A levels Heightened need for information and advice New qualifications better for HE and enhance employability Students’ market Teachers and advisers Importance of GCSEs Challenge in predicting grades How HE views the AS EPQ and Core Maths Interviews and admissions tests Universities and colleges Reliability of predicted grades Considerations for entry requirements Importance of the reference and other contextual information Changes to HE programmes

4. The new UCAS Tariff

21/05/2018 In brief… UCAS is introducing a new Tariff for the 2017 admissions cycle. Originated from the 2012 Qualification Information Review (QIR). Addresses many of the shortcomings of the current model. Based on a significantly different methodology to the current Tariff. Key principle is that of minimum disruption Note that the AS has been deliberately repositioned to 40%. The primary purpose of the new Tariff is to provide a broad metric for management information and reporting purposes to the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) for the 2017-18 student record onwards.

New Tariff methodology Tariff points = size band x grade band Size bands – qualifications will be allocated a size band of 1 to 4, based on their guided learning hours or notional learning hours. Grade bands – qualifications will also be allocated a grade band. The new Tariff has 12 grade bands across a value range of 3 to 14. These grade bands spread across the breadth of Level 3 and SCQF Level 6. New Tariff points are determined by multiplying size and grade bands.

Time to bust some myths… More universities and colleges will use the Tariff. Not the case – only one third of courses in our search tool refer to the Tariff, and some universities intend to move to qualification and grade-based entry requirements. There aren’t enough international qualifications on the Tariff. One of the key design principles of the new Tariff is to ensure more international and vocational qualifications can be added. The numbers are hard to recognise and use. The new Tariff calculator will help serve as a quick look-up guide to points. (Source: UCAS adviser survey 2015)

…and some more myths The reformed AS will be treated as 40% by universities and colleges and the unreformed AS will be treated as 50%. No, this is not the case. There is one switchover point for all AS qualifications. All HEPs will change their entry requirements for 2017 because of the new Tariff. Although the Tariff numbers from 2017 will look and feel very different, the qualification requirements which they represent are unlikely to change. (Source: UCAS adviser survey 2015)

5. UCAS’ resources

What is UCAS doing to help? Qualification reform web page including university statements, videos and FAQs: www.ucas.com/qualsreform. Qualification Information Profiles (QIPs) for new A levels and other reformed qualifications. Progression pathways project. Data and analysis exploring qualification trends. Conferences and events. SPA materials. New Tariff implementation resources for learners, schools, and universities and colleges. What else can we do to help you?

Questions? Carys Fisher Policy Executive  01242 544 956  c.fisher@ucas.ac.uk