Small States’ Military Options after the Cold War Dr. Jean-Marc Rickli President of the Geneva University Strategic Studies Group 1st July 2010 University of Iceland
Structure of the presentation Small states’ security dilemma Changes in the strategic environment in Europe Small states’ grand strategy options Small states’ military options Conclusions
1.1 Definition of a small state State that has a deficit of power due to its weak ability to mobilize ressources
1.2 Small states’strategic dilemma Security Autonomy Influence Defensive Cooperative Offensive
1.3 Cold War Alliance Bandwagoning or balancing Deterrence provided by great power Lost of strategic autonomy Entrapment Neutrality Strategic sovereignty Deterrence provided by extensive territorial defence preparations Strategic abandonment
2.1 Changes in the strategic environment in Europe 1) Unipolarity 2) Shift from threats based to risks based environment 3) Institutionalisation of security
2.2 Changes in the strategic environment in Europe 1) Increased incentive for bandwagoning 2) Selectivity in the use of force 3) Standardisation of security
2.3 Obsolescence of defensive strategies Disappearence of the strategic advantage provided by territorial defence preparations Overburden of costs Maintenance of autonomy is counterproductive
Institutionalisation 2.4 Strategic orientations according to the nature of strategic challenges Autonomy Influence Threats Linked to territorial security Neutrality Alliances Risks Linked to functional security Counterproductive Institutionalisation
2.5 Post-Cold security paradox for small states Formal strategic options Strategic room of manoeuvre Cold War Post-Cold War
3.1 Small states’ grand strategic goal Carve out a niche strategy
3.2 Small states’ grand strategic goal + - ZOPA - + + - ZOPA - +
3.3 Small states’ grand strategic options Technical expertise Honest broker Norms setter Institutional engineering
4.1 Change of strategic paradigm Cold War Contemporary environment National security strategy Collective or autonomous defence Prevention/Protection Doctrines Strategic level Dissuasion/ Deterrence Stabilisation/Coercion Operational level Territorial Defence Projection Niche Theatre of operations National territory Out of area / National territory Strategic Culture Reactive Pro-active
4.2 Small states’ defence options Homeland Defence Low strategic ambitions High strategic ambitions Strategic level Prevention/ Protection Stabilisation/ Reconstruction Coercion/ Enforcement Operational level Territorial protection Subsidiary assistance Police missions Intelligence Niche: Logistic Transport Medical units Communication CIMIC Spe Ops Counter-terrorism Framework nation Armed forces structure Conscription and professional Division of labour bw conscripts and prof Interoperability Professional Modularity Network centric
4.3 Small states’ defence options Homeland Defence Low strategic ambitions High strategic ambitions Strategic level Prevention/ Protection Stabilisation/ Reconstruction Coercion/ Enforcement Operational level Territorial protection Subsidiary assistance Police missions Intelligence Niche: Logistic Transport Medical units Communication CIMIC Spe Ops Counter-terrorism Framework nation Armed forces structure Conscription and professional Division of labour bw conscripts and prof Interoperability Professional Modularity Network centric
4.4 Small states’ defence options Homeland Defence Low strategic ambitions High strategic ambitions Strategic level Prevention/ Protection Stabilisation/ Reconstruction Coercion/ Enforcement Operational level Territorial protection Subsidiary assistance Police missions Intelligence Niche: Logistic Transport Medical units Communication CIMIC Spe Ops Counter-terrorism Framework nation Armed forces structure Conscription and professional Division of labour bw conscripts and prof Interoperability Professional Modularity Network centric
4.5 Small states’ defence options Homeland Defence Low strategic ambitions High strategic ambitions Strategic level Prevention/ Protection Stabilisation/ Reconstruction Coercion/ Enforcement Operational level Territorial protection Subsidiary assistance Police missions Intelligence Niche: Logistic Transport Medical units Communication CIMIC Spe Ops Counter-terrorism Framework nation Armed forces structure Conscription and professional Division of labour bw conscripts and prof Interoperability Professional Modularity Network centric
4.6 Niche strategies Advantages Risks Political Strategic Operational Strategic influence Co-decision power International pressures Strategic ●Extended protection Casualties Public opinion Operational Know-how Reduction of mission creep risks Intensive use of capabilities
4.7 Framework nation strategy Advantages Risks Political Strategic responsibility Decision power International pressures/ responsibilities Strategic ●Extended protection ●Autonomy Casualties Public opinion reactions Operational Extended know-how Reduction of mission creep risks Intensive use of capabilities Exclusive use of ressources
5. Conclusions Paradox for small states’ security options Cooperative security policy Niche strategy
President of the Geneva University Strategic Studies Group Questions? Jean-Marc Rickli President of the Geneva University Strategic Studies Group jean-marc.rickli@politics.ox.ac.uk
Exercise Use the typology provided by De Wijk (2004) to classify the strategic ambition of your country and determine its armed forces’ profile
Typology of armed forces profile Political ambitions Required forces Countries Low profile low risks (5th tier) No capabilities for expeditionary warfare, limited capabilities for stability operations Low profile, medium risks (4th tier) Niche capabilities for expeditionary warfare Medium profile medium risks (3rd tier) Focused toolbox for defensive expeditionary operations and (combat) support Medium profile, high risks (2nd tier) Focused toolbox for offensive expeditionary operations High profile, high risks (1st tier) Broad toolbox for expeditionary warfare Global responsibilities Full spectrum expeditionary capabilities