AMAZALERT: Raising the alert about critical feedbacks between climate and long-term land-use change in the Amazon Coordinator: Bart Kruijt Co-coordinator:

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Presentation transcript:

AMAZALERT: Raising the alert about critical feedbacks between climate and long-term land-use change in the Amazon Coordinator: Bart Kruijt Co-coordinator: Carlo Nobre

Motivation Amazonia consists not only of forests but also of its waters, society and economy, and these are embedded in, and respond to wider natural and socio-economic systems. Respond to predictions of climate-change induced alterations in the Amazon Basin’s vegetation, pointing to forest die-back and increased savannahs. WE NEED TO TEST THESE IMPORTANT HYPOTHESES Need for an early warning system to enable society to take action before critical ecosystem services are lost. Vegetation changes in the Amazon will be determined not only by changes in global temperature and precipitation but also through feedbacks from Amazon land-cover patterns. Policies, socio-economic forces and fires play vital roles in the evolution of these land cover patterns.

Partners 1. ALTERRA (Coordinator) Netherlands 2. INPE Brazil 3. MetOffice United Kingdom 4. CNRS/IPSL France 5. VU 6. EMBRAPA 7. UGENT Belgium 8. JR Austria 9. UEDIN 10. FAN Bolivia 11. PIK Germany 12 UNIVLEEDS 13. USP 14. UNAL Colombia

Objectives Identify the ecosystem services most important to stakeholders in the Amazon Basin and beyond. Significantly improve modelling and understanding of the complex, dynamics of natural and anthropogenic contributors to potential loss of ecosystem services, including climate, land-use change and their feedbacks. Integrate policy and socio-economic factors into land use models and use the results to inform decision making. Respond to the urgent need, expressed by the international community, to develop a tool to warn for imminent, irreversible loss of ecosystem services.

Budget distribution: total 4.7 Meuro ( 3.5 fromEU)

Field work Ecological: Socio-economical LBA infratructure: Focussed ecophysiological responses (T, moisture nutrients..) Caxiuana Esecaflor, possibly Cuieras K34-B34 and Humaitá Socio-economical stakeholders: mainly institutional, government, science Field interviews? Probably only few. LBA infratructure: Esecaflor Transport to esecaflor, other filed sites Exisiting tower and plot data; running met. and flux data

S. American roles INPE EMBRAPA USP FAN UNAL Early warning system INLAND – MBSCG coupling (fire, LUC, physiology..) Develop LUC models Regional scale Hydrology: impacts on dams and hidrovias EMBRAPA CNPM Campinas: policy analysis, stakeholders Oriental Belem: ecophysiology experiments and modelling, in collaboration with MPEG USP Coordinate data mining and model-data interface FAN Bolivian policies and stakeholders; regional model UNAL Basin-wide hydrological response

timing 3 year project Start 1 September 2011 3-5 October kick-off (INPE) First half: Identify priorities; policy analysis analyse AR5 model runs benchmark and develop models New data collection Second half: Implement new coupled runs Feedbacks from climate and society Design early warning system

Please join in! Embedding in LBA effort is natural LBA/SSC advice Related projects (e.g. EU FP7-ROBIN) Concentrate efforts (field sites, models) Help out/advise (economists..) Stakeholders Please have a look at leaflet and feed back!