Wallington 24th February 2017 Angus Collingwood-Cameron

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Presentation transcript:

Wallington 24th February 2017 Angus Collingwood-Cameron BREXIT THOUGHTS Wallington 24th February 2017 Angus Collingwood-Cameron

Northern Farmers & Landowners Group Established 2012 Covers c250,000 acres Entirely North East focused Work with MPs, MEPs, Gov Agencies & local authorities Monthly newsletter Access to advice & info

The Known Knowns Article 50 will be signed at the end of March The UK will leave the EU 31st March 2019 (or later!) BPS payments will continue “until 2020” Pillar 2 schemes will run their course

UK AGRICULTURE POLICY POST 2019!!! The Known UNKNOWN UK AGRICULTURE POLICY POST 2019!!!

“I will fight your corner at every opportunity”

DEFRA Clued up Or Clueless?

DEFRA No Capacity No Skills No Knowledge CONCLUSION:=

UK Agriculture Policy post 2019: Less of the Same!

Post 2019? “BPS” tapers to zero How long will the taper period be? Agri-environment to continue and improve Other methods of environment payments? Other measures in time?

Bonfire of Red Tape?

Known Unknown: Trade post Brexit No Single Market & Customs Union WTO Rules? Tariffs: Average 22.3% for agricultural products 59% beef, 40% lamb and wheat Imports?

Actions to Consider Road test your business with no “BPS” Complete any legal agreements & structural changes asap while there is some certainty Avoid long term agreements, unless income related Maintain flexibility Expansion opportunities? Chin up – worse things happen at sea!

Meanwhile, over in Europe…. CAP 2020 -2017 Debate just starting: Maintain the current rules Full liberalisation, removing CAP support and encouraging globally integrated food markets Rural development and Risk Management tools Simplify area based payments Small holders, environmentally friendly farming & local food

Meanwhile, over in Europe…. Free Trade!! 20 FTAs in negotiation, with Canada already agreed New Zealand in negotiation – why?

Meanwhile, over in Europe…. Enemies to the East of them…. Enemies to the West of them…….. Enemies within…… …….and then there is Greece!

Meanwhile, over in Europe…. “The Euro could collapse in the next 12 to 18 months” “I personally am not certain that there will be a European Union with which to have free trade negotiations with.” Prof Ted Malloch

CONCLUSION Don’t Panic!!! There will be opportunities as well as risk Adaptability and flexibility will be key