11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy Relationship between State Precursor Policy and Methamphetamine Small Toxic Lab (STL) Seizures YM Terry-McElrath,a DC McBride,b JF Chriqui,c,d J O’Connor,d K Mattson,e CJ VanderWaalb aUniversity of Michigan, bAndrews University, cUniversity of Illinois at Chicago, dThe MayaTech Corporation, eEl Paso Intelligence Center NIJ 2005IJCX0028 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy Where We Were…. Meth STLs related to significant social costs States developed a variety of policies to hopefully reduce STL meth production Key informants indicated some of the introduced policies were believed to be effective Anecdotal and single-state analyses had indicated policy success No multi-state analysis had attempted to examine the issue 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy …and Where We Went Obtained incident-level STL seizure data from all states from 2004-2006 Coded and applied state precursor policy to seizure data Examined results from both within- and between-state models for evidence of changes in STL seizures related to precursor policy 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

Methods: STL Seizure Data Incident-level seizure data obtained from Clandestine Laboratory Seizure System (CLSS) CLSS is voluntary reporting system US clandestine lab seizures by local, state and Federal law enforcement agencies Seizures from 2004-2006 for all states 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

Methods: STL Seizure Data, cont. Work with EPIC to ensure only states with highest reporting accuracy included Removal of super labs Removal of non-methamphetamine-related STLs Final seizure sample: 32 states 39,923 STL seizure incidents 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy Methods: Combining State Pseudoephedrine Policy Data and STL Seizure Data State precursor policy obtained for all states as of October 1, 2005 (O’Conner et al.) Merged with seizure incident-level data Based on policy effective date, all seizures coded as occurring prior to or on/after the effective date Seizures aggregated into bi-monthly counts per state Each case coded “1” if > 50% of seizures occurred on or after each policy-specific effective date Resulting N: 2,010 Mean cases per state: 62.8; Range: 24-72 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy Constructs Outcome: bi-monthly count of seizures per state (used natural log in models) Federal policy predictors from the “Combat Methamphetamine Epidemic Act” (dichotomous any/none) Purchase quantity limits (effective 4/8/2006) Clerk intervention (effective 9/30/2006) 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy Constructs, cont. State pseudoephedrine policy predictors Clerk intervention and quantity/packaging restrictions 0=Neither clerk intervention nor quantity/packaging restrictions 1=Quantity/packaging restrictions only 2=Clerk intervention restrictions only 3=Both Buyer purchase offense severity 0=Non-crime 1=Crime (misdemeanor or felony) Specification of sales regulatory/enforcement agency 0=None specified 1=Agency specified 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy Analyses Within-state models To explore pre- and post-policy changes in STL seizure rates Limited to states that experienced policy change Between-state models To explore differences in STL seizure rates between states based on policy environment differences Included all states Analyses clustered by state, including state and year dummies 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy Methamphetamine-related lab seizures (range=1-213) 19.86 State policies 1. Clerk intervention and quantity/packaging restrictions Neither 56.1% Quantity/packaging restrictions only 12.6% Clerk intervention restrictions only 4.0% Both 27.3% 2. Purchase severity defined as crime 22.6% 3. Specification of regulatory/enforcement agency 31.0% Federal policies 1. Purchase quantity limits 21.1% 2. Clerk intervention 7.1% Year 2004 35.8% 2005 33.6% 2006 30.7% 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

Total Methamphetamine-Related Seizures in 32 Retained States, Figure 1 Total Methamphetamine-Related Seizures in 32 Retained States, 2004-2006 a b 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy Figure 2 Total Methamphetamine-Related Seizures in Retained States with: (a) No Precursor Laws (b) Precursor Laws becoming Effective between 2004-2006 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy Within-State Models: Changes in Federal Policy in States with No State Policy Mean Seizures 1. Purchase quantity limits Prior to policy 9.0 After policy 5.6*** 2. Clerk intervention 8.5 5.1 Model Ns N of states (7) N of cases (411) 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy Within-State Models: Changes in Clerk Intervention and Quantity/Packaging Restrictions Policy Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Mean Seizures Neither 14.5 21.1 38.4 Quantity/packaging only 7.4** -- Clerk only 6.2* Both 21.6*** Model Ns N of states (4) (2) (13) N of cases (237) (130) (812) 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

Within-State Models: Changes in Buyer Penalty Severity Policy Mean Seizures Initial non-crime severity 29.1 Moving to crime (misdemeanor or felony) 17.5** Model Ns N of states (8) N of cases (497) 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

Within-State Models: Changes in Regulatory/Enforcement Agency Policy Mean Seizures Initially no specification 25.7 After specification 12.5*** Model Ns N of states (11) N of cases (664) 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy Between-State STL Seizure Differences by Pseudoephedrine Precursor Policies   Est p Clerk intervention and quantity/packaging restrictions Neither (ref) Quantity/packaging only -0.4493 ** Clerk only -0.3564 Both -0.5410 Purchase severity Crime (misdemeanor or felony) 0.1947 Specification of regulatory/enforcement agency Yes -0.3250 Federal policies 1. After purchase quantity limit policy -0.4836 *** 2. After clerk intervention policy -0.3227 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy Summary Current paper analyzed direct seizure cases across multiple states, with results providing independent verification of such prior testimony and official reports Policies that do, indeed, appear to relate to rapid and significant declines in the production of methamphetamine in STLs Both state and Federal policy matter, with Federal policy providing a national baseline to increase the effectiveness of state policy efforts 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy

11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy Conclusions Federal and state approach that includes designated regulatory agencies that can enforce precursor laws focusing on quantity controls and clerk intervention are crucial policy elements in efforts to reduce the harms associated with STL manufacturing of methamphetamine 11/5/2007 APHA 2007 Meth STL Seizures and Precursor Policy