10 year investment plan ERGEG approach and contribution Benoît Esnault ERGEG - Gas Network and Market Task Force GTE+ workshop Brussels, 21/01/2009

Context 3rd package Security of supply as a key issue 2008 EC Strategic Energy Review Dispute between Russia and Ukraine Need for improving market integration and solidarity mechanisms GTE+ work on 10 year development statement investment development plan Basement of ERGEG work ERGEG approach: defining a formal drafting process and more emphasis on EU gas dynamics and long term energy strategy

ERGEG involvement, background 3rd Legislative Package: promotion of investment is a key requirement Coordinated long-term planning of system development Publication of network development plans by TSOs EU 10 year investment plans prepared by ENTSOG Role of the ACER The ACER will be clearly involved in the process. The ACER will be required to provide an opinion or to approve the plan (discussions between the European Parliament and the Council) ERGEG work on 10 year investment plans Framework guidelines based on GTE+ work and 3rd package requirements (not finalized yet ) Focus on the content and drafting methodology

Inputs and scope Factors driving investment planning Scope Gas demand and supply evolution Security of supply Creation and development of new entry and exit points Competition development and gas integration Scope Investments involving at least 2 MS or impacting adjacent systems Take storage, LNG and CCGT projects into account Challenge: diversity of investment practices in Member States Reliance on market mechanisms Vs planning Role of incentives

ERGEG approach to drafting the guidelines Objectives of 10 year investment plan Develop a shared vision of the future  transparency Diagnosis on obstacles to gas transit across Europe  focus on cross border issues Address priority developments and TSO projects  visibility Anticipation on future gas deficits and emergency procedures  security of supply Status of the EU-10 YIP Built on scenarios on supply, demand and infrastructure development Simulations of problems using an model of the integrated network Periodic revisions: every 2 years Monitoring report including justification of deviations between achieved and foreseen investments Binding issues at a national level

Methodology : Top down & bottom up Top down: developing a European perspective EU energy dynamics and strategy Map of gas flows and international bottlenecks Risks of disruption (diagnosis + scenarios) Integration of national markets and European priorities Bottom-up: from national to European pictures (GTE+ work) Summary of national investment plans Collection on national data on supply & demand Identification of investment gaps and technical and economic feasibility of necessary investment projects Synthesis by ENTSOG Coherence between national, regional and EU plans required Consultation of the market fundamental for consistency

Way forward Active cooperation between ERGEG and GTE+ ERGEG framework guidelines, adoption process Under discussion within ERGEG Public consultation foreseen by March 2009 Objective: finalisation in May 2009 Future consultation procedures Implement information collection procedures: obligation for stakeholders to provide the requested information to ENTSOG Consult on 10 year investment plan’s consistency