Portfolio Investment Survey An International Co-ordinated Database

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Presentation transcript:

Portfolio Investment Survey An International Co-ordinated Database Javier Santiso Chief Development Economist & Deputy Director OECD Development Centre Banco de España & IMF Madrid  1 & 2 March 2006

1 CIPS: An essential tool for the future 2 CIPS+: A strategic tool for debt restructuring 3 CIPS+: A strategic tool for emerging markets

CIPS: An essential tool … providing improved coverage by addressing asymmetric issues in reported balance of payments data … … and especially in portfolio investment flows undertaken on an annual basis since 2001 with 63 of the participating economies.

… that in 2000 would have been very useful for monitoring portfolio flows In 2000 no systematic databases of portfolio investments were available One year spent with a research team of 3 economists to collect microeconomic data 300 interviews conducted with asset managers, buy- side and sell-side strategists Source: Palgrave, 2003.

The political economy of emerging markets: actors, institutions and crises

The political economy of emerging markets: actors, institutions and crises

The political economy of emerging markets: actors, institutions and crises Source: Javier Santiso, The political economy of emerging markets: actors, institutions and financial crises in Latin America, New York, Palgrave, 2003.

Since 2000 new databases have been developed with higher update frequency Sources: EPFR, Bloomberg, and Santander Investment. http://www.emergingportfolio.com/

1 CIPS: An essential tool for the future 2 CIPS+: A strategic tool for debt restructuring 3 CIPS+: A strategic tool for emerging markets

Back to the Argentine Debt Default: CIPS+ as a strategic tool? 10 20 30 40 1999 2000 2001 Source: Nieto and Santiso (2006) Argentina Brazil Mexico Venezuela Latin American Countries: Number of Sovereign Bonds Issued before the Argentinean Crisis The Argentine giant debt default has been epic in scale. It involved 152 varieties of paper denominated in six currencies and governed by eight jurisdictions.

Back to the Argentine Debt Default: CIPS+ as a strategic tool? Argentina defaulted on bonds worth $81 billion in December 2001. It represented the longest period of debt restructuring : no database of Argentine bondholders is available (Lazard was hired for a year for this purpose).

1 CIPS: An essential tool for the future 2 CIPS+: A strategic tool for debt restructuring 3 CIPS+: A strategic tool for emerging markets

The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks’ Recommendations and Emerging Markets Argentina (1997-2005): - 67% of underwriters’ recommendations were “neutral” or “overweight”. - 100% of underwriters’ recommendations were the same or more favorable than the others’ recommendations (25% more favorable). Source: Sebastián Nieto and Javier Santiso, “The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks Recommendations and Emerging Markets”, forthcoming, Working Paper, 2006.

The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks’ Recommendations and Emerging Markets Brazil: - 100% of underwriters’ recommendations were “neutral” or “overweight” (57% were “overweight”). - 70% of underwriters’ recommendations were the same or more favorable than the others’ recommendations (35% more favorable). Source: Sebastián Nieto and Javier Santiso, “The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks Recommendations and Emerging Markets”, forthcoming, Working Paper, 2006.

The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks’ Recommendations and Emerging Markets Mexico: - 85% of underwriters’ recommendations were “neutral” or “overweight” (30% were “overweight”). - 70% of underwriters’ recommendations were the same or more favorable than the others’ recommendations (40% more favorable). Source: Sebastián Nieto and Javier Santiso, “The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks Recommendations and Emerging Markets”, forthcoming, Working Paper, 2006.

Thank you for your attention!

Annex 1 The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks’ Recommendations and Emerging Markets Chile Source: Sebastián Nieto and Javier Santiso, “The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks Recommendations and Emerging Markets”, forthcoming, Working Paper, 2006.

Annex 2 The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks’ Recommendations and Emerging Markets Colombia Source: Sebastián Nieto and Javier Santiso, “The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks Recommendations and Emerging Markets”, forthcoming, Working Paper, 2006.

Annex 3 The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks’ Recommendations and Emerging Markets Venezuela Source: Sebastián Nieto and Javier Santiso, “The Usual Suspects: Investment Banks Recommendations and Emerging Markets”, forthcoming, Working Paper, 2006.