Assessment of Climate Change Impacts Sea Level Rise in Bangladesh and the Netherlands Paula Aschenbrenner and Magdalena Tordy (NASA 2015)

Content Definition of objective Introduction and general description of the problem Methodology and background information Application to case study Discussion and Conclusion Summary

Definition of Objective Assessing climate change impacts, especially concerning future sea level rises in Bangladesh (South Asia) and the Netherlands (Atlantic region) Objective: establish a link between the statement of the IPCC and current and possible future situations in these countries Look at economic condition and historic development

Introduction ... Climate Change is a global issue with various impacts and consequences Changing sea level; expressed differently in various regions (latitude, climatic condition) Major challenge: inequitiy in economic condition Paris Agreement in 2015 Rio Declaration on Environment and Development in 1992

... and Description 5th IPCC report state: Global mean sea level rise is likely Atlantic region one of most affected ones South Asia: high degree of cumulative climate- related risk, e.g. flood risk Historic differences in sea level rise protection Netherlands started 500 B.C Bangladesh has hardly any protection Different perception of „heavy flood“

Methodology Desktop research Drivers of sea level rise due to climate change Past changes in sea level Future changes in sea level depending on different scenarios Impacts on sea level rise in the Netherlands and Bangladesh Ability to adapt to climate change

Methodology cont. Drivers of global sea level rise due to anthropogenic climate change Warmer ocean water expands Melting ice land is adding water to oceans Regional ocean currents (lead to unequal rise of sea level)

Methodology cont. Impacts of sea level rise increased flood risk and submergence salinisation of surface and ground waters morphological change, such as erosion and wetland loss loss of soil and land resources damage to coastal infrastructure sub-optimal functioning of the sewerage systems Spreading of diseases

Methodology cont. Four RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 Four emission scenarios: CO2 emitted from 2000 on 1,280GtC 2,560GtC 3,840GtC 5,120GtC

Methodology cont. Percentage of the population-weighted area for each nation or megacity below the projected long-term local mean sea level from emitting 1,280 GtC.

Case study: The Netherlands and Bangladesh

Case study: The Netherlands and Bangladesh, cont Sea level rise is long term impact of climate change Scenarios predict a sea level rise of up to 1m up to 2100 compared to 1990 Flooded area in case of sea level rise of 1m

Case study: The Netherlands and Bangladesh, cont 25% now already below sea level First dykes built 500 B.C. If no measures are build risk of floods, ground water salinisation and erosion Technical and financial capacities are available to install future protection measures Bangladesh High populated coastal areas in case of 1m sea level rise 10% of the total land area of the country will be lost, 13 million people without home Hardly any protection like dykes lack of financial and technical capacities

Discussion and Conclusion Climate Change impacts are very diverse and have high influence on humans and ecosystems Global mean sea level rise is likely until 2100: High risk for Bangladesh and the Netherlands Will be seen even hundreds of years later Consider socio-economic capacities -> influence risk The Netherlands have higher capacities to adapt Over 1/3 of Bangladeshis suffer from malnourishment -> further reduction of agricultural land International agreements and cooperation needed for climate justice and support

Summary Assessment of Climate Change Impacts Future sea level rise in Atlantic Europe and South Asia Possible consequences for affected population State of the art consensus of future CC impacts (diff. RCPs and CO2 emission scenarios) Case study: Sea level rise in Bangladesh and the Netherlands Analysation of future impacts and challenges for populations Sea level rise has high impact in both countries, even far beyond 21st century Difficult to make exact predicitions – depends on capacities to adapt

The End Thank you for your attention!