Making Sense of Numbers Using education indicators in media reporting South-East Asia Media Training on Education for All 18-20 April 2007, Hanoi, Viet Nam

Using education indicators in reporting Statistics are like bikinis.  What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.  ~ Aaron Levenstein Importance of understanding what the data is about. What the indicator means.

Basic Education Indicators Access Indicator 1 Gross Enrolment Ratio in Pre-Primary / Preschool (ECCE) Programmes 2 % of new Grade 1 intakes with Pre-school (ECCE) experience 3 Gross Intake Rate (AIR) 4 Net Intake Rate (NIR) 5 Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) by Level (primary, lower sec., upper sec.) 6 Net Enrolment Ratio (GER) by Level (primary, lower sec., upper sec.) 7 % of Girl Enrolment by Level (preschool, primary, l.sec., usec.) 8 Public Expenditure on Education as a % of GDP 9 Public Exp. on Education as a % of Total Government Exp. 10 Public Recurrent Expenditure on Education as a % of Total Government Recurrent Expenditure 11 Unit Cost (public recurrent expenditure per pupil) by Level

Basic Education Indicators 12 Teachers with Required Academic Qualification by Level 13 Pupil-Teacher Ratio by Level 14 Pupil-Class Ratio by Level 15 Promotion Rate by Grade 16 Repetition Rate by Grade 17 Dropout Rate by Grade 18 Transition Rate from Primary to Lower Secondary Level 19 Literacy Rate of 15-45 Year Old 20 Adult Literacy Rate (Aged 15+) And more…

What is an indicator? An indicator: indicates a state or level acts as a gauge or meter for a specified purpose Like the car dashboard, navigational indicators of speed, fuel, distance traveled, etc. shows current situation, progress made so far and the remaining distance towards achieving the desired target Benchmark indicators are like a ‘road sign,’ shows whether you are on the right road how far you have traveled, and how far you still have to go in order to reach your destination (or attain your objectives) Don’t get overwhelmed by the numbers. An Indicator is simply a measure…

Why do we need to set indicators? Indicators are set to: serve as benchmarks act as a “measuring rod” in comparing different population groups, localities, levels, sex, etc. get a systematic and appropriate analyses help define relevant objectives and outputs Indicators are a basis for measuring progress or towards a goal or objective

Are we moving closer to the goals? Forward? Backward? Indicators Are we moving closer to the goals? Forward? Backward? Goal Need an Indicator to know how far you are from the goal Photo© UNESCO/KC.Tung

Education Indicators Ministry of Education annual statistical reports, the EFA Global Monitoring Report, the Human Development Report, etc. all use mostly the same core education indicators to measure progress in education systems

Indicators of Coverage & Participation Coverage and participation are measured by comparing the number of children enrolled in school with the total school-age population Enrolment ratios are used to measure the extent of coverage of an education programme (e.g. Primary) Types of enrolment ratios: gross and net enrolment ratios by level, sex, region etc. These indicators are used for assessing how far a country has succeeded in providing Education for All.

Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) Total Enrolment in Primary Level GERprimary= -------------------------------------------------------- X 100 Total Population of official age-group for Primary

GER interpretation A high GER indicates adequate capacity in the education system A GER approaching or surpassing 100% indicates that a country is, in principle, able to accommodate all children in the official age-group In some countries, many children older than the official school admission age enroll in Grade 1 leading to a GER of over 100% The Net Enrolment Ratio (NER) is a more precise measure of access in an educational level

Net Enrolment Ratio (NER) Definition: Enrolment in primary education of the official primary school age group expressed as a percentage of the corresponding population. Enrolment of the official primary school age NER = --------------------------------------------------------- x 100 Population of official primary school age Purpose: NER measures the proportion of the targeted age-bracket population who are enrolled in primary education, eg, .

NER vs. GER By analyzing GER and NER together, one can see the participation pattern of the system: Over and under age pupils Degree of participation Geographical disparity Gender disparity Theoretically, NER should not be more than 100 while GER can be more than 100 NER and GER can be calculated for: ECCE, primary level (also by grade), secondary

Enrolment by Age and Levels of Education School-Age Total Pop DK/MD None Pre-Primary Primary Lower Secondary Upper Secondary Post Secondary 3-5 Pre-Primary 425 287 31 35 72 6-10 Primary 796 20 60 39 663 14 11-13 Lower Secondary 524 25 49 1 214 224 11 14-15 Upper Secondary 328 17 45 21 161 84 16+ Post Secondary 4096 365 3221 3 79 227 201 6+ All age groups 6169 714 3406 75 973 478 322 Enrolment by Age and Levels of Education

Enrolment per Age Group School-Age Total Pop Total Enrolled % Enrolled per Age Group Out of School % Out of School 3-5 Pre-Primary 425 107 25% 318 75% 6-10 Primary 796 716 90% 80 10% 11-13 Lower Secondary 524 450 86% 74 14% 14-15 Upper Secondary 328 266 81% 62 19% 16+ Post Secondary 4096 510 12% 3586 88% 6+ All age groups 6169 2049 33% 4120 67%

Enrolment per Age Group School-Age Total Pop Total Enrolled % Enrolled per Age Group Out of School % Out of School 3-5 Pre-Primary 425 107 25% 318 75% 6-10 Primary 796 716 90% 80 10% 11-13 Lower Secondary 524 450 86% 74 14% 14-15 Upper Secondary 328 266 81% 62 19% 16+ Post Secondary 4096 510 12% 3586 88% 6+ All age groups 6169 2049 33% 4120 67%

Enrolment per Education Level School-Age Total Pop DK/MD None Pre-Primary Primary Lower Secondary Upper Secondary Post Secondary 3-5 Pre-Primary 425 287 31 35 72 6-10 Primary 796 20 60 39 663 14 11-13 Lower Secondary 524 25 49 1 214 224 11 14-15 Upper Secondary 328 17 45 21 161 84 16+ Post Secondary 4096 365 3221 3 79 227 201 6+ All age groups 6169 714 3406 75 973 478 322 Enrolment per Ed Level, including DK&MD   Net Enrolment Ratio (NER) 8% 83% 43% 26% 5% Gross Enrolment Ratio GER 18% 122% 91% 98% 3% Enrolment per Ed Level, excluding DK&MD 25% 85% 45% 27% 54% 125% 96% 104% Enrolment per Education Level

Enrolment per Education Level School-Age Total Pop DK/MD None Pre-Primary Primary Lower Secondary Upper Secondary Post Secondary 3-5 Pre-Primary 425 287 31 35 72 6-10 Primary 796 20 60 39 663 14 11-13 Lower Secondary 524 25 49 1 214 224 11 14-15 Upper Secondary 328 17 45 21 161 84 16+ Post Secondary 4096 365 3221 3 79 227 201 6+ All age groups 6169 714 3406 75 973 478 322 Enrolment per Ed Level, including DK&MD   Net Enrolment Ratio (NER) 8% 83% 43% 26% 5% Gross Enrolment Ratio GER 18% 122% 91% 98% 3% Enrolment per Ed Level, excluding DK&MD 25% 85% 45% 27% 54% 125% 96% 104% Enrolment per Education Level

Gender Parity Index (GPI) Gender Parity Index (GPI) is most widely used index in assessing gender differences GPI is calculated as the ratio of the selected indicator’s value for girls divided by that for boys GPI = Value of indicator for Girls (Female) Value of indicator for Boys (Male) A value of less than one indicates the difference in favor of boys, whereas a value close to one indicates that parity has been achieved Gender parity is sometimes considered to have been attained when the GPI lies between 0.97 and 1.03* *Global monitoring report 2003/4

Early childhood education Absolute enrolment figures for East Asia declined in 2004 from 1999 But the average GER for East Asia remains stable at 40%

Early childhood education Gross Enrolment Ratios (GER) in pre-primary education show countries like Lao and Cambodia have very minimal access with GER of 8.5% and 9.4% Refer to page 21 of the 2007 GMR

GER pre-primary ECCE in Asia

- Poverty limits access Early childhood education 20 40 60 80 Niger D. R. Congo U. R. Tanzania Lao PDR Tajikistan Uganda Rwanda Senegal Egypt Bolivia Myanmar Azerbaijan Madagascar Sierra Leone Philippines Cameroon Kenya Nicaragua Mongolia Haiti Lesotho India Venezuela Viet Nam Colombia Trinidad/Tobago Attendance rates (%) - Poverty limits access Higher attendance for children from richer households Lower attendance among poor who would benefit most Attendance rates for three and four year olds. Poverty Large gaps in access between richest and poorest households Lack of mother’s secondary education Place of residence Rural enrolment 10 to 30 percentage points lower than urban Lack of centre close to home Lack of birth certificate, often reflecting marginalization Disadvantaged and vulnerable children stand to benefit most from early childhood programmes Poorer households Richer households

Early childhood care & education Other indicators: Infant mortality rate; Under-5 Mortality Rate Percentage of children under 5 suffering from: underweight, wasting, stunting Exercise: Refer to page 238 of the 2007 GMR and check your country’s data. How would you interpret the data? What kind of story can you write based on the data?

Primary education Primary school participation on the rise but fell slightly in East Asia 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sub-Saharan Africa Arab States South/West Asia Central/Eastern Europe Central Asia East Asia Pacific Latin America Caribbean N. America West. Europe Net enrolment ratios in primary education (%) 1999 2004 Almost all countries with ratios below 85% in 1999 improved their situation. Slight decrease in this region

77 million children still not in school Half in sub- Saharan Africa One-third in India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Ethiopia Drop of 20 million since 1999, mainly in South Asia The 77 million figure includes children who are not enrolled in either primary or secondary school. Previous measures cited in the report looked at out of primary school only. Four countries are home to the largest numbers of out of school children India, Nigeria, Pakistan and Ethiopia are the four countries (22.8 million OOS) Important to note large reduction in India between 2002 and 2004

Net Non-Enrolled Ratio (NNER) in Primary Education (%) East Asia, 2004 NOTE the limitations of this interpretation; Doesn’t capture the over- and under-aged children

Common complaints on enrolment ratios The ratios calculated at the national level conceal disparities that exist between urban and rural provinces and between boys and girls Disaggregate enrolment ratios by Urban/Rural and Sex District level enrolment ratios indicate better than the regional level aggregate ratios The ratios don’t tell us about the extent of repetition and dropout rates and survival to any of the grades Use also efficiency indicators These ratios do not tell anything about how much the pupils actually learn in schools Not intended to be used as an indicator of learning An alternative measure is the ENROLMENT RATE – per age group

Intake Rates Intake rate indicates accessibility as the proportion of children, out of all children of admission age, who are coming to school for the first time. Two indicators are used in this regard, Apparent intake rate Net intake rate What is the difference? In what way is the difference important to planners and decision makers? Implications on out of school children

Net Intake Rate (NIR) What are the percentages of boys and girls who are in age 6 but did not enter school? 11% for boys and 20 % girls

Key performance indicators Promotion rate: is the proportion of pupils who have successfully completed a grade and proceeded to the next grade the following year. Repetition rate: the proportion of pupils who repeat a grade once or twice. The repetition rate of grade g, year y is obtained by dividing repeaters of grade g, year y+1, by enrolment in grade g, year y. Drop-out rate: the proportion of pupils who leave the system without completing a given grade in a given school year. Percentage of repeaters: Percentage of repeaters at a particular grade.

Key performance indicators Interpretation High rates of repetition reveal problems of internal efficiency (wastage of resources) and possibly reflect a poor level of instruction; When compared across grades, the patterns can indicate specific grades with relatively higher repetition rates, hence requiring more in-depth study of the causes and possible remedies; Repetition rates could be zero due to an automatic promotion system In some cases, low rates merely reflect policies or practices of automatic promotion;

Progress towards gender parity About two-thirds of countries out of 181 with data have achieved gender parity in primary education

Exercise: Check page 254 of the 2007 EFA GMR. Look at the indicators on access to primary education for your country. How would you interpret these indicators? What stories can you write base on these indicators? Consider as well the gender differences for the indicators

Literacy remains elusive One in five adults – 781 million – lack basic literacy skills The vast majority live in South and West Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia Cambodia: 2.262 mil 73% F Lao PDR: .970 mil 64% F Myanmar: 3.201 mil 70% F Thailand: 3.354 mil 66% F Viet Nam: 4.909 mil 69% F The increase since 2004 (771 million) due to previously unavailable data for Afghanistan and changes in population estimates One in five adults One in four adult women

Measuring quality Pupil-Teacher Ratio Pupil-Class Ratio Percentage of Trained Teachers

Pupil Teacher Ratio (PTR) Total number of pupils in a given level PTR = ----------------------------------------------------- Total number of teachers at the level This ratio also gives a rough indication of the quality of the teaching/learning process

Pupil Class Ratio (PCR) The average number of pupils per class is an important indicator which gives a rough indication of class size It is used to assess the efficiency of resource utilization It is also used, indirectly, to assess the teaching/learning process This ratio is defined as the number of pupils to the number of class rooms * A group of pupils in one instructional class. Hence, a section is equal to a class. One classroom can be used for a number of sections.

Percentage of trained teachers Definition: The number of school teachers with at least the minimum academic qualifications required by the public authorities for teaching in primary education, expressed as a percentage of the total number of primary school teachers. Purpose: Indicates magnitude of quality teaching force in education. The formula is as follows: (e.g. Primary level) Total number of primary teachers with at least the minimum academic qualifications = -------------------------------------------------------------- x 100 Total number of primary teachers at that level

Percentage of trained teachers Interpretation A high percentage denotes the availability of academically qualified teachers and the general quality of the teaching force Teachers' academic qualifications, together with pre-service or in-service teacher training, correlate strongly and consistently with pupils’ scholastic performance Other factors would be - the experience and status of teachers, teaching methods, teaching materials and the quality of classroom conditions.

The EFA Development Index Out of 125 countries, 47 have achieved the most common and measurable EFA targets. Countries showing the greatest progress typically those farthest from the goals Excludes many countries far from goals; e.g., those in conflict Far from EFA (EDI below 0.80) Intermediate position (EDI between 0.80 and 0.94) EFA achieved or close 0.95 and 1.00) 50 28 2 18 1 3 6 11 4 8 19 47 15 17 Bangladesh, Cambodia, Nepal, Lao PDR Sub-Saharan Africa Arab States Central Asia East Asia/Pacific South and West Asia N. America /West. Europe Latin America/Caribbean Central/Eastern Europe The EFA Development Index (EDI), introduced in the 2003/4 Report, provides a summary measure of a country’s situation vis-à-vis four EFA goals: universal primary education (UPE), adult literacy, gender and quality of education. The data are insufficiently standardized to include early childhood care and education (goal 1) and the learning needs of youth and adults (goal 3). Each of the four goals is represented by a proxy indicator.[1] The EDI is a simple average of the four indicators; it varies between 0 and 1, with 1 representing EFA achievement. [1] UPE: total primary net enrolment ratio; adult literacy: literacy rate for persons aged 15 and over; gender parity and equality: the gender-specific EFA index; quality of education: survival rate to grade 5. Pages 64 and 65 of full report 125 countries with data for all four indicators – this explains why other countries missing Indonesia, Iran, Macao, Malaysia, Viet Nam, Philippines, Myanmar Total Korea, China

EFA Development Index (EDI) Four components of the EDI: Total primary NER Adult literacy rate GEI (Gender-specific EFA Index) GPI in primary education GPI in secondary education GPI for adult literacy Survival Rate to Grade 5 Exercise: Refer to page 200 of the GMR and check your country’s ranking based on the EDI

Where are the sources of data? In addition to the Ministry of Education statistics data can also be found from population and housing censuses, household surveys, labour force surveys, household income and expenditure surveys, etc. Annual reports from international organizations such as UNICEF’s State of the Children Report, Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey (MICS) ILO’s annual child labour report, UIS’ Out-of-School children Report, www.uis.org country MDG reports UNDP’s Human Development Report World Bank’s World Development Report

Where are the sources of data? Human Development Report 2006 The Human Development Index (HDI) measures the average achievements in a country in three basic dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life, knowledge and a decent standard of living. Includes EDUCATION INDEX Tools for calculating the indices Major sources of data used in the HDR

Where are the sources of data? WEBSITES and DATABASES: UNESCO Institute for Statistics http://www.uis.unesco.org/ UNESCO http://www.unesco.org/ AIMS Unit website with links to international statistical databases http://www.unescobkk.org/index.php?id=129