FY13 Budget and Caseload Update Fiscal Committee October 1, 2012

FY13 Caseload Overview Income Eligible: The Income Eligible account full year forecast is projecting a surplus of $10.7M which is approximately $3.4M less than last month’s projected surplus of $14.1M. The reduction in surplus is driven by late billing. Late Billing for July 2012 vouchers is $270K which has an annualized impact of $3.2M. After two months of actual reports we have adjusted the forecast. The forecast includes the Infant/Toddler Rate increase for providers who are self-assessed at QRIS level 2 or above(approximately 37%). The financial impact is projected to be $1.1M. The forecast includes growth for the number of providers reaching QRIS Level 2 or above in subsequent months. In June and July 126 children enrolled in Summer-Only Programs. The forecast includes Summer-Only care for 779 children for June 2012. After reducing the current surplus by the forecasted DTA deficit ($3.5M), the surplus is approximately $7.2M. DTA-Related Caseload: Forecasted deficit changed from $3.1M to $3.5M; the bulk of the increase is due to August actual expenditures billed at $300k higher than forecasted. The variance is driven by the fact that actual average cost per child to date is greater than 3 year average used for cost projection. Caseload growth aligns with the 3 year historical trend used in the forecast. Supportive: The projected deficit of $475K last month decreased to a deficit of $54k. Contract slots continue to remain open impacting the change in forecast. Ongoing discussions with DCF indicate an effort to fill open slots.

FY13 Caseload Overview Summary As of August 2012

FY 2012 Income Eligible (3000-4060)

FY 2013 DTA Related (3000-4050)

FY 2012 Supportive (3000-3050)

FY2013 Income Eligible Total Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures (Amount in Thousands) Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures Gray : FY13 Appropriation (Vouchers, Contracts & Grants) Purple: FY13 Maintenance (Spending Plan Projection) ) Total Appropriation of $231.9M includes $9,019,276 for Grants and $600K Reserve for Late Billing August 2012 Voucher Expenditures paid is $7,761,627 Actual/Forecast includes projected cost for Infant Toddler Rate Increase

FY2013 DTA Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures (Amount in Thousands) Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures Gray : FY13 Maintenance (Spending Plan Projection) Purple: FY13 Spending Plan

FY2013 Supportive Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures (Amount in Thousands) Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures Gray : : FY13 Appropriation Purple: FY13 Maintenance (Spending Plan Projection)

FY12/13 Contract Slots - Regular and Flex Total Awarded Slots is 14490 and Allowable Flex Slots is 857 28 Providers representing 31 contracts are Over 5% Flex (309) **No. of children filling slots may be greater than slots awarded.

Caseload Waitlist Since 8/2011 *Waitlist Data as of August 2011 is reported from KinderWait ** Excludes Unborn children, Children 13 or older, “0” zip codes and towns out of state.