FY13 Budget and Caseload Update Fiscal Committee December 3, 2012

FY13 Caseload Overview Income Eligible: The Income Eligible account full year forecast is projecting a surplus of $11.8M which is approximately $200K more than last month’s projected surplus of $11.6M. The increase in surplus is driven by adjusted Infant/Toddler rate increase projections decreasing from $1.1M to $900K resulting from actual billing data. The forecast includes growth for the number of providers reaching QRIS Level 2 or above in subsequent months. The forecast includes Summer Only care for 779 children for June 2013. After reducing the current surplus by the forecasted DTA deficit ($6.7M), and adding the anticipated DCF surplus, the overall surplus in the caseload accounts is approximately $7.0M. DTA-Related Caseload: The forecasted deficit has increased to $6.7M, an increase of $3.2M. The change is driven by a significant increase in caseload (approximately 700). October caseload forecast projected a 7% decrease from September to October for School Age children and a 2% increase for Toddlers. Actuals reported reflect a 1% decrease for School Age, a 6% swing, and 5% increase for Toddlers, a 2% variance. Infant and Preschool caseload percentage change was flat to forecast. The impact has been forecasted for the remaining 8 months of the fiscal year. Supportive: The projected surplus of $600K increased to a surplus of $1.9M. Contract slots continue to remain open impacting the change in forecast. Ongoing discussions with DCF indicate an effort to fill open slots.

FY13 Caseload Overview Summary As of October 2012

FY13 Caseload Overview Summary

FY13 Caseload Overview Summary

FY 2013 Income Eligible (3000-4060)

FY 2013 DTA Related (3000-4050)

FY 2013 Supportive (3000-3050)

FY2013 Income Eligible Total Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures (Amount in Thousands) Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures Gray : FY13 Appropriation (Vouchers, Contracts & Grants) Total Appropriation of $231.9M includes $9,019,276 for Grants and $600K Reserve for Late Billing October 2012 Voucher Expenditures paid is $7,000,540 Actual/Forecast includes projected cost for Infant Toddler Rate Increase

FY2013 DTA Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures (Amount in Thousands) Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures Gray : FY13 Appropriation

FY2013 Supportive Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures (Amount in Thousands) Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures Gray : : FY13 Appropriation

FY12/13 IE Contract Slots - Regular and Flex Total Awarded Slots is 14490 and Allowable Flex Slots is 857 28 Providers representing 31 contracts are Over 5% Flex (309) **No. of children filling slots may be greater than slots awarded.

Caseload Waitlist Since 9/2011 * Waitlist Data as of September 2011 is reported from KinderWait ** Excludes Unborn children, Children 13 or older, “0” zip codes and towns out of state.