Analysis of Motorcycle Crashes: Comparison of 2012 to Previous Years Carol A. Flannagan, Ph.D. Center for the Management of Information for Safe and Sustainable Transportation (CMISST) Biosciences Group, UMTRI

Motorcycle Crashes The motorcycle helmet law was modified as of April 13, 2012 What was the picture of motorcycle crashes in 2012 and how did they change (or not) compared to previous years? FatalInjury(K) SuspectedSerious Injury (A) SuspectedMinor Injury (B) PossibleInjury(C) NoApparentInjury (O)

Annual Numbers Annual motorcycle crashes: Year Total Crashes 2008 3969 2009 3338 2010 3285 2011 3104 2012 3510 FatalInjury(K) SuspectedSerious Injury (A) SuspectedMinor Injury (B) PossibleInjury(C) NoApparentInjury (O)

Annual Numbers Occupants of motorcycles in crashes: Year Total People 2008 4493 2009 3812 2010 3741 2011 3509 2012 3948 FatalInjury(K) SuspectedSerious Injury (A) SuspectedMinor Injury (B) PossibleInjury(C) NoApparentInjury (O)

Who is involved in motorcycle crashes? 2008-2011 FatalInjury(K) SuspectedSerious Injury (A) SuspectedMinor Injury (B) PossibleInjury(C) NoApparentInjury (O)

Who is involved in motorcycle crashes? 2012 FatalInjury(K) SuspectedSerious Injury (A) SuspectedMinor Injury (B) PossibleInjury(C) NoApparentInjury (O)

Helmet Use Rate in Crashes What About Helmet Use? Time Period Year(s) Helmet Use Rate in Crashes Jan 1-Apr 12 2008-2011 97% 2012 96% Apr 13-Dec 31 98% 74% FatalInjury(K) SuspectedSerious Injury (A) SuspectedMinor Injury (B) PossibleInjury(C) NoApparentInjury (O) *74% is probably an underestimate of the true helmet use rate on the road

Fatalities and Injuries Apr 13-Dec 31 Year(s) Helmet Use Fatalities (per year) Serious Injuries (per year) Percent Fatal Percent Serious Injury 2011 Yes 97 574 3.2% 19% No 6 23 7.2% 31% 2012 56 390 2.3% 16% 55 194 6.5% 23% FatalInjury(K) SuspectedSerious Injury (A) SuspectedMinor Injury (B) PossibleInjury(C) NoApparentInjury (O)

Fatalities and Injuries Apr 13-Dec 31 Overall fatality rate in 2011 = 3.3% Overall fatality rate for 2012 = 3.4% Fatality rate was 2.8 times higher for those who didn’t wear helmets in 2012 compared to those who did FatalInjury(K) SuspectedSerious Injury (A) SuspectedMinor Injury (B) PossibleInjury(C) NoApparentInjury (O)

Who Wears Helmets? Role Year(s) Helmet Rate Driver 2008-11 98% 2012 74% Passenger 97% 75% FatalInjury(K) SuspectedSerious Injury (A) SuspectedMinor Injury (B) PossibleInjury(C) NoApparentInjury (O)

Who Wears Helmets? Gender Year(s) Helmet Rate Male 2008-11 98% 2012 73% Female 97% 78% FatalInjury(K) SuspectedSerious Injury (A) SuspectedMinor Injury (B) PossibleInjury(C) NoApparentInjury (O)

Who Wears Helmets? Driver Drinking Year(s) Helmet Use Rate Driver Not Drinking 2008-11 98% 2012 76% 90% 54% FatalInjury(K) SuspectedSerious Injury (A) SuspectedMinor Injury (B) PossibleInjury(C) NoApparentInjury (O)

Percent Riders with Drinking Driver Who Wears Helmets? Category Year(s) Percent Riders with Drinking Driver Helmet 2008-11 7.1% 2012 5.2% No Helmet 30% 13% FatalInjury(K) SuspectedSerious Injury (A) SuspectedMinor Injury (B) PossibleInjury(C) NoApparentInjury (O)

How Does Fatality Risk Change with Alcohol and Helmet Use? Alcohol Use Year Percent Killed Helmet Worn Driver Drinking 2011 12.3% 2012 11.1% Driver Not Drinking 2.6% 1.8% No Helmet Worn 13.0% 14.7% 4.3% 5.3% FatalInjury(K) SuspectedSerious Injury (A) SuspectedMinor Injury (B) PossibleInjury(C) NoApparentInjury (O)

Separating the Effect of Alcohol from the Effect of the Helmet How do we figure out what the helmet does separate from risk-taking factors like alcohol use? Regression models allow us to predict risk of fatality or injury account for alcohol, speed, age, and other factors FatalInjury(K) SuspectedSerious Injury (A) SuspectedMinor Injury (B) PossibleInjury(C) NoApparentInjury (O)

Bottom Line… Taking risk-taking factors into account, we find: Alcohol more than quadruples the risk of death and nearly triples the risk of serious injury After accounting for other risk factors, not wearing a helmet doubles the risk of fatality and increases the risk of serious injury by 60% FatalInjury(K) SuspectedSerious Injury (A) SuspectedMinor Injury (B) PossibleInjury(C) NoApparentInjury (O)

Bottom Line… If we apply the models to 2012 data and predict what would have happened if all riders had worn helmets, we would expect: 26 fewer deaths (21% reduction) 49 fewer serious injuries (8% reduction)

Thanks for your attention. University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI)