Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS)

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Presentation transcript:

Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) Assessment, research and development Bill Merryfield Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) with contributions from colleagues at CCCma and CMC Operations at GPC Montreal: talk by Bertrand Denis WGSIP-16/ET-OPSLS, 10 March 2014

Marine Environmental Observation Prediction Topics discussed Evaluation of land surface initial conditions + skill - soil moisture - snow Current ENSO outlook Annual forecasts (12-month means) Experimental regional downscaling CanSIPS Explorer Research supported by Marine Environmental Observation Prediction and Response Network

Evidence CanSIPS soil moisture initialization is somewhat realistic 21 Jan 2014 1 Feb 2014 Probabilistic soil moisture forecast Feb 2014 lead 0 9 Feb 2014 Evidence CanSIPS soil moisture initialization is somewhat realistic 28 Feb 2014 25 Feb 2014

CanSIPS soil moisture forecasts & skill JJA 2011 (lead 0)  3-category probabilistic forecast (left) ERA-interim verification (right)  Anomaly correlation* JJA (lead 0) Soil moisture (left)  2m temperature (right)  SM T2m *ERA-interim verification

Evidence CanSIPS snow initialization is somewhat realistic Example: BERMS Old Jack Pine Site (Saskatchewan, Canada) CanCM3 assimilation runs CanCM4 assimilation runs 2002-2003 1997-2007 climatology vs in situ obs

CanSIPS snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts & skill Verification JFM 2011 (lead 0)  3-category probabilistic forecast (left) MERRA verification (right)  Anomaly correlation JFM (lead 0)  SWE (left) 2m temperature (right)  Higher than for T2m in snowy regions! SWE T2m

Seasonal Nino3.4 anomaly correlation Current ENSO outlook Seasonal SST anomalies MAM 2014 Seasonal Nino3.4 anomalies JJA 2014 SON 2014 Seasonal Nino3.4 anomaly correlation DJF 2014-15

Annual T2m forecasts CanSIPS Probabilistic forecast Verification (1981-2010 percentile) + ACC 2011 forecast pdf climatological pdf 2012 Global mean forecast vs climatological PDF 2013 2014 ACC skill

Experimental downscaling of CanSIPS forecasts CanRCM4 = Canadian Regional Climate Model version 4 CORDEX North America grid – 0.22 ~ 25 km resolution RCM runs will be initialized from downscaled assimilation runs Atmospheric scales > T21 spectrally nudged in interior domain Global model output files = RCM input  global, downscaled forecasts run concurrently Soil moisture probabilistic forecast on CanSIPS global grid Surface temperature on CanRCM4 0.22 CORDEX North America grid

CanSIPS Explorer Developed and maintained at CCCma by Slava Kharin Displays all monthly, seasonal hind/forecasts + verifications 1979-present + skills Calibrated probabilistic forecasts (maps & local PDFs) for many variables, regions, indices http://www.cccma.ec.gc.ca/cgi-bin/data/seasonal_forecast/sf2 Monthly to 12 mon “ “ sf2_daily username: cccmasf password: seasforum Daily N-day, monthly & seasonal forecasts