Future Directions

Future Studies Groups Futurist Future criminology One who studies the future The task of the futurist is to effectively distinguish among impending possibilities and make realistic forecasts Future criminology The study of likely futures as they impinge on crime and its control continued on next slide

Future Studies Groups World Future Society Society of Police Futurists International (PFI) Futures Working Group (PFI/FBI joint venture) Foresight program (in the UK) Future Crimes Institute

Techniques of Futures Research a multidisciplinary branch of operations research whose principal aim is to facilitate long-range planning based on Forecasting from the past supported by mathematical models Cross-disciplinary treatment of its subject matter continued on next slide

Techniques of Futures Research a multidisciplinary branch of operations research whose principal aim is to facilitate long-range planning based on Systematic use of expert judgment A systems-analytical approach to its problems

Principles of the Futurist Perspective The future is determined by a combination of factors, including human choice There are alternative futures We operate within an interdependent, interrelated system continued on next slide

Principles of the Futurist Perspective Tomorrow’s problems are developing today We should regularly develop possible responses to potential changes

Techniques of Futures Research Trend extrapolation Cross-impact analysis The Delphi Method Simulations and models Environmental scanning Scenario writing Strategic assessment

Future Crimes By 2025, socially significant crime in the advanced nations will be increasingly economic and computer based The heads of 21st century criminal organizations will be educated, highly sophisticated, and computer literate continued on next slide

Future Crimes Identity manipulation will be a nexus of future criminality Criminal organizations will have their own satellites to coordinate drug trafficking and money laundering operations continued on next slide

Future Crimes Georgette Bennett predicts areas of coming change Decline in street crime Increase in white-collar and high-tech crime Increase in crimes by women and the elderly continued on next slide

Future Crimes Georgette Bennett predicts areas of coming change Shift in high crime rates from Frost Belt to Sun Belt Safer cities, more crime in small towns and rural areas

New Criminologies L. Edward Wells predicts that future explanations of crime will be: More eclectic More comparative Predominantly individualist and voluntaristic More applied and pragmatic continued on next slide

New Criminologies L. Edward Wells predicts that future explanations of crime will be: More oriented toward explaining white-collar crime More emphasis placed on biological factors Risk factor prevention paradigm (Farrington)

Crime-Control Policies of the Future Key issues of concern: New criminal groups Language barriers Distrust by ethnic communities Greater reliance on community involvement Regulating the marketplace Reducing public demand Increased treatment

Can We Solve the Problem of Crime? Criminology should be considered a metascience, superior to the criminal law rather than an auxiliary to it Criminologists today expect to work with politicians and policy makers in forging crime-control agendas based on scientific knowledge and criminological theorizing continued on next slide

Can We Solve the Problem of Crime? Implementation of effective policies may be difficult Cultural taboos Interest groups with diverse agendas Racial divisiveness Groups that see crime as an accepted way of doing business and do not consider criminal activity stigmatizing