WeatherDiscussion0512

Major Weather Related Threat

Seattle Pollen 05/12/14

Temps Have Been Warm

And Dry

500 hPa Anomaly

Obligatory ENSO Discussion

Niño Region SST Departures (oC) Recent Evolution The latest weekly SST departures are: Niño 4 0.8ºC Niño 3.4 0.5ºC Niño 3 0.6ºC Niño 1+2 1.2ºC

Weekly Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Average Temperature Anomalies Subsurface temperature anomalies increased during June, August, and in October 2013. Toward the end of January 2014, temperature anomalies strongly increased. Recently, the positive anomalies have decreased, but remain elevated.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial Pacific Recently, positive subsurface anomalies are widespread across most of the Pacific basin, but have weakened in recent weeks. Most recent pentad analysis During March-April, the downwelling phase of a strong oceanic Kelvin wave resulted in an eastward shift of above-average temperatures (right hand panels). The recent weakening of the positive temperature departures represents the effects of the upwelling phase of the Kelvin wave.

Predictability

CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook Updated: 8 May 2014 The chances of El Niño increase during the remainder of 2014, exceeding 65% by summer (JJA).

February Forecast Was Less Confident

IRI/CPC Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Model Outlook Most models predict ENSO-neutral (-0.5ºC to +0.5ºC) to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (AMJ). After that, models predict either ENSO-neutral or El Niño (greater or equal to +0.5ºC) during the rest of 2014. Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 16 April 2014).

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast (PDF corrected) Issued: 12 May 2014 The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts El Niño starting within the next 1-3 months.

What Happened to the CA Drought?

Paradise

Bicycle Lake

1430 UTC May 11

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZ5yPrhLmi4