Continuation of Adricosm forecasting activities

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Presentation transcript:

Continuation of Adricosm forecasting activities P. Oddo1, A. Coluccelli1, N. Pinardi2, M. Zavatarelli2 1-Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (Gruppo Nazionale di Oceanografia Operativa) 2-Università di Bologna Progetto Requisite 12-13 Dicembre 2005 (Ancona) Italian Ministry for the Environment and Territory INGV UNIBO

The AREG operational forecasting system Simulation Forecast Model AREG (POM based code) Horizontal / Vertical resolutions 5Km / 21 σ Start Time 1-Jan-1999 April 2003 End time www.bo.ingv.it/adricosm Initial condition Climatological implementation of AREG Snap-shot of AREG simulation Rivers run-off Daily Po data Constant Po run-off Climatological monthly mean, Raicich (others rivers) Atmospheric forcing ECMWF(6 hr. 0.5°) analysis ECMWF(6 hr. 0.5°) forecast Precipitations Climatological monthly mean (Legates Willmott 1990) Boundary conditions OGCM (MFSTEP) analysis OGCM (MFSTEP) forecast

The AREG operational forecasting system Data Assimilation of coastal CTD and open ocean XBT EOF have been computed for several Adriatic regions EOF have been calculated from model results and for the following seasons: Winter (January-April) Spring (May-June) Summer (July-October) Autumn (November-December) In regions 2,3,4,7 EOFs (T,S) from POM simulation In regions 5,6 EOF(T,S) from MFS

The AREG operational forecasting system Data Assimilation of coastal CTD and open ocean XBT

New high resolution model (under development) Same Code : POM Different grid hor.: 5 to 2.2 km Different grid vert.: 21 to 41 sigma Different river run-off: reduced Croatian and Istrian Different advection scheme: Smol. to old POM scheme Different initial condition: Clim. POM to interannual OPA Different boundary condition: MFS PP(MOM) to STEP(OPA)

New high resolution model (under development) New model Op. model Obs. Sat. Sea Surface Temperature 20 September 2003

New high resolution model (under development) New Mod. Ope. Mod.

Weekly forecast to Requisite bulletins

Weekly forecast to Requisite bulletins

Conclusions and Future work AREG forecasting activities have been implemented successfully and development continues (Operational from April 2003). Long term nesting of large shelf models seems to work without re-start and without model drift. The model results show a strong inter-annual variability, confirmed also by observed data. Data assimilation implemented for coastal CTD and open ocean XBTs The AREG 2.2km 41 sigma layers has been implemented. A preliminary comparison between model results has been carried out Sensitivity experiments on vertical resolution Improve the resolution of surface forcing (atmospheric and rivers run-off). Support the activities for a high resolution coastal models.