GENESYS Redevelopment Strawman Proposal March 17th, 2016

What are the Questions? What is the probability that the region will have to take an emergency action to keep the lights on in 5 years? Do we have enough resources? Are they sufficiently flexible? What actions or decisions impact the probability that the region will have to take emergency actions?

What are the Challenges? Long-term and Short-term Load Forecast Error Water Run-off Forecasts Error Demand Response Energy Storage Potential Coordinated Hydro Capacity Thermal Operating Reserves Dynamic Hydro Reserves Automated Markets

Power System Planning What is an adequate system? What is an economic solution? Are these confounded?

Proposal – Coordinated Resource Dispatch Value of stored water – price of changing hydro operations Extra-regional market impacts on regional dispatched resources Variable generation and must-run impacts on regional dispatched resources

Proposal – Multi-stage Unit Commitment Complete integration of an hourly water-based hydro dispatch and variable generation forecasts with thermal market-based unit commitment

Proposal – Multi-stage Unit Commitment Monthly Expected Operation Weekly Forecast / Initial Unit Commitment Day-Ahead Forecast / Unit Commitment Hour-Ahead Forecast / Dispatch Schedule After the Hour True-up on Fuel and Reserve Deployment

Basic Production Cost Model Monthly Expected Operation Weekly Forecast / Initial Unit Commitment Day-Ahead Forecast / Unit Commitment Hour-Ahead Forecast / Dispatch Schedule After the Hour True-up on Fuel and Reserve Deployment

Advanced Production Cost Model Monthly Expected Operation Weekly Forecast / Initial Unit Commitment Day-Ahead Forecast / Unit Commitment Hour-Ahead Forecast / Dispatch Schedule After the Hour True-up on Fuel and Reserve Deployment

Proposal – Hydro Supply Forecast Error Operate consistent with forecast hydro rather than observed hydro Capture impacts of water run-off uncertainty in volume and timing

Proposal – Hourly Hydro Dispatch by Project Improve hydro capacity contribution estimates by including hourly water routing logic

Proposal – Integrated Storage into Dispatch Include storage into dispatch model with decisions on when to store, generate or take no action

Proposal – Simulated Load and Renewable Forecast Error Simulate operations based on forecast and correct for error in subsequent commitment stages

Proposal – Incorporate Reserve Requirements Simulate allocation and deployment of reserves on resources including hydro, thermal, demand response, etc.

Proposal – Direct Conservation Input Integrate uncertainty of conservation achievement into long-term load forecast and error estimation