Professor Allan J. Brimicombe Population Modelling in the London Thames Gateway - a new approach for small area geographies Professor Allan J. Brimicombe BA(Hons) M.Phil. Ph.D. C.Geog. FRGS FGS Centre for Geo-Information Studies University of East London, UK a.j.brimicombe@uel.ac.uk http://www.uel.ac.uk/geo-information

Lower Super Output Areas Project EASY The study area Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA) London Thames Gateway

Project EASY ONS small area population estimates Mid-year estimates at Local Authority and LSOA For LSOA estimates, data sets used are: NHS patient register Child benefit Older persons dataset Special populations: Prisoners UK armed forces Foreign armed forces and dependents Constrained to Local Authority MYE The first three data sets are used to calculate change ratios for quinary are groups and gender which are then applied to the previous year’s estimate. Key assumption is that the relationship between these data sets and the true population remains the same for all years at small area geographies.

Project EASY GLA 2007 round demographic projections Mid-year estimates at Local Authority and Ward Change analysis 2001-2006 based on ONS MYE Future fertility rates and gender/age-specific survival rates based on ONS 2006 MYE Main determinant of population distribution is the 2004 London Housing Capacity Study and DCLG 2004-based household projections Inputs are: Base population Fertility Mortality/survival 2001-02 migration matrix 2001 migration flow age structures 2002-03, 2005-06, 2006-07 gross inflows and net flows Development data 2004 household representative rates

Social Infrastructure Planning Project EASY Population estimates and projections now future -1 -2 -3 ONS Borough Ward LSOA UEL models GLA 2001 Census Locally accessible data sets Up-to-the-moment estimates Small geographical areas (LSOA) Can be carried out locally by analysts Good quality data Social Infrastructure Planning Local Authorities & PCTs Community Infrastructure Levy £

Project EASY Modelling total Council Tax properties (2001 census)

Count of properties by Council Tax bands Multiple Home Occupancy Project EASY Key variables LSOA LA_NAME LA WARD X Y Hect E01000006 Barking and Dagenham 00AB 00ABFX 544994 184363 14.653 E01000007 544179 184455 20.009 E01000008 543654 184401 19.506 E01000009 544587 184437 12.796 E01000010 544244 184018 35.207 E01000011 544427 184734 9.164 E01000012 543907 184714 13.905 E01000013 00ABFY 548956 184943 20.783 E01000014 548510 184922 34.123 E01000015 549586 185102 28.063 E01000016 549117 185496 19.878 E01000017 548925 185479 15.837 E01000018 549372 185259 17.399 E01000019 00ABFZ 547102 186478 18.387 E01000020 547400 186240 18.724 E01000021 546830 186034 16.936 Count of properties by Council Tax bands Multiple Home Occupancy Child Benefit Schools Census (PLASC)

Project EASY Structure of the models Total Estimated Population Population in Households without Dependent Children Population in Families with Dependent Children Households without Dependent Children Families with Dependent Children School Census Separate model for each Borough Occupied Households Child Benefit Records Dwelling Counts by Council Tax Band Houses with Multiple Occupancy

can be estimated at LSOA....even up-to-the-moment. Project EASY Variables by Borough Once built, the relationships are assumed to broadly remain between censuses and by plugging in the variables for each subsequent year, the population can be estimated at LSOA....even up-to-the-moment. So, what are the results.......

Project EASY Comparing at 2001 This is the difference between our population estimation and ONS MYE for 2001 by LSOA. The figures are close. (With Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test), there is no significant different in 95% Confident level.

Project EASY Comparing at 2005

Project EASY Waltham Forest

Project EASY Havering

Project EASY Redbridge

Project EASY Greenwich

Project EASY Hackney

Project EASY Change 2001-2006

Social Infrastructure Planning Project EASY Next steps 2001 Census now future -1 -2 -3 EASY EASY LSOA (age structure) Social Infrastructure Planning Local Authorities & PCTs Community Infrastructure Levy £ Tools