Agrobiodiversity and climate change: a new role for science COVER SLIDE To change the picture: Right click on the photo Click on change picture If you need a specific CRP logo, replace the general CGIAR logo at the upper right. Agrobiodiversity and climate change: a new role for science Jacob van Etten November 2016

Climate change

Climate change Origin of agriculture

Drought Drought tolerance

Drought Drought tolerance Heat Heat tolerance

Climate Change: Challenge to Science Climate change Real-time, one shot Science Trial and error

Climate Change: Challenge to Science Climate change Real-time, one shot Multiple views, values, interpretations, uncertainty Science Trial and error Optimizing well-defined solutions

Climate Change: Challenge to Science Climate change Real-time, one shot Multiple views, values, interpretations, uncertainty Multiple dimensions, trade- offs Science Trial and error Optimizing well-defined solutions Ceteris paribus, isolate problem as strategy

Climate Change: Challenge to Science Climate change Real-time, one shot Multiple views, interpretations, uncertainty Multiple dimensions, trade- offs Science Trial and error Optimizing well-defined solutions Ceteris paribus, isolate problem as strategy Diversity

Aspects of a Solution Design solutions with science in supporting role – inject science into real-time workflows Work with diversity rather than averages and trends – “science of the individual”

Example 1

Working with Household Diversity

Household Diversity

Trade-off analysis Farm performance scores for large and small farm types (LF and SF), practising high and low farm intensification (HI and LI), crop diversification (HD and LD) and market orientation (HM and LM) for Lushoto, Tanzania. Abbreviations: FA is Food Availability, HFIAS is the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale, HDDS is the Household Diet Diversity Score, PPI is Progress out of Poverty Index.

RHoMIS Easy to use and interpret – facilitate discussion Benchmarking and comparisons possible Multiple indicators: trade-offs (adaptation vs. mitigation, etc.) Monitoring tool for NGOs, banks, state agencies, etc.

Example 2

Implementation

Citizen Science “Citizen science is scientific research conducted, in whole or in part, by amateur or nonprofessional scientists.” “(also known as crowd science, crowdsourced science, civic science or networked science)” Wikipedia

Crowdsourcing “Crowdsourcing is the process of obtaining needed services, ideas, or content by soliciting contributions from a large group of people, and especially from an online community, rather than from traditional employees or suppliers.” Wikipedia

Triadic Comparisons of Technologies (tricot) B C 12 Experimentation is done individually Each farmer receives a different combination of three varieties

Communication Material

Digital Platform

Accuracy of Farmer Observations Tests in Honduras with 35 farmers (Steinke et al. under review)

Example of Results Nicaragua bean trials (Van Etten et al., Experimental Agriculture)

Farmer Citizen Science for Adaptation Injection of varietal diversity boosts adaptation directly through seed availability and better-adapted varieties Diversity in growing environments in a single year (planting dates, soils, rainfall) can be exploited with big data to make predictions Farmers themselves compare across sites and learn from directly observed spatial patterns

In Summary… Data-intensive approaches address the climate challenge from a diversity perspective Massive digital participation accelerates human learning for climate action What is the motivation of participants and those who are supposed to take up science results?

More Information RHoMIS.net Surveys on household diversity ClimMob.net Farmer citizen science

Jacob van Etten j.vanetten@cgiar.org @jacobvanetten THANK YOU/FINAL SLIDE