Samir Mili, CSIC, Madrid Boubaker Karray, IO, Tunisia EU-Med Agpol Annual Meeting Euro-Med Trade Liberalization Impacts on European Olive Oil Paris, 15-16 March 2007 Samir Mili, CSIC, Madrid Boubaker Karray, IO, Tunisia

We have : Delphi Tunisia estimates EU expert assessments CAPRI model estimates EU expert assessments

3 Importing Regimes Preferential tariffs and quotas regime Inward processing regime (No quantitative impact on EU domestic supply) Normal (MFN) regime

Olive Oil Tariff Quotas Granted to Third Countries Code NC Quota (tons) Date of Application Lebanon   150910 1000 March 2003 15100010 Palestine 2000 January 2005 Tunisia 15091010 57167 May 2004 15091090 Algeria 1509 October 2005  1510  1000 Morocco 3500 September 2005 151000 Turkey* In progress Syria Jordan From 1er January to 31 December 2006 4500 From 1er January to 31 December 2007 7000 From 1er January to 31 December 2008 9500 From1er January to 31 December 2009 12000 From1er January to 31 December 2010 *Current regulation: tariff reduction on olive oil imports from this country

World Olive Oil Market Aggregate Figures 1990–2006 Av./ campaign (1000 t) CV (%) Min Max % Δ Av. 98/99-05/06 // Av. 90/91- 97/98 Av. annual % growth (2) Production 2319.7 EU 80% 22 EU 20 1453.0 3162.0 37 EU 40 6.0 EU 6.4 Consumption 2287.9 EU 70% 17 1666.5 2923.5 34 4.1 Exports (1) 432.2 EU 60% 24 256.5 625.0 41 4.5 Imports (1) 437.1 EU 35% 21 288.5 634.0 Only extra-EU-15 Average compound rate

Market Share Concentration in the EU Olive Oil Industry (%) Ci Spain Italy C2 C4 C10 28 37 42 25 31 38

Olive oil Virgin olive pomace Structure of Olive Oil Production and Marketing Chain Milling and storage Marketing at origin/storage Refining Marketing/Export Olive oil Bottling/Canning Virgin olive pomace Extraction of olive pomace Mills facilities Co-operative mills Refining facilities-bottling plants Co-operative MilIs Bottling/canning plants Large trading enterprises at origin Extraction Mills-Extraction facilities Refining facilities- bottling plants Extraction and refining facilities

CAPRI Results Olive Oil (1) 'Imports Baseline Bilateral Partial Liberalization Bilateral Full Liberalization Bilateral Partial + G20 1000 t' 22.6 22.28 46.29 26.85 0.00% 0.05% 107.91% 20.58%

CAPRI Results Olive Oil (2) Imports from mediterannians Baseline Bilateral Partial Liberalization Bilateral Full Liberalization Bilateral Partial + G20 'Turkey' 2.93 28.89 11.34 0.00% -0.03% 887.07% 287.28% ‘Other Med. countries' 6.79 6.81 5.29 3.91 0.26% -22.07% -42.42%

DELPHI Results Tunisia (1) OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION POTENTIAL 2001-05 2010 2015 Olive oil production 142 190 250 Increasing plantations yields through the application of good agricultural practices 1 An integrated olive growing strategy strongly based on scientific arguments, clear objectives, and mobilizing adequate human and material means 2 Extending areas of irrigated oil olives 3 Reinforcing financial availabilities for the benefit of the sector, and granting direct aid to producers 4 Restructuring old plantations through uprooting and replanting, while increasing densities 5 Extending areas of oil olives in dry conditions while increasing densities 6 Promoting hyper-intensive plantations 7 Encouraging the selection of Tunisian varieties in intensive plantations 8

DELPHI Tunisia Scenarios Scenario 1: PARTIAL LIBERALIZATION 1. Quota 86000 tons 2. Inward-processing MAINTAINED 3. Normal (MFN) regime Reduction Extra virgin 1245 Euros/t – 20% Lamp 1226 Euros/t – 20% Refined 1346 Euros/t – 20% 1 + 2 + 3 Scenario 2: FULL LIBERALIZATION

DELPHI Results Tunisia (2) OLIVE OIL EXPORT POTENTIAL (1000 t) 01-05 2010 2015 Scenario 1: PARTIAL LIBERALIZATION 83.5 186 224 1.Quota With increasing J, F and M quantities Without increasing J, F and M quantities n.a 85 83 84 2.Inward-processing If suspended 46.8 100 50 130 65 3.MFN tariff: normal regime 12 18 Scenario 2: FULL LIBERALIZATION 153 206