Mauritius Population and Demographic Profile Mr D Pothegadoo Statistician 28.11.2016 1

Structure of presentation Give a snapshot of the current demographic situation in Mauritius Population dynamics Demographic trends(factors of population change ) International Comparison Future prospects 2 2

Current Demographic Situation 3

Estimated population of the Republic of Mauritius1 as at 1st July 2016 Male 625,380 Female 638,367 Both Sexes 1,263,747 Sex Ratio 98.0 4

5

Definitions Crude Birth Rate: the no of births in a year per 1,000 midyear population. Crude Death Rate: the no of deaths in a year per 1,000 midyear population. Infant Mortality Rate: the no of infant deaths in a year per 1,000 live births during the year. Total Fertility Rate: the average number of children born to a woman assuming that she survives to the end of child-bearing age. Indicators of mortality CDR 7.7 IMR 13.6 6 6

Population Dynamics 7

Evolution of Population growth rates Growth rate is the rate at which a population is growing. A positive growth rate means that a population is growing while a declining growth rate indicates only that the population is growing at a slower rate. As it can be shown in the chart, Mauritius had a peak growth rate of 3.12 in 1962 and at the same time our Total Fertility Rate(TFR) was 6.3 in 1963. 8 8

Population Dynamics Populations grow or decline through the interplay of 3 demographic processes: birth(fertility) death(mortality) migration 9

Demographic Transition(Evolution of CBR and CDR) In Population dynamics, we also have the demographic transition which is the evolution of the Crude Birth Rate and the Crude Death Rate. There has been a shift from high to low birth and death rates. At the beginning of the transition , around 1930 we can see high birth and death rates with a small gap then the gap increases around 1960 which then lead to high population growth also known as the baby boom years. Shift from high to low birth and death rates Initial big gap between birth and death rates lead to high population growth (baby boom years) 10 10

The Family The family is the structural unit within which births usually occur. Thus any changes in the rate of family formation and dissolution play an important role, though indirect, in population growth. Therefore an analysis of marriage and divorce is essential together with the analysis of fertility 11

Marital Status Marital Status Census 2000 (%) Census 2011 (%) Single Distribution of resident population aged 15 years and over by marital status, Republic of Mauritius Marital Status Census 2000 (%) Census 2011 (%) Single 29.2 27.4 Married/In a union 60.0 59.8 Widowed 7.5 8.2 Divorced/Separated 2.9 4.2 Unmarried parent 0.2 0.4 Other & not stated 0.0 Total 100.0 12

Married/In a union Among all persons aged 15 years and above in 2011, around 60% were married or living with a partner, almost the same proportion as in 2000 13

Marital breakdown is on the rise Compared to 2000, separated and divorced persons were on the increase both in absolute numbers and in proportion. In 2000, they were 25,800 in number and made up 4% of all ever-married persons. In 2011, they made up 39,000 or 6% of all ever-married persons. 14

More unmarried parents Unmarried parents, made up mostly of unmarried mothers, were on the increase from 2,100 in 2000 to 3,700 in 2011 15

Number of households The number of households increases but their average size decreases. There were 352,500 households in 2011 compared to 296,800 in 2000 (an increase of around 19%). The average household size however decreased from 3.9 to 3.5. 16

Living Arrangements The typical household comprising a couple with unmarried children which made up nearly two thirds of all private households in 2000 is becoming less common and made up only 54% of all households in 2011. 17

Living Arrangements By contrast, there has been an increase in the following household types: Lone parents households with unmarried children – from 30,800 (10.4%) to 47,900 (13.6%); Persons living alone (single member households) – from 21,500 (6.2%) to 35,600 (10.1%); and Couples without children – from 27,000 (9.1%) to 46,200 (13.1%) 18

Demographic Trends(factors of population change) 19

Fertility Crude birth rate (CBR): the number of live births registered in a year per thousand mid-year population Total Fertility Rate : the average total number of children a woman will have assuming she survives to the end of her child-bearing age and is subjected to a fixed schedule of age-specific fertility rates. TFR is one of the most useful indicators of fertility because it gives the best picture of how many children women are currently having. Indicators of fertility. The crude birth rate is the most easily obtained and most often reported fertility measure. 20 20

Evolution of Total Fertility Rate 21 21

Evolution of Total Fertility Rate In 1963 women were having on average 6.3 children during their reproductive lifespan. TFR then followed a decreasing trend attaining 1.4 in 2015. Replacement level fertility of 2.1 was first attained in 1984. (Replacement-level fertility is the level of childbearing at which women have an average of two children—just replacing themselves in the population(2.1). If a country maintains below replacement fertility for a long time, its population is bound to take a decreasing trend. To replace themselves, women need to have on average of at least one daughter who survives long enough for a granddaughter to be born and so on for future generations. 22 22

Factors contributing to fertility decline Later age at marriage as a result of longer education Employment opportunities for women Cost of childbearing Changing role of women Improved contraception with more accessibility and acceptance of its use Women are more educated nowadays as compared to our grand parents. Almost all women are working and are career oriented nowadays. 23 23

Teenage fertility Teenage fertility is on the decline but remains high compared to developed countries. In 2011, the teenage fertility rate for the Republic of Mauritius was around 32 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19 compared to 39 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19 in 2000. The rate is higher than those for some developed countries such as Germany, Sweden, France and lower than those for African countries such as South Africa and Kenya. 24

Teenage fertility rates for selected countries 25

Women with higher educational attainment have fewer children. Fertility rates among women of different backgrounds Women with higher educational attainment have fewer children. In 2011, women with tertiary education had on average 0.8 child compared to 1.2 children for women with secondary education and 1.5 children for women with primary education. 26

Fertility rates among women of different backgrounds Economically active women showed lower fertility than their non-active counterparts. In the Republic of Mauritius, housewives had the highest parity (1.63) followed by unemployed women (1.34) and employed women (1.15). A very important type of fertility data collected at censuses is the number of children ever born to ever-married women. Parity is the number of children previously born alive to a women. 27 27

Childlessness Childlessness is the proportion of women who have reached the end of their child-bearing years and have not had any children. This can be derived for women aged 50 years and over from the census question which asks each women the number of live babies she has ever had. 28

Childlessness The proportion of women aged 50 – 54 who have never had a baby represents the group who has most recently completed their reproductive life, childless. This proportion is used as an indicator of the level of childlessness in the population. In 2011, around 5% of women aged 50-54 years were childless in the Republic of Mauritius. 29

Childlessness From 2000 to 2011, the proportion of childless women increased from 4.2% to 5.1% in the Island of Mauritius. The rise was lower in the Island of Rodrigues, from 2.2% in 2000 to 2.6% in 2011. Women with higher educational attainment are more prone to childlessness. Childlessness is more prevalent among employed women than housewives. 30

International comparison of childlessness % of childless women aged 40-44 years in selected countries Country Year % of childless women Kenya 2009 2.6 Botswana 2006 3.4 India Mauritius 2011 4.8 South Africa 2003 5.9 Brazil 11.3 Saudi Arabia 2007 13.4 Australia 15.9 USA 2010 18.8 UK 20.0 Singapore 23.1 The proportion of childless women is assumed to be rising in developed countries mainly due to postponement of childbearing and a deliberate intention not to have children. Source: United Nations, World Fertility Report 2012 31 31

Marriage Rate/Divorce Rate 32

Marriage and Divorce While marriage rate is declining, divorce rate is on the rise. The trend is towards later marriage. Women with higher educational attainment tend to marry later. 2,161 divorces were granted by Court in 2015. About one third of the couples who divorced in 2015 did not have children while slightly more than fifty percent of them had 1 to 2 children. 33

Life expectancy At birth: The average number of years that a new born baby would be expected to live if current mortality rates continue to apply At age 60: The average number of additional years that a person aged 60 years would be expected to live if current mortality rates continue to apply 34

Life expectancy at birth more than doubled between 1944 and 2014 The low life expectancy at birth in the past can to some extent be explained by the high infant mortality prevailing at that time Gap between men and women: 1 year in 1944, around 8 yrs in 1990, 6.7yrs in 2014; gap has slightly decreased in the recent past. 35

Men will live up to 78 years and women will live up to 82 years At age 60 also women are expected to live longer than men. Currently another 22 years for women against 18 years for men Gap between male and female: 2.5 years in 1944, 4.3 years in 1990 and 3.8 years in 2014 36 36

Some of the reasons for improved life expectancy over the years Improved supply of safe water Better hygiene and sanitation Immunization against major infectious diseases The adoption of scientific and medical advances. More health care provisions. Safer and healthier working conditions Migration impact on population is very little for Mauritius. Data on migration is quite scanty. 37 37

International Comparison 38

Selected Indicators Usually African countries have high TFR, and low life expectancy Mauritius being an exception. 39 39

Future prospects 40

The projected population The population starts to decline as from year 2019. 41 41

Population pyramid a figure that show the proportion of the population in each age group. three general types of population pyramids: those depicting rapid growth, slow growth, and population decline. rapid-growth: the only one that really looks like a pyramid because each age cohort is larger than the one born before it.( high fertility and declines in mortality) 42

The evolution of the age profile of the population – past, present, future - characteristics of rapid growth, typical pyramidal shape 2015 – slow growth 2054 – slow growth Size and structure of pyramids determined by patterns of births, deaths and migration Main changes observed over time are: shrinking of the base over time due to falling fertility thickening of the upper body indicating an increase in life expectancy relatively longer bars on the female side around its apex indicating the predominance of females among the elderly. 43 43

Population ageing - definition Population ageing is described as the rise in the median age of the population as a result of the shifting of the age structure of the population towards the upper end of the age distribution. For statistical purposes the elderly is taken to be those aged 60 years and above. 44

Forecast of the elderly population (60+) 45

Thank you 46