Decomposing the Long Term Decline of Internal Migration NI 1981-2011 Mr. Brad Campbell & Dr. Ian Shuttleworth Queen’s University Belfast

Background An emerging temporal and spatial pattern of declining migration in the Advanced World; United States (Cooke, 2013) England & Wales (Champion and Shuttleworth, 2016) Canada (Basher and Fachin, 2008) Northern Ireland A key debate within the literature has been to the factors driving this decline and the importance of; Compositional (e.g. population structure) change Behavioural (move towards immobility) change

Global – Local Implications Declining internal migration in developed economies potential challenges including; Economic Inter-regional supply of labour. Problematic for recruitment in regions where the working population is older i.e. in retirement seaside towns if migration slows. Economy will be slow to react to shocks (Batini et al, 2010). And in NI in particular social policy questions With less people moving between areas the potential for inter mixing between Protestants and Catholics is restricted. Residential segregation will remain relatively high over the long term.

Aim & Objectives Aim: Assess the degree to which compositional and/or behavioural changes is driving the observed long term decline of internal migration activity in NI between 1981 and 2011. Compositional Effects: How are changes in the structure of the population affecting migratory activity? I.e. an increase in the proportion of elderly population, educational attainment and changing tenure. Rate (or Behaviour) Effects: How changes in the behaviour of sub groups and the general population intersect to change migratory activity? I.e. technology through improved transport and ICT has enabled people to access employment opportunities at home without having to migrate.

Data Draw on data from the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (NILS). Represents a c.28% sample of the NI population spanning each census from 1981 through to 2011 containing; Census variables i.e. religion, age and social class. Identify members whose area of residence (SOA) is different between censuses.

Methodology 1) Identify NILS members present aged 16-74 at the start of each transition period; 1981 and 1991 2001 and 2011 2) Using the base geography of SOAs, assess whether the members made a move between areas. Census A Census B 95BB01S1 95DD04W1

Methodology Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition Technique Performed using STATA . Similarly used by Cooke’s (2011) study of declining US internal migration. Separates out the known/measurable differences between two groups into ; Endowments – Compositional effects Coefficients – rate or behavioural effects Interactions

Migratory Activity over Time NI is experiencing a similar decline of internal migratory activity as experienced in US, England and Wales, and Canada (Cooke, 2011; Champion and Shuttleworth, 2016).

Results What is causing the 8.9% reduction in migratory activity between 1981-1991 and 2001-2011.

Components of Change Behavioural change is the main driver of driver of declining migration.

Socio-Demographic Factors Endowments: Age, size, religion and tenure Coefficients: Constant, age, marital, and religion

Age Evidence of aging of the NI population. Reference Variable Endowments % Coefficients % Interaction % 60-74 45-59 1.0 14.9 -0.9 30-44 5.0 41.5 -2.4 25-29 -7.5 13.7 2.3 20-24 -18.2 8.1 3.3 16-19 -9.7 1.7 0.5 Age Total -29.3 79.8 2.7 Evidence of aging of the NI population. Translated into a growth in the proportion of age groups who are traditionally more immobile. Aging of the population has been offset by a growth in geographical mobility amongst the older age groups.

Marital Reference Variable Endowments % Coefficients % Interaction % Single Married 4.92 -18.94 -3.54   SWD* 1.47 -0.81 0.37 Marital Total 6.39 -19.75 -3.17 * Separated, Widowed or Divorced (SWD) The proportion of people married or previously married has grown in the population. People who are married or SWD tend to be more geographically mobile. Compositional changes have been overshadowed by a substantial reduction in mobility amongst those married.

Tenure Reference Variable Endowments % Coefficients % Interaction % Owner Social -1.59 1.99 3.25 Private Rent -2.04 6.28 0.91 Tenure Total -3.63 8.27 4.16 Evidence of NI’s long term transition to a ‘home owning’ nation. Home owners tend to be more immobile due to being fixed in place. Reduction in the more mobile social and private renting sector. Increase in geographical mobility amongst renters has little impact due to their reduced size in the population.

Religion Population growth in the more immobile Catholic population Reference Variable Endowments % Coefficients % Interaction % Catholic Protestant -3.04 4.09 0.66 None -4.64 6.74 2.95 Religion Total -7.68 10.84 3.61 Population growth in the more immobile Catholic population Population decline in the more mobile Protestant community. An increase in geographical mobility amongst Protestants and None’s has had little impact in the presence of compositional changes.

Conclusion Behavioural change is the principal driver of declining migratory activity in NI. The main effect (like other analyses) is the constant – something pressing migration rates down Similar findings that found in the US and EW More work is required to understand the role of technology and ICT.

References Cooke, T., J. (2011) It is not Just the Economy: Declining Migration and the Rise of Secular Rootedness. Population, Space and Place, 17(3): 193-203 Champion, T., and Shuttleworth, I. (2016) Are People Changing Address Less? An Analysis of Migration within England and Wales, 1971-2011 by Distance of Move. Population, Space and Place, 23(1): Basher, A., S. and Fachin. S. (2008) ‘The long-term decline of internal migration in Canada: the case of Ontario, Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, vol. 1(2-3): 171-181. Batini, N., et al. (2010) United States: Selected Issues Paper. International Monetary Fund Country Report No. 10/248.

Acknowledgements ‘The help provided by the staff of the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (NILS) and the NILS Research Support Unit is acknowledged. The NILS is funded by the Health and Social Care Research and Development Division of the Public Health Agency (HSC R&D Division) and NISRA. The NILS-RSU is funded by the ESRC and the Northern Ireland Government. The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data and any views or opinions presented are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of NISRA/NILS.’