Identification of Restoration Sites for a Fire-dependent Bird in an Urbanizing Environment Bradley A. Pickens North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife.

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Presentation transcript:

Identification of Restoration Sites for a Fire-dependent Bird in an Urbanizing Environment Bradley A. Pickens North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, NCSU Landscape Ecology Solutions, L.L.C. Project Coauthors: Jeffrey F. Marcus Paul J. Taillie The Nature Conservancy North Carolina State University John P. Carpenter, Scott Anderson North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission Jaime A. Collazo U.S. Geological Survey, North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, North Carolina State University

South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative Indicator-driven approach to conservation planning Does not explicitly incorporate urbanization or restoration potential...case studies needed

Pine and Prairie Ecosystem Bachman’s Sparrow as an indicator: Responsive to herbaceous ground cover, low basal area, regular burning, habitat fragmentation Known to correlate with other species of concern Distribution provides insight into the effect of urbanization and restoration potential

Objectives 1) Develop species distribution model for Bachman's Sparrow based on species–habitat relationships 2) Determine effects of urban growth (2010-2090) 3) Develop scenarios to identify potential restoration sites and determine interaction of restoration and urban growth by 2050, including projections of patch size and isolation

+ Modeling Overview Species distribution model defines habitat Environmental spatial data + Statistics! Validation On-the-ground bird data Restoration scenarios Final species distribution model Calculate percent habitat within 1, 3, 5, 7 km radii Urbanization Statistics!

Presence Data Bachman’s sparrow presence locations synthesized from North Carolina: North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission (n = 544) North Carolina State University (n = 99) - Paul Taillie, Christopher Moorman, M. Nils Piels Virginia Tech / Camp LeJeune (n = 84) - Jeff Walters

Modeling Methods 4 methodologies + heterogeneous detection = presence-only modeling Resource Selection Function: Use vs. Availability - 60% of data for training / 40% for validation 727 pseudo-absences placed within extent of survey data. Excluded urban developed and row crops

Environmental Variables A) LANDFIRE- fire 1 km resolution B) Mean canopy cover- 300x300 m, 900x900 m (NLCD) C) SD canopy cover- 300x300 m, 900x900 m (NLCD) D) Evergreen land cover- 300x300 m, 900x900 m (NLCD) E) Row crop agriculture (NLCD)- 3 km F) Urbanization (SLEUTH)- 3 km

Urban Scenarios 1) Examine urban‒fire relationship 2) Urban growth effects examined for 2010 ‒ 2090 (Terando et al. 2014)– assumed Bachman’s Sparrow are excluded by urbanization 3) Assumption! Current predicted Bachman’s sparrow distribution is sustained as habitat (i.e., continues to be burned)

Restoration Scenarios 1) Canopy cover reduction by 30% 2) Prescribed fire everywhere except urban and row crop agriculture 3) Canopy cover reduction and prescribed fire Longleaf pine savanna Fire-suppressed pine forest

Habitat Relationships Moderate heterogeneity Localized canopy gaps Moderate canopy cover

Habitat Relationships

Validation Predicted absences were 90% correct Predicted presences were 87% correct Camp Lejeune Holly Shelter Game Land

Urban Effects 80,872 ha of predicted distribution on protected lands No buffer 600 m buffer ~ fire suppression

Current Prediction

Urban Growth by 2050

Urban Growth by 2050 and Fire

Urban Growth by 2050 and Canopy Cover Reduction

The Future -75% with urban growth -9% with urban growth

Important Conclusions Urban effect is projected to consolidate Bachman’s sparrow habitat; high loss of fragmented patches Canopy cover reduction scenarios resulted in 2x the habitat Restoration has potential to create larger patch sizes with less isolation compared to current conditions Urban growth was problematic for fire scenario, but not canopy cover reduction scenario

Acknowledgements Funding provided by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in support of the South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative Data sources: North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission; North Carolina State University (Paul Taillie, Christopher Moorman, M. Nils Piels); Virginia Tech/Camp LeJeune (Jeff Walters)

Questions? http://salcc.databasin.org Brad Pickens, bpickens99@gmail.com

Wildland‒Fire Relationship Based on LANDFIRE data (100 m resolution)