COST Action ES0803 Analysis of the ultimate space storm A Scientific and Operational Framework for ES0803 M. Messerotti1.2 1 INAF-Astronomical Observatory of Trieste 2 Department of Physics, University of Trieste 02/04/2009 MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

Aim of the Project DEFINE THE ULTIMATE SPACE STORM SIMULATE TRIGGERS, PERTURBATIONS AND EFFECTS ASSESS AND IMPROVE RESOURCES DISSEMINATE OUTCOMES WG1 WG1 WG1 WG2 WG3 02/04/2009 MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

DEFINE THE ULTIMATE SPACE STORM IDENTIFY THE MOST UNFAVOURABLE CONDITIONS AT: THE SUN THE IPM THE GEOSPACE IDENTIFY THE MOST ADVERSE EFFECTS IN: WG1 SG1.1 WG1 SG1.1 02/04/2009 MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

WORST CONDITIONS AT THE SUN Persistent, magnetically complex, productive AR(s) Outstanding Flares / Series of Flares SPE(s) / SCR Gamma, X, EUV, UV, Radio Outburst(s) Halo/Earth-directed CME(s) Fast Solar Wind Streams WG1 SG1.1 02/04/2009 MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

WORST CONDITIONS AT THE IPM Series of perturbations: Propagation analysis Radio signatures identification and analysis WG1 SG1.1 02/04/2009 MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

WORST CONDITIONS AT THE GEOSPACE Analysis of: Magnetic coupling Perturbations Effects in: Magnetosphere Ionosphere Thermosphere Troposphere Ground WG1 SG1.1 02/04/2009 MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

PRODUCTS 4D MAP OF EFFECTS characterized by: SEVERITY LEVEL GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION This is a key aspect to raise the awareness of funding agencies, stakeholders and decision makers WG1 SG1.1 WG3 SG3.2 02/04/2009 MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

TRIGGERS, PERTURBATIONS AND EFFECTS MODELLING SIMULATION OF THE PHENOMENOLOGY VIA AVAILABLE MODELLING RESOURCES: CCMC SPECIFIC MODELS OTHER WG1 SG1.1 WG1 SG1.2 WG2 SG2.1 02/04/2009 MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

PRODUCTS SURVEY OF EXISTING RESOURCES APPLICATION OF EXISTING RESOURCES INDICATIONS ABOUT IMPROVEMENTS AND NEW REQUIREMENTS MAP OF MODELLING RESOURCES parameterized according to their suitability and effectiveness for the defined goal WG2 SG2.1 WG1 SG1.1 WG1 SG1.2 WG1 SG1.3 WG2 SG2.1 WG2 SG2.3 WG3 SG3.2 02/04/2009 MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

ASSESS, IMPROVE & SUGGEST OBSERVING Existing and New Instruments MODELLING Existing and Required Knowledge and Resources PREDICTING Existing and New Techniques and Resources WARNING Existing and New Messaging Systems MITIGATING Existing and New Techniques WG1 SG1.1 WG1 SG1.2 WG1 SG1.3 WG2 SG2.1 WG2 SG2.3 WG3 SG3.2 02/04/2009 MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

CONCLUSIONS The project: Fulfills the ES0803 MoU Is not an MoU replacement, but an extended use case involving many (but not all) WG SG activities Represents an innovative approach Generates original scientific and applied products Has a great potential impact to the funding agencies, stakeholders and decision makers Is a valuable scientific basis for education and outreach 02/04/2009 MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

The ultimate space storm: characterization and modelling 6th European Space Weather Week 16-20 November, 2009 - Brugge, Belgium http://sidc.oma.be/esww6/ SPLINTER MEETING Room “Bach” 16:30-18:00 Contact: messerotti@oats.inaf.it 18/09/2009 ESWW6 Brugge BE M. Messerotti

ESWW6 Splinter Description Theoretically, the ultimate space storm can be defined as the set of most severe perturbative manifestations originated by the most unfavourable concurrent conditions at the Sun, in the interplanetary space and in geospace. In practice, the above definition has to be extensively and quantitatively detailed in terms of solar weather, interplanetary weather and geospace weather to asset the physical drivers and to evaluate the relevant effects. This project has been started in the framework of COST Action ES0803 "Developing space weather products and services in Europe", but it has to be expanded in order to reach its ambitious goals. In fact, the aim of this splinter meeting is to involve the interested communities in creating a scientific and operational framework to achieve the goal of quantifying via the present and forthcoming modelling tools the worst concurrent space weather effects ever experienced by technological and biological systems, as well as to produce 4D maps of such effects as a working tool for evaluating the maximum risk involved in the various geospace sub-domains and technological sub-systems. The splinter is organized as an open discussion, but short presentations on key topics/use cases suitable to stimulate the discussion are welcome. Key topics: Solar weather (Persistent, magnetically complex, productiveAR(s); Outstanding flares/Series of flares; SPE(s)/SCR; Gamma, X, EUV, UV, RadioOutburst(s); Halo/Earth-directed CME(s); FastSolarWindStreams); Interplanetary weather (Propagating perturbations identification and analysis); Geospace weather (Magnetic coupling; Perturbations; Effects in Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Troposphere-Ground); Advanced modelling tools. 18/09/2009 ESWW6 Brugge BE M. Messerotti