Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation. comments questions: dan.kahan@yale.edu papers, etc: www.culturalcognition.net

The answer is cognitive dualism; but what’s the question? www.culturalcognition.net The answer is cognitive dualism; but what’s the question? Dan M. Kahan Yale University & many x 103 others

[0 “None at all” to 7 “Extremely high”]

[0 “None at all” to 7 “Extremely high”] r = - 0.65, p < 0.01

There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree/disagree] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 -1.8 -1 1.8 left_right probability of answering agreeing Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Conservative Republican Very Conservative Strong Republican Left_right Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 2389. Logistic re “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs. What? You don’t like my spikes? Well piss off, then!

“ . . . human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 -1.8 -1 1.8 left_right probability of answering “true” Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Conservative Republican Very Conservative Strong Republican Left_right Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1166. Logistic regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs.

“. nuclear power generation contributes to global warming “. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 -1.8 -1 1.8 probability of answering “true” Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Conservative Republican Very Conservative Strong Republican Left_right Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1166. Logistic regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs.

“ . . . human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 -1.8 -1 1.8 left_right probability of answering “true” Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Conservative Republican Very Conservative Strong Republican Left_right Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1166. Logistic regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs.

“ . . . human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 -1.8 -1 1.8 left_right probability of correct response Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Conservative Republican Very Conservative Strong Republican Left_right Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1166. Logistic regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs.

“. nuclear power generation contributes to global warming “. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 -1.8 -1 1.8 probability of correct response Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Conservative Republican Very Conservative Strong Republican Left_right Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1166. Logistic regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs.

Ideological symmetry

The “prefix effect” . . . prefix: “According to climate scientists, . . .” “According to climate scientists, human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] “According to climate scientists, nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] no prefix: “ . . . ” “Human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] “Nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False]

“ . . . human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 -1.8 -1 1.8 left_right probability of correct response without prefix Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Conservative Republican Very Conservative Strong Republican Left_right Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1166. Locally weighted regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures.

“According to climate scientists, human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 -1.8 -1 1.8 left_right with prefix probability of correct response without prefix Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Conservative Republican Very Conservative Strong Republican Left_right Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1166. Locally weighted regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures.

“. nuclear power generation contributes to global warming “. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 -1.8 -1 1.8 without prefix probability of correct response Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Conservative Republican Very Conservative Strong Republican Left_right Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1166. Locally weighted regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures.

““According to climate scientists, nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 -1.8 -1 1.8 without prefix with prefix probability of correct response Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Conservative Republican Very Conservative Strong Republican Left_right Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1166. Locally weighted regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures.

“Ordinary Science Intelligence” Assessment 2.0

probability of correct response “ . . . human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] below avg left_right, prefix above avg left_right prefix probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) “. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] above avg left_right no prefix probability of correct response below avg left_right no prefix Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

probability of correct response “ . . . human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) “. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] above avg left_right no prefix probability of correct response below avg left_right no prefix Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

probability of correct response “ . . . human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) “. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] above avg left_right with prefix above avg left_right no prefix below avg left_right, with prefix probability of correct response below avg left_right no prefix Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

probability of correct response “ . . . human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] below avg left_right, with prefix below avg left_right without prefix above avg left_right with prefix probability of correct response above avg left_right no prefix Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) “. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] above avg left_right with prefix below avg left_right, with prefix probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

probability of correct response “ . . . human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] below avg left_right, with prefix below avg left_right without prefix above avg left_right with prefix probability of correct response above avg left_right without prefix Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) “. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] above avg left_right with prefix below avg left_right, with prefix probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

probability of correct response “ . . . human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] below avg left_right, with prefix below avg left_right without prefix above avg left_right with prefix probability of correct response above avg left_right without prefix Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) “. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] above avg left_right with prefix above avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right, with prefix probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

probability of correct response “ . . . human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] below avg left_right, with prefix below avg left_right without prefix above avg left_right with prefix probability of correct response above avg left_right without prefix Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) “. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] above avg left_right with prefix above avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right, with prefix probability of correct response below avg left_right without prefix Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

Ideological symmetry

So what’s the question? . . . Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure? A1. Not what one knows, but who one is. Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities? A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate- science literacy test. Q3. What mechanism of cognition is the study modeling? A3. Cognitive dualism.

So what’s the question? . . . Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure? A1. Not what one knows, but who one is. Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities? A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate- science literacy test. Q3. What mechanism of cognition is the study modeling? A3. Cognitive dualism.

So what’s the question? . . . Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure? A1. Not what one knows, but who one is. Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities? A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate- science literacy test. Q3. What mechanism of cognition is the study modeling? A3. Cognitive dualism.

So what’s the question? . . . Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure? A1. Not what one knows, but who one is. Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities? A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate- science literacy test. Q3. What mechanism of cognition is the study modeling? A3. Cognitive dualism.

[0 “None at all” to 7 “Extremely high”] r = - 0.65, p < 0.01

There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree/disagree] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 -1.8 -1 1.8 left_right probability of answering agreeing Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Conservative Republican Very Conservative Strong Republican Left_right Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 2389. Logistic re “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs. What? You don’t like my spikes? Well piss off, then!

Ideological symmetry climate-science ignorance

“Belief” in climate change: who you are, not what you know = 0.88 loadings < 0.3 suppressed

probability of correct response “ . . . human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] below avg left_right, with prefix below avg left_right without prefix above avg left_right with prefix probability of correct response above avg left_right without prefix Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) “. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] above avg left_right with prefix above avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right, with prefix probability of correct response below avg left_right without prefix Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

“Belief” in climate change: who you are, not what you know OSI_1.0 science comprehension (OSI_1.0) # correct

Conservative Republican “Belief” in climate change: who you are, not what you know OSI_2.0 Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Colored bars denote 0.95 CIs.

So what’s the question? . . . Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure? A1. Not what one knows, but who one is. Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities? A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate- science literacy test. Q3. What mechanism of cognition is the study modeling? A3. Cognitive dualism.

So what’s the question? . . . Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure? A1. Not what one knows, but who one is. Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities? A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate- science literacy test. Q3. What mechanism of cognition is the study modeling? A3. Cognitive dualism.

So what’s the question? . . . Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure? A1. Not what one knows, but who one is. Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities? A2. Yup. Q3. What mechanism of cognition is the study modeling? A3. Cognitive dualism.

So what’s the question? . . . Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure? A1. Not what one knows, but who one is. Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities? A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate- science literacy test. Q3. What mechanism of cognition is the study modeling? A3. Cognitive dualism.

Unconfounding knowledge & identity: Evolution

Unconfounding knowledge & identity: Evolution

Unconfounding knowledge & identity: Evolution

Unconfounding knowledge & identity: Climate change bars denote 0.95 CIs

Unconfounding knowledge & identity: Climate change bars denote 0.95 CIs

Unconfounding knowledge & identity: Climate change bars denote 0.95 CIs

OCSI scores & “beliefs” on climate change 9 8 7 6 5 No. correct No. correct 4 3 2 1 CIs denote 0.95 level confidence for estimated population means.

conservative Republican OCSI scores in relation to OSI scores liberal Democrat Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence (percentile) conservative Republican Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) N = 597. OLS regression. “Liberal Democrat” and “Conservative Republican” reflect corresponding predictor values on a composite political orientation scale comprising responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Colored bars denote 0.95 CIs.

probability of correct response “ . . . human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) “. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] above avg left_right with prefix below avg left_right, with prefix probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

“Climate scientists believe that nuclear power generation contributes to global warming” [True or false] bars denote 0.95 CIs

“Climate scientists believe that nuclear power generation contributes to global warming” [True or false] bars denote 0.95 CIs

So what’s the question? . . . Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure? A1. Not what one knows, but who one is. Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities? A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate- science literacy test. Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling? A3. Cognitive dualism.

So what’s the question? . . . Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure? A1. Not what one knows, but who one is. Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities? A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate- science literacy test. Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling? A3. Cognitive dualism.

So what’s the question? . . . Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure? A1. Not what one knows, but who one is. Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities? A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate- science literacy test. Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling? A3. Contested authority of science.

probability of correct response “ . . . human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] below avg left_right, with prefix below avg left_right without prefix above avg left_right with prefix probability of correct response above avg left_right without prefix Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) “. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] above avg left_right with prefix above avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right, with prefix probability of correct response below avg left_right without prefix Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

So what’s the question? . . . Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure? A1. Not what one knows, but who one is. Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities? A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate- science literacy test. Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling? A3. Contested authority of science.

So what’s the question? . . . Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure? A1. Not what one knows, but who one is. Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities? A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate- science literacy test. Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling? A3. Contested authority of science. A3. Cognitive dualism

Cognitive dualism: evolution “belief”

Cognitive dualism: climate-change “belief”

So what’s the question? . . . Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure? A1. Not what one knows, but who one is. Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities? A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate- science literacy test. Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling? A3. Cognitive dualism A3. Contested authority of science. A4.1 The first—who are you; whose side are you on . . . A4.2 Except in SE Florida

probability of correct response “ . . . human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] below avg left_right without prefix probability of correct response above avg left_right without prefix Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) “. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] above avg left_right without prefix probability of correct response below avg left_right without prefix Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

probability of correct response “ . . . human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) “. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] above avg left_right with prefix below avg left_right, with prefix probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

So what’s the question? . . . Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure? A1. Not what one knows, but who one is. Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities? A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate- science literacy test. Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling? A3. Cognitive dualism A3. Contested authority of science. A4.1 The first—who are you; whose side are you on . . . A4.2 Except in SE Florida

So what’s the question? . . . Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure? A1. Not what one knows, but who one is. Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities? A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate- science literacy test. Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling? A3. Cognitive dualism A3. Contested authority of science. Q4. Which “belief” in human-caused climate change does democratic politics measure? A4.1 The first—who are you; whose side are you on . . . A4.2 Except in SE Florida

So what’s the question? . . . Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure? A1. Not what one knows, but who one is. Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities? A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate- science literacy test. Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling? A3. Cognitive dualism A3. Contested authority of science. Q4. Which “belief” in human-caused climate change does democratic politics measure? A4.1. The first—who are you; whose side are you on . . . A4.2. Except in SE Florida

So what’s the question? . . . Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure? A1. Not what one knows, but who one is. Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities? A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate- science literacy test. Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling? A3. Cognitive dualism A3. Contested authority of science. Q4. Which “belief” in human-caused climate change does democratic politics measure? A4.1 The first—who are you; whose side are you on . . . A4.2 Except in SE Florida

So what’s the question? . . . Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure? A1. Not what one knows, but who one is. Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities? A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate- science literacy test. Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling? A3. Cognitive dualism A3. Contested authority of science. Q4. Which “belief” in human-caused climate change does democratic politics measure? A4.1 The first—who are you; whose side are you on . . . A4.2 Except in SE Florida

Southeast Florida’s climate political science . . .

Evidence-based Policy Science Communication Initiative Soute Evidence-based Policy Science Communication Initiative

www. culturalcognition.net “I am you!” 71