Chapter 2 Key Issue 2 The Demographic Transition Model

What is the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)? The demographic transition model explains the transformation of countries from having high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates. In more economically developed countries (MEDC), this transition began in the 18th century and continues today. Less economically developed countries (LEDC) began the transition later and many are still in earlier stages of the model.

Stage 1: Low Growth Birth Rate is high as a result of: Typical of Britain in the 18th century and Some remote tribes today Stage 1: Low Growth CBR and CDR are both very high so NIR is almost 0 CBR and CDR change wildly from year to year Primarily seen in hunter- gatherer societies No countries located here today…some remote tribes Birth Rate is high as a result of: Lack of family planning High Infant Mortality Rate Need for workers in agriculture Religious beliefs Children as economic assets Death Rate is high because of: High levels of disease Famine Lack of clean water and sanitation Lack of health care War Competition for food from predators such as rats Lack of education

Stage 2: High Growth CDR falls rapidly while CBR remains high, population rises rapidly Death Rate is falling as a result of: Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine) Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled) Improved sanitation Improved food production and storage Improved transport for food Decreased Infant Mortality Rates Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria; Sub-Saharan Africa

Stage 3: Moderate Growth CBR starts to decline while CDR continues to stay low – Growth continues to spike upward and then levels off Reasons: Family planning available Lower Infant Mortality Rate Increased mechanization reduces need for workers Increased standard of living Changing status of women Typical of Britain in late 19th and early 20th century; East Asia, Latin America, Middle East China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Chile

Typical of USA; UK; Sweden Stage 4: Low Growth Typical of USA; UK; Sweden A country reaches this point when the CBR and CDR are low and almost equal leading to an NIR of almost 0 Zero Population Growth – ZPG means no growth Reasons for Change: Women in workforce instead of home Availability of Birth Control Changes in leisure activity not suitable for couples with children (bars, travel) Higher education levels Pessimism about future

THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION Stage One: CBR- very high CDR- very high NIR- low Population Growth: Low Movement from Stage One to Stage Two: MEDC- Industrial Revolution LEDC- Medical Revolution (Introduction of European & American medicines to developing countries

THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION Stage Two: CBR- very high CDR- plummets NIR- high Population Growth: High Movement from Stage Two to Stage Three: Changes in social customs and improved technology

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION Stage Three: CBR: Drops quickly CDR: Falling but slower than before NIR: slows Population Growth: Moderate Movement from Stage Three to Stage Four: Greater gender equality, more women working and improved birth control Stage Four: CBR: low CDR: low NIR: low Population Growth: Low

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION Examples of Countries and Regions of each stage of demographic transition: Stage One: Stage Two: None (Some remote tribes) Sub-Saharan Africa Nigeria, Sierra Leon, East Asia, Latin America, Middle East China, Brazil, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Chile Western Europe United States, United Kingdom, Sweden Stage Three: Stage Four:

Typical of Germany, Japan, Russia Stage Five: ??? Reasons for changes in birth rate: Family planning Better health Later marriages Improved status of women Materialism Birth Rate slight fall and very low. Death Rate low and stable. Natural increase: slowly decreases Reasons for changes in death rate: Good health care Reliable food supply Preventative Medicine People are generally living longer

What are the limitations? What limitations do you think there could be with the model? It does not include the influences of migration It assumes that all countries will go through the same pattern There is no time scale Reasons for birth rates and death rates are very different in different countries

Key Terms Demographic Transition Model Zero Population Growth Medical Revolution