Prospects at the Agricultural Markets in Bulgaria and the EU Capital Newspaper and ITC Media Expectations about the International Agricultural Market by 2025 Sofia Hotel, 10 November 2016 Jens Schaps Directorate C "Single Market Organisation" DG Agriculture and Rural Development European Commission

Outline 1. Agriculture is the first economic sector in rural areas – we create jobs, growth and development 2. Globally, the prospects for Agriculture are good – however price and volume volatility remain an issue 3. Demand is growing – consumers want high quality products and world demand is seen to grow steadily 4. The EU and Bulgaria have their place in these developments and we should take our changes! 2

Agriculture and food in the EU economy

Bulgarian Agriculture Agriculture holds an important share on total GDP - 5,6% High number of small scale farms with high UAA – 300000 Apparently income perspectives are comparable good in Agriculture but productivity gains are necessary Dominant position of arable crops – cereals, oilseeds, protein crops, the livestock sector is comparable small - 27% against 42% for the EU as a whole Bulgaria has a clear agricultural net export position with a wide range of competitive products: cereals, oilseeds, protein crops, dairy products and not least honey 4

Production shares - Bulgaria

EU Cereals Production in 2015 at 310 Mio t

Yield Evolution for wheat – t/ha

Weather Condition 2016 – "Mars"

EU Cereals Demand: Food, Feed and Exports

World Oilseeds production in Mio t

EU Oilseed production, Mio t

EU Oilmeals production and Imports – Mio t

EU Cereals Supply: Wheat to stay No 1 in EU Annual changes in area and yields by crops between 2011-2015 and 2025 in the EU (%)

Source : EUROSTAT, Reg. (EC) No 479/2010 Art. 1(a)1

2016 Milk collection compared to 2015

Medium term perspectives

EU Pigmeat Prices – class E €/100Kg

EU28 agri-food trade, 2005-15 Source: COMEXT

Bulgaria Trade in Agriculture

Some points for future consideration Bulgaria will continue to develop a more competitive sector – farm structure will further adapt and farm size will increase Advantages in arable crops – home grown cereals and protein crops are the future input for the EU livestock sector The Bulgarian Livestock sector has much potential and the EU market can take much more products In certain cases farmers may want to join producer organisations and inter-professional cooperative structures In line with economic growth the home market will expand and local product always have a preference for consumers 23

Thank you for your attention! Reports and data available at: http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_en.htm http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/markets-and-prices/index_en.htm http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/policy-perspectives/index_en.htm http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/trade-analysis/index_en.htm Thank you for your attention! 24