Lee Hannah Conservation International

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Presentation transcript:

Lee Hannah Conservation International Impacts of Global Climate Change on Southern African Ecosystems (continued) Lee Hannah Conservation International

The Future of Species (Area of biome loss) 20% of species lose all climate space (extinct under all dispersal assumptions) 53% of species suffer total range displacement (extinct under ‘no dispersal’ assumption) More range lost to climate change than to present land transformation

Species Modeling Proteaceae - displacement risk

Species Modeling - Range Shifts

Field Confirmation

Dynamic Reserve System 343 Protea species from the Fynbos Serruria nervosa Potential future reserve expansions

Protected Areas Working Group Configuration 1 Configuration 2 Configuration 3 Configuration 4 Configuration 5

Collaborative Research Africa plant modeling Andes Biodiversity and Climate Land use and regional climate change

Prospects for the (near) Future Bioinformatics providing species distributions Desktop Regional Climate Models Desktop Species Models Tools for dynamic reserve selection and landscape design

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