The Long-term Impact of Thatcherism on Crime and the CJS Stephen Farrall (CCR, Sheffield Univ). 23rd September 2016, European Society of Criminology.

Who was Margaret Thatcher? Leader of the Conservative Party from 1975 until 1990 (15 years!). Prime Minster from 1979 until 1990 (11 years!). Depending on your political stance, the devil incarnate or the saviour of Britain.

What were her key ideas? The State was doing too much for people; it was getting in the way of economic life and prosperity. It was too domineering – preventing real freedom for many people. It was making all sorts of decisions which it ought not to – and was making things worse not better.

Which policies are we most interested in? Economic policies Housing policies Social security (esp. after 1986) Education policies (esp. after 1988)

Economic Changes During the 1970s there was a move away from the commitment to Keynesian policies and full employment. Dramatic economic restructuring overseen by Thatcher governments. Consequently, levels of unemployment rose through the 1980s (see Fig 1).

Figure 1: Unemployment Rate (%), 1970-2006 Thatcher’s period in office Major’s period in office

Economic Changes This in turn led to increases in levels of inequality (Figure 2), augmented by changes in taxation policies which favoured the better off.

Figure 2: Income Inequality (Gini coefficient), 1970-2006 Thatcher’s period in office Major’s period in office

The Economy and Crime in Post-War Britain Using time series analyses for 1961-2006 Jennings et al (2012) find statistically significant relationships for: 1: the unemployment rate on the rate of property crime (consistent with other studies), 2: we also find that the crime-economy link strengthened during this period. 3: (economic inequality just outside bounds of significance).

Housing Policy 1980 Housing Act (+ others): created RTB – saw a huge rise in owner-occupation. Created residualisation of council housing; transient/marginalised residents with low levels of employment (Murie, 1997). The RTB contributed to concentration of social and economic need ... … and then to the concentration of crime (Farrall et al 2016, BJC).

Social Security 1980-1985: Some tinkering with the DHSS. 1986 Social Security Act based on Fowler Review. Following this payments reduced for many individual benefits claimants (whilst total spend increased due to unemployment). Evidence to suggest that reductions in government expenditure are associated with rises in crime during the 1980s (Reilly and Witt, 1992). Jennings et al (2012) suggest that increases in welfare spending are associated with declines in the property crime rate.

Education ‘Choice’ agenda encouraged schools to exclude poorly performing children to improve league table position. Exclusions rose, reaching a peak of 12,668 in 1996-97. Increased Anti-Social Behaviour (HO RDS Occ. Paper 71). The BCS 1992-2006 shows sudden jump of people reporting “teens hanging around” to be a problem from an average of 8% before 2001 to 30% after 2002. School exclusions helped to create Labour’s discourse of ASB and need for C&DA 1998.

What happened to crime (etc)? Rise in crime (Fig 3). This was generally rising before 1979, but the rate of increase picked up after early 1980s and again in early 1990s. Fear of crime rises (tracks recorded crime rates, Fig 4). Levels of punitive sentiment rise (tracks recorded crime rates, Fig 5).

Figure 3: Property Crime Per Capita (Home Office Recorded Statistics and BCS) Thatcher’s period in office Major’s period in office

Figure 4: Percentage worried about crime (BCS 1982-2005) Thatcher’s period in office Major’s period in office

Major’s period in office Fig 5: Punitive opinion* (excluding the death penalty) and recorded crime in England and Wales, 1980-2013 Thatcher’s period in office Major’s period in office *Based on eight CSE&W and BSAS items relating to sentencing, CJS doing a good job, obeying the law (but excluding those relating to the death penalty).

Developments post-1993 Howard (Home Sec 1993-97) talks and acts tough. Prison population rises immediately; rise in average sentence lengths. Due also to stricter enforcement and mandatory minimum sentences (aimed at burglars and drug traffickers). Prison population grew by 2.5% p.a. from 1945 to 1995, but by 3.8% p.a. 1995-2009 (MoJ, 2009: 4).

More ways of being punitive Thatcher’s CJS Legacy Empty! More ways of being punitive

Labour Party’s Response Move to the political right. ‘Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime’. Focus on ‘young offenders’ (Sch Exclusions related to?). Did not oppose Crime (Sentences) Act 1997 despite it being quite draconian (‘3 strikes’, minimum mandatory sentences).

(not just neo-liberalism) Conclusion Thatcherism was a mix of both neo-liberal and neo-conservative instincts. Changes which were driven by neo-liberal instincts (housing, employment, social security and education) led to rises in crime. Rises in crime increased punitiveness amongst public/politicians (and with a neo-conservative mind-set this meant ‘tougher’ prison sentences). (not just neo-liberalism)

Conclusion Thatcher did have a legacy for crime/the CJS. Crime rise in 1980s-1990s; changes in public sentiments about crime in 1990s and early 2000s; and a ‘toughened’ CJS. The creation of a new ‘consensus’ on crime. As with social attitudes, probably needed Blair’s acquiescence for this to ossify.