Meeting with the Demand Analysis Working Group (DAWG) Energy Efficiency Potentials and Targets for California’s Publically Owned Utilities (POUs) Meeting with the Demand Analysis Working Group (DAWG) Tony Andreoni, CMUA Greg Wikler and Jack Cullen, Navigant September 25, 2014

Table of Contents » 1 » Background 2 » The Approach 3 » The Results

Background Navigant and its Predecessor Summit Blue have conducted the POU assessments of Energy Efficiency Potentials and Targets both in 2009 and 2012 The 2009 assessment included all of California POUs except for SMUD and LADWP The 2012 assessment included all of the California POUs except for LADWP The assessments were designed to meet the requirements of Assembly Bill 2021 (Levine, 2006), which directed the CEC every three years to identify all potentially achievable cost-effective electricity and natural gas efficiency savings and establish 10-year statewide energy efficiency savings targets.

Table of Contents 1 » Background 2 » The Approach 3 » The Results »

The Approach Modeling Approach Utilized Navigant’s Energy Efficiency Resource Assessment Model (EERAM) Navigant worked with each individual utility to obtain the utility and customer characteristics. Navigant utilized the DEER database for energy efficiency savings and cost data as its primary measure impact and cost source. Utility workpapers were used as a secondary measure impact and cost source. The statewide residential and commercial sector end-use surveys were utilized to supplement each utility’s customer information

Energy Efficiency Resource Assessment Model (EERAM) The Approach Energy Efficiency Resource Assessment Model (EERAM) This version of EERAM was also used to develop the 2012 Phase 1 efficiency goals and targets for the California Investor Owned Utilities EERAM is an Excel spreadsheet model designed to estimate technical, economic, and market energy efficiency potential for a utility‘s service area. The model utilizes a bottoms-up approach, using utility building stocks and equipment saturations, utility forecasts, DSM measure impacts and costs, and past utility program accomplishments.

Energy Efficiency Resource Assessment Model (EERAM) The Approach Energy Efficiency Resource Assessment Model (EERAM) Provides year by year forecast estimates of Technical, Economic, and Market Potential Provides output by building type (residential, commercial, and industrial), both existing and new construction Provides output by 22 different end-use categories Incorporates Emerging Technologies Incorporates the effects of Codes and Standards and for the measures included, estimates the savings from Codes and Standards

Table of Contents 1 » Background 2 » The Approach 3 » The Results »

Incremental Energy Savings Targets, 2014-2023 The Results 10-Year Energy Efficiency Targets (Including LADWP) Incremental Energy Savings Targets, 2014-2023

Ten Year Total: Sum of Annual Targets, 2014-2023 The Results Ten Year Total: Sum of Annual Targets, 2014-2023 Utility 10-Year Summation of Incremental Impact (MWh) Average Annual Incremental Savings % of Sales Forecast LADWP 3,774,898 1.40% SMUD 1,807,337 1.50% Anaheim 249,353 1.01% Silicon Valley 216,411 0.66% Riverside 215,317 1.00% Imperial 197,022 0.57% Modesto 182,491 0.67% Turlock 134,049 0.61% Pasadena 127,500 Glendale 120,780 1.07% Burbank 116,574 0.89% Roseville 78,344 0.64% Vernon 66,430 0.51% Palo Alto 65,855 0.63% SF PUC 37,201 0.35%   Top 2 Total 5,582,235 1.43% Remaining Top 13 of 15 Total 1,807,327 0.79% Remaining 25 Total 202,303 0.56% California POU Total 7,591,865 1.26%

10 Year Targets as % of Sales Overall impact about 1.26% of sales The Results 10 Year Targets as % of Sales Overall impact about 1.26% of sales The share of sales is correlated to the size of the utility reflecting issues such as staffing limitations SMUD & LADWP ~1.43% of sales The next 13 of the top 15 ~0.79% of sales The remaining smaller 25 utilities ~0.56% of sales

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