Barbro Wickman-Parak, 3 October 2007

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Presentation transcript:

Barbro Wickman-Parak, 3 October 2007 The Riksbank and monetary policy - perspectives on interest rate forecasts Barbro Wickman-Parak, 3 October 2007

Figure 1. Labour market had tightened Per cent of labour force Open unemployment Total unemployment Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecast in MPR 2007:2. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 2. Labour shortages had increased Net figures Manufacturing industry Three service industries Construction sector Retail trade Source: The National Institute of Economic Research

Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 3. The weak productivity growth was assessed as temporary Annual percentage change Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecast in MPR 2007:2. Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Figure 4. Inflation was in line with the forecast but… Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecast in MPR 2007:2.

Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecast in MPR 2007:2 Figure 5. …companies’ costs rose Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecast in MPR 2007:2 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 6. Rising food prices Annual percentage change The Economist commodity index for foods (left scale) Food prices for consumers (right scale) Sources: The Economist, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 7. Rising inflation expectations Annual percentage change CPI Households, NIER Companies, NIER Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecast in MPR 2007:2. Sources: The NIER, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 8. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

Figure 9. Expectations of the repo rate according to implied forward rates Per cent Source: The Riksbank

Figure 10. Interest rate expectations 19 and 20 June Per cent Repo rate Bank certificates/FRA 20 June 2007 Bank certificates/FRA 19 June 2007 MPR 2007:2 Source: The Riksbank