Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi

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Presentation transcript:

Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi Director of National Population Studies And Comprehensive Management Institute Ph.D in Demography, Australian National University Families and Households, Fertility, International Migration Professor of Demography, University of Tehran Visiting Fellow, Australian National University President of Population Association of Iran Laureate of the 2011 UN Population Award

Age-Structural Changes and Demographic Window in Iran: Opportunities and Challenges Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi Rasoul Sadeghi Meimanat Hosseini Chavoshi 2-3 September 2017

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi OUTLINE Introduction: Demographic Dividend Demographic Transition in Iran Age structural change Demographic window in Iran Age-structural and educational composition Is the demographic window seized? Unemployment Women’s employment Brain Drain Conclusions M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONS ARE COMPLEX AND INTERRELATED Weeks, 2012 Impact on Society M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi First Demographic Dividend At an early stage of [demographic] transition, fertility rates fall, leading to fewer young mouths to feed. During this period, the labor force temporarily grows more rapidly than the population dependent on it, freeing up resources for investment in economic development and family welfare. The “first demographic dividend” is transitory because, eventually, the population of working age ceases to increase. -- Lee and Mason (2006) M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Second Demographic Dividend A second dividend is also possible. A population concentrated at older working ages and facing an extended period of retirement has a powerful incentive to accumulate assets— unless it is confident that its needs will be provided for by families or governments. -- Lee and Mason (2006) M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Demographic dividend or education dividend? The beneficial effect of change in age structure after a decrease fertility has become known as demographic dividend. Yet, the possibility of the effect owing to educational change rather than age structure change is under question. Recent studies by Lutz et all (2013) has shown that “educational attainment expansions are able to account for the sizable productivity effects that other writers had assumed to be caused by age-structure changes”. Thus, improvements in education, rather than fertility declines, are the main driver of subsequent economic growth. These results call into question the notion of a demographic window opening and closing (Lutz, 2014: 530). M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Source: Lutz (2014: 30)

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi What Do We Know About Demographic Transition in Iran? M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi ‎Trend of population number and growth rate in Iran, 1880-2011 M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Total Fertility Trends by rural and urban areas in Iran, 1972-2011 M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Ref: Abbasi-Shavazi and Hosseini-Chavoshi, 2014

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Age-Specific Fertility Trends in Iran, 1972-2011 M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Source: Abbasi-Shavazi, Hosseini-Chavoshi, Banihashemi, and Khosravi (2013).

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Female Singulate mean age at marriage (SMAM) and age specific percentages married, 1976-2006, Iran Year SMAM Married% 15-19 20-24 25-29 1976 19.7 34.3 78.6 93.2 1986 19.8 33.5 79.6 90.6 1996 22.4 18.6 60.7 85.2 2006 23.3 16.9 50.3 75.9 2011 23.4 21.4 52.9 73.8 M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Fertility and Mortality Trends M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Population and Age Structural Transition in Iran M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

Iran’s age structure, 1986 M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

IRAN’S AGE TRANSITIONS, 2011-2051

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Iran’s age pyramid, 2016 M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Iran’s age transitions, 2011-2051 Window of Opportunity M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Child and Old Dependency Ratios, 1950-2100 M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Demographic Window of Opportunity, Opening and Closing Time M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Per capita Labor Income and total Consumption, Age Profile, Iran, 2012 M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

Working age population Mean years of schooling Human Capital M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Increased education and human capital dynamics in Iran M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Increased mean years of schooling in Iran, 1970-2030 M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Internet users (per 100 people) Muslim-majority countries 1990-2015 M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Low Female Labour Force Participation in Iran, 2006- 2016 M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Unemployment among youth in Iran, 2006-2016 M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Unemployment by Education, 2011 M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Population and Employment (Shaded) Age Pyramid, Iran, 2011 M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

Youth migration and Brain Drain Human Capital Waste High Unemployment And Low FLFP Low GDP Youth migration and Brain Drain Human capital waste M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Experiences in reaping DD in other countries: Demographic Miracle to Demographic Waste Demographic Miracle in South East Asia 31 % of GDP due to DD (Bloom and Williamson 1998) Impact of demographic window on high economic growth in Japan (Ogawa 2005). Economic waste High unemployment and ow economic growth during demographic winder (Bloom et al. 2001). Note: experiencing demographic dividend does not automatically lead to economic growth, and it depends upon the institutional and political context, designing and implementing relevant polices to read the dividend. M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi List of countries and territories by Iranian population Country Iranian-born Residents of Iranian ancestry United States 283,225 (2000) 448,722 (2010 US Census) to around 1-2 million (2014, USA Government and other sources) Turkey ~500,000 (2010) Qatar 27000 UAE 400,000-500,000 (2008) Canada 95,420 (2006) 163,290 (2011) Germany 100,000 - 120,000 (2003) Kuwait 80,000 (2003) Malaysia 100000 Sweden 53,892 (2000) 92,428 (2011) Japan 12,000 (2000) 7,000 (2000) M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi List of countries and territories by Iranian population Country Iranian-born Residents of Iranian ancestry Russia 50,000 (2002) Bahrain 173,000 (2014) Israel 47,800 (2007) 135,000 (2007) United Kingdom 83,000 (2011) Netherlands 35,561 (2014) Australia 34,455 (2011) 36,168 (2011) France 18,376 (2000) Denmark 8,977 (1991) Italy 7,444 (2010) Austria 16,203 (1.1.2015) 17,000-20,000 (2013) Switzerland 4,044 (2000) Norway 17,913 (2012) New Zealand 2,895 (2006) Spain 12,344 (2011) Portugal 339 (2011) M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Iranian migrants in Australia by year of Arrival and sex The 2011 Australia Census M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Age structure of Iranian migrants in Australia The 2011 Australia Census M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

Iranian migrants in Australia by highest level of education (% among those stated their education level) The 2011 Australia Census Age No tertiary education Tertiary education: Certificate/ Graduate diploma Tertiary education: Bachelor, Master, PhD Total 20-24 56.1 9.6 34.3 100.0 25-29 22.5 7.5 70.0 30-34 15.0 6.0 78.9 35-39 18.3 7.6 74.1 40-44 26.0 12.1 61.9 45-49 31.1 17.2 51.7 50-54 34.0 16.0 50.0 55-59 32.6 11.0 56.4 60-64 37.3 9.1 53.5 65+ 57.6 5.4 37.1 M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi Iranian migrants 20 years or more in Australia by having tertiary education and the field of qualification (% among those stated their education level) The 2011 Australia Census M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi TAKE-HOME MESSAGES Demography matters for the pace of economic development There is potentially a significant demographic dividend (DD) in Iran’s future Need for estimating the potential size and impact of Iran’s demographic dividend Lack of data, low data quality, and lack of access to data for measuring DD is a challenge M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi

M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi TAKE-HOME MESSAGES Reaping the DD requires: High employment Women’s involvement in labour market Productivity Long term, flexible, coordinated plan and ACTION M. J. Abbasi-Shavazi, R. Sadeghi, M. Hosseini Chavoshi