Fashion Merchandising 3.0 Understanding Fashion Trends and Forecasting Objective 3.01 Understand the use of data in fashion forecasting.

Fashion Forecasting Foreseeing fashion trends and predicting those trends early enough to allow time for production to meet the consumer demand. Because of the time required for textile design and development, the textile segment leads in recognizing fashion directions. Textile designers work at least 18 months ahead of the schedule for products to hit the market.

Fashion Trend The direction of movement of public acceptance of color, texture, and silhouette in fashion. What are the newest styles and silhouettes? What are the important colors for upcoming seasons? What are the newest developments in the fiber and fabric markets? What is happening to materials and labor prices? Where are companies having garments made?

The Importance of Forecasting Accurate forecasting makes it possible for the fashion industry segments to prepare for and meet consumer demand with products that will be accepted and purchased. Keen worldwide competition increases the importance of accurate trend identification.

Who is Involved in Forecasting? Fashion staffs employed by textile producers. Highly-skilled consultants working for fashion services. Provide market research, feasibility studies, collection reports, forecasting, consulting, slides, garments on loan, and/or original designers. Examples of Fashion Services: Donegar Creative Services, Promostyl, ESP Trend Lab, Carlin International, Here and There, Trend Union.

Who is Involved in Forecasting? Fashion Designers The silhouette of a design (the overall form or outline of a clothing style) can be a major factor. Color Services Yarn colors or swatches are sent to designers and merchandisers to plan their color stories and purchase fabrics. Examples of Color Services: Standard Color of Textile Dictionnaire Internationale de la Couleur, Patone Inc., International Color Authority, The Color Box, The Color Marketing Group, Concepts in Color, Huepoint, Color Portfolio Inc.

Who is Involved in Forecasting? Fashion Merchandisers Uses fashion forecasting in the retail environment. Retail Store Owners/Managers

Activities in Fashion Forecasting Making and reporting predictions based on logic, market research, and instinct. Coordinating information gathered from fiber, yarn, and apparel companies, and textile shows worldwide. Analyzing the fashion press, visiting the world’s fashion centers, and observing fashion leaders.

Activities in Fashion Forecasting Conducting Market Research Consumer Research Surveys by telephone or mail to determine income levels, lifestyles, fashion preferences, and shopping habits. Consumer focus groups to discuss aspects of shopping satisfaction and the pros and cons of currently offered merchandise. In-store informal interviewing to assess what customers like and dislike and what they want but cannot find.

Activities in Fashion Forecasting Conducting Market Research (cont.) Market Research Study of market conditions. Observation of consumer lifestyles. Study of current events, the arts and the mood of the public.

Activities in Fashion Forecasting Conducting Market Research (cont.) Sales Research Evaluation of previous sale records to recognize sales trends. Rising sales identify developing trends. Declining sales show what fashions have passed their peak. Weak sales indicate fashions that are not meeting consumer demand.

Activities in Fashion Forecasting Conducting Market Research (cont.) Comparison Shopping Evaluation of currently popular designer collections. Review of fashion publications, catalogs, and websites. Observation of “street” fashions and celebrity wardrobes.

Sources of Information Trade Publications Magazines, newspapers, and books about and for a specific industry. Relate current information about trends, business conditions, vendors, and meetings/conventions. Example: WWD (Women’s Wear Daily)

Sources of Information Consumer Publications Magazines that provide fashion news for the consumer. Examples: Teen, Vogue, Glamour, GQ Websites

Forecasting Design Forecasting involves predicting the elements of design which are color, shape, line and texture. These elements are put together in different ways to form designs. The principles of design are balance, proportion, emphasis, and rhythm. They are guidelines for using the elements of design. The design elements: Color Shape Line Texture The principles of design: Balance Proportion Emphasis Rhythm are used to arrange according to to attractively create Harmony: pleasing visual unity