Jean-Michel Carnus, Hervé Jactel, Floor Vodde RISK ANALYSIS in Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) of Forest Resources Management M2 Jean-Michel Carnus, Hervé Jactel, Floor Vodde INRA (France)

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 Presentation outline introduction to Module 2 issues and context for risk analysis material and methods main results conclusive remarks Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Overall objective To develop methodologies and tools to conduct SIA of Forest Resources Management at various scales. M2 will produce improved indicators and models, and provide data and results to M1 on the way forest management affects SIA of FWC. Specific objectives to characterise environmental, economic and social functions of forests and their interactions with management to assess the impacts on the three pillars of sustainability of forest management strategies (FMS) to analyse and assess risks associated with various FMS to improve integration of predictive tools for sustainability assessment M2

Module structure and links M0 – Scientific coordination & management M6 - Knowledge Transfer M1 - Sustainability Impact Assessment WP 2.5 Integrated modelling tools data base WP 2.0 Co-ordination WP 2.1 Sustainable Forest Management Strategies WP 2.2 Environmental services WP 2.3 Social values M2 WP 2.4 Risk assessment M3 - Forest to Industry Interactions

Forest production processes Regeneration Young Medium Adult Thinning: tree height 16-20 m removal of 35% of basal area Final harvest: clear cut when tree > 20m height  Drainage: protection ditching  Site preparation: scarification Planting: 2.4 x 2.4m with 1/0 seedlings Pest control: beetle protection M2 Tree height = 1-2m systematic reduction to 1000 – 1500 trees  Fertilization: 120kg N/ha Thinning: tree height 14-16m removal of 40% of basal area

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 M2 Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 Selection of main tree species Others 6.8% 34 mil. m3 Betula 3.8% 19 mil. m3 Castanea 2.5% 13 mil. m3 Eucalyptus 3.2% 16 mil. m3 Quercus 10.7% 54 million m3 Fagus 7.6% 38 mil. m3 Picea 27.5% 139 million m3 M2 Pinus 37.8% 190 million m3 % of mean annual increment (data source Schelhaas et al,1999) Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 Context and issues (1) M2 activities in Zvolen Eforwood week – May 2007 Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 Context and issues (2) natural hazards affects sustainability of forest resources increasing hazards occurrence and damages forest management affects vulnerability to hazards Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Context EU and issues (3) 35 M m 3 damaged wood /year (1950-2000) 3 main causes (wind, fire, insects) increasing magnitude of damages (area, volume) Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 Context and issues (4) integration of risks into forest management need to improve damage evaluation and monitoring methods and tools (cf FWC indicator) predict effects of management changes on risks Work objective: to contribute to the assessment and prediction of the effects of forest management alternatives on risks in European forests Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 Method - framework Forest management & operations statistics on prevalence Hazards Pests Wind Fire Stand vulnerability x Quantitative indicators Tree mortality Growth loss Wood quality Risk of damage Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 Method - Database on hazards objective: rank the causes of damage on the main tree species in Europe origin of data: agreement Eforwood - ICP Forests ( 6000 observation plots - grid of 16 x 16 km throughout Europe) content: data from 25 countries, 1987-2005 - ca. 300 000 trees with one cause of damage identified structure: ACCESS M2 Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 Method = analysis of ICP Forest data The International Co-operative Programme Forests monitors the forest condition in Europe on around 6000 observation plots on a systematic transnational grid of 16 x 16 km 25 out of 40 countries agreed to share ICP data Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 Method = analysis of ICP Forest data Criteria for data selection min. 4 trees / plot min. 20 plots / tree species during the 1994-2005 period 3841 plots tree species 14 countries 1994-2005 period Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 Method = analysis of ICP Forest data Agent group code Game and grazing 100 Insects 200 Fungi 300 Abiotic agents (drought, frost, heat, snow, wind…) 400 Direct action of men 500 Fire 600 Atmospheric polluants 700 + % damaged trees / plot (with at least 1 damage) Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 Method - Typology Forest type level Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 Method - Typology Biome level 5 Forest biomes Boreal Atlantic Continental Mountainous Mediterranean Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 Results - Patterns Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 Results - Patterns Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 Results Mean relative % of damage causes in the 26 European tree species Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 Results - Patterns Abiotic Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 Results - Typology Biome level Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 Results -Typology Biome level Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 Discussion - Interpretation Biome level What emerges from the analysis of ICP data is that the levels and the causes of biotic and abiotic hazard prevalence in European forests mainly depend on the tree taxa, the bioclimatic zones and to a lower extent on the management regimes (silviculture rotation) Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 Conclusive remarks (1) prevalence of biotic hazards & damages in EU forests tree species and biogeographic zones are most critical factors possibility to document the FWC indicator on damage in TOSIA Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007 Conclusive remarks (2) next steps effects of forest management options on stand vulnerability (Nov. 2007) data on damage intensity in regional case studies risk scoring modules to be used in regional simulators (Sept. 2008) Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

Thank you for your attention Cooperation with ICP programme and national contacts is greatly acknowledged Thank you to all M2 partners Thank you for your attention Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007