Quantitative Risk Analysis LionGas LNG Terminal Rotterdam MTEC 2007 H.Ligteringen, C.van der Tak, R.Dirkx and F.A.de Boer

Steps in the presentation Introduction/ background project Nautical- and external safety Present methods for QRA New QRA method in this project Results for the LionGas Terminal

Introduction/ background project 4Gas initiative: - LNG-Import terminal at the Kop van de Beer in Rotterdam Europoort, LionGas B.V. - Ultimate capacity 18 billion m3/year - 1e phase (9 billion m3/year) operational in 2009 EIA-studies carried out by Royal Haskoning with assistence of MARIN Port of Rotterdam study of capacity and safety of shipping

Location Europoort Kop van de Beer

Lay-out LNG Terminal

EIA-studies Permits Most important aspects: External Risks Environmental Impacts (noise, emissions, energy, visual impact) Shipping safety

Studies on Capacity and Safety (PoR) DNV-studies into rules at existing LNG-terminals re safety distance for shipping during arrival and departure of LNG carriers PoR internal study of “nautical rules” Capacity simulations to judge the effects of the nautical rules

Present method for QRA Based on strong schematisation of the traffic pattern in the area concerned (classification of ships according to cargo type, dimensions, speed; correction factors for a.o. the angle of collision) Conversion of collision energy into hole size on the basis of analytical relations External risk determined according to national standards

New QRA method in this project Numerical computation of probability of collision or grounding by means of the model SAMSON Numerical computation of the size of the hole in the LNGC by means of an analytical collision model, which reflects the specific hull structure of the LNGC and bow shape of the colliding vessel Computation of the LNG spill for given hole size and its effects in terms of individual- and group risks

Considered trajectories upon arrival

Resulting probability of collision/grounding Grounding probability is negligable Collision probability is largest in case of a substantial angle between the vessels: - at the crossing with the Beerkanaal - during manoeuvring from Calandkanaal in and out of the basin - at the terminal

Computation of the hole size Hull structure and collision angle

■ Bow shape colliding vessel

Probability of a hole of a certain size

External Risk Analysis Computation of the LNG-spill from the hole and its consequences (pool fire, gas cloud, explosion) Quantification effects applying the Dutch code (CPR 14 E, the “Yellow Book”) Comparison of the end results with the results according to common practice (Sandia 2004)

Results Individual Risk (2035) 10-7 per jaar 10-8 per jaar

Result Group Risk

Conclusions Maximum individual risk amounts to 10-7/year (< 10-6/year), contour far from housing areas Group risk far below the legal maximum By application of carefully determined nautical rules the desired safety can be realised, also in very dense traffic areas, without affecting the capacity very much