Terrorism 2027 James J.F. Forest, Ph.D. May 5, 2017

Thinking about the Future Terrorist Group Dynamics Who will emerge as a new terrorist group? Why will they have chosen terrorism? Where will they attack, and why? How will they adapt (weapons, targets, etc.)? Contextual dimensions Political, socio-economic, technological, etc. Slide 2 of 14

Shape of Terrorism 2027 Will radical Islam continue to be the leading motivation for terrorism in 2027? If not, what might supplant it? Thinking forward ten years, what should policymakers be most concerned about regarding terrorism? What will policymakers wish they had known in 2017 about the future of terrorism? Slide 3 of 14

Ideological dimensions Contextual enabling dimensions Radical Islam will very likely be the leading motivation for terrorism in 2027 Why? What would give radical Islamist terrorism more staying power than previous waves of terrorism? Ideological dimensions Contextual enabling dimensions Slide 4 of 14

Ideological Reasons Theological resonance of grievances Governance, secular globalization, Sunni-Shia bloodshed Powerful vision of the Caliphate Lack of authoritative leadership in Muslim World Salafist networks worldwide Opportunities for recruitment, funding ISIS-created “external operations network” Slide 5 of 14

Contextual Enablers Demographic changes & resource constraints Emerging “youth bulge” in Middle East, Africa Economic stagnation, limited opportunities Political dimensions Unresolved conflicts (Israel-Palestine; Saudi-Iran) Communication Technologies Spread of ideological inspiration & operational instruction Slide 6 of 14

A Global Competition Al Qaeda & affiliates vs. Islamic State & affiliates Global jihadism as network of jihadist networks, individuals, wannabes, ideological entrepreneurs, seekers, bomb-makers, facilitators, financiers, and many others Potential for adapting organically to changes in operating environment Slide 7 of 14

Other ideologies may also inspire new or renewed kinds of terrorist attacks “Defending the environment” attacks “Defending the underprivileged” attacks Escalation of Kurdish ethno-nationalist attacks Escalation of Kashmir separatist attacks Slide 8 of 14

Increase in “othering” will inspire more kinds of terrorism Rising nationalism, isolationism, anti-globalization becomes increasingly violent Attacks against multinational corporation targets, foreign-owned banks, franchises, universities, other entities perceived responsible for globalization, perceived threats to national sovereignty Slide 9 of 14

Increase in “othering” will inspire more kinds of terrorism Increase in attacks against ethnic minority populations in Europe, North America, Asia Ethnic minority groups using terrorism against majority population as form of revenge Attacks by new “defending the Shia” groups in the Levant, Gulf countries, Pakistan Slide 10 of 14

What will our future selves wish we had known in 2017? Which affiliate of IS (or AQ) will rise to the forefront of the global jihadist movement, and why? Where should we deploy our resources (intelligence, economic, legal, etc.) in 2017 in order to prevent this from happening? Slide 11 of 14

What will our future selves wish we had known in 2017? How to curb the growth in popularity of “othering” in mainstream political and public discourse before it leads to violence? How to ensure regime change (in Syria, Libya, Iraq, Zimbabwe, etc.) doesn’t create security vacuum, or hospitable environment for terrorist groups Slide 12 of 14

What will our future selves wish we had known in 2017? How to prevent or constrain future technological innovations by terrorists Drones (airborne & underwater) Robotics Cyberattacks (to amplify fear of kinetic attacks) Dual-use chemicals Slide 13 of 14

What will our future selves wish we had known in 2017? How to develop and nurture community resilience more effectively as part of comprehensive CT effort Historical evidence indicates terrorists fail most often Limited resonance of terrorist ideologies Over-reacting to terrorism only benefits the terrorists Slide 14 of 14

Discussion