Sub-National Projections for Scottish areas William Howes @NatRecordsScot

Overview Background Sub-national population projections Other population projections Household projections Future developments @NatRecordsScot

Projections in Scotland Background Projections in Scotland ONS produce the national population projections for Scotland NRS then produce sub-national population projections for council areas, health boards, national parks and strategic development planning authorities The household projections are then produced, using the population projections as one of the inputs There are: 32 Council areas; 14 NHS Board areas; 2 National Park areas; and 4 Strategic Development Planning areas. @NatRecordsScot

Background 2016-based projections in Scotland National population projections October-November 2017 Sub-national population projections Spring 2018 Household projections Summer 2018 @NatRecordsScot

Sub-national Population projections Cohort component method Current Population Special Population Age On Natural Change Net Migration Special Population New Population @NatRecordsScot

Sub-national Population projections Births and Deaths To calculate projected births/deaths we multiply: Population at risk Local Scaling Factor Age-Specific Fertility/Mortality Rates @NatRecordsScot

Sub-national Population projections Special populations Armed Forces Personnel Prisoners Old Method A ‘miscellaneous’ adjustment. The change in armed forces personnel in the year prior to the projection. New Method Average of estimated special populations. Removed before and re-applied after projecting each year. @NatRecordsScot

Sub-national Population projections Migration method change Migration Components: International (INT) Migration Rest of UK (RUK) Migration Within Scotland (WS) Migration Old Method All Migration – Single-Region Net Migration Assumption New Method INT Migration – Auto-Regressive Time Series RUK and WS Migration – Multi-Region Rates Based @NatRecordsScot

Sub-national Population projections The Old Method East Lothian City of Edinburgh Midlothian @NatRecordsScot

Sub-national Population projections International Migration Total estimated Total projected for one year Total projected for one year Estimated age distribution Scaled projection Area scaled Other area National projection @NatRecordsScot

Sub-national Population projections RUK and Within Scotland Migration between City of Edinburgh and East Lothian Migration between East Lothian and Midlothian Migration between City of Edinburgh and Midlothian @NatRecordsScot

Sub-national Population projections Results of method change New Method Projects Higher Population New Method Projects Lower Population @NatRecordsScot

Sub-national Population projections Variant projections Constrained to the equivalent variant projection produced by ONS for Scotland as a whole Available variants for sub-national projections: Variant Type Fertility Life expectancy Migration Principal projection   Principal Standard 'single component' variants High fertility High Low fertility Low High life expectancy Low life expectancy High migration Low migration Special case scenario Zero migration outwith Scotland migration Zero @NatRecordsScot

Sub-national Population projections Variant projections https://scotland.shinyapps.io/population-projection-variants/ @NatRecordsScot

Sub-council area projections Other Population projections Sub-council area projections The aim of the project was to provide insight into potential future population and household trends within council areas We think this is the first time small area projections have been produced for a whole country – experimental statistics Percentage change in population 2012-2026 @NatRecordsScot

Alternative EU migration variants Other Population projections Alternative EU migration variants Attempt to give an indication of the impact of differing future EU migration levels Other assumptions the same as the principal projection Migration Assumptions Net migration from the Rest of the UK (2039) Net migration from overseas (2039) Total Net migration (2039) 150 per cent future EU migration variant 5,500 13,400 18,900 Principal 9,500 15,000 50 per cent future EU migration variant 5,600 11,100 Zero future EU migration variant 1,800 7,300 @NatRecordsScot

Alternative EU migration variants Other Population projections Alternative EU migration variants This resulted in population growth being 2% lower in Scotland in the 50% future EU migration scenario by 2039 However, these variants do have limitations @NatRecordsScot

Household projections Method overview Take population projections. Subtract population living in communal establishments, e.g. student halls, care homes. Project forward information on household type (‘headship rates’), e.g. 1 adult, 2 adults plus children Use three censuses (1991, 2001 and 2011). Scottish Household Survey data for 2014 – weights Constrain to the household estimates and Scottish total @NatRecordsScot

Household projections Variants @NatRecordsScot

Future Developments Change in Scottish planning system. May have to project for different areas Develop age-specific fertility/mortality rates for each area Adapt the method to calculate sub-Council projections @NatRecordsScot

Future Developments Potential impact of Brexit on the projections – contributing to ONS consultation Ongoing requirement for EU variants – depends what variants are produced in the NPPs Would be difficult to model the impact of Brexit at council level for the sub-national projections @NatRecordsScot

Thank You Sub-National Population Projections homepage: http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/sub-national-population-projections Household Projections homepage: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/housholds/household-projections Contact us at: statisticscustomerservices@nrscotland.gov.uk @NatRecordsScot