Elections in Multi-Ethnic Cities Political Science 61 / Chicano/Latino Studies 64 November 13, 2007

Urban Politics Increasingly Multiethnic Largest cities are multiethnic Los Angeles (city) 47% Latino; 30% Anglo; 11% Black; 10% Asian American New York 35% Anglo; 27% Latino; 25% Black; 10% Asian American Chicago 36% Black; 31% Anglo; 26% Latino; 4% Asian American Houston 37% Latino; 31% White; 25% Black; 5% Asian American

Multiethnic Cities: A Venue for Pluralist Competition Pluralism A condition in which ethnic, religious, or cultural groups compete within a society Outcomes should reflect some optimal balance of interests Why in cities more than nationally? Fewer super-majoritarian institutional barriers at the urban level (courts prohibit) Legacies of European ethnic identities Cities more explicitly distribute resources More likely to be minority officeholders as well as cohesive minority electorates Race/ethnic minorities not the only cohesive interests (groups the compete in a pluralist universe)

Multiethnic Cities, but Racially Homogeneous Neighborhoods Most multiethnic cities continue to have high racial/ethnic segregation at the neighborhood level Legacy of discrimination Reinforced by Economic segregation of housing Intra-urban migration patterns Consequence Local politics continues to be more group-focused than state/national politics Schools and school politics racially/ethnically homogeneous

Minorities More Likely to Live Around “Others” “Ethnic succession” Traditionally, immigrants move into older housing stock, near workplaces More recently, also suburban immigrant destinations Political consequences Competition between immigrant populations and African Americans Districting strategies can often be used to undermine race/ethnic politics Limited number of offices promote competition for representation

Perceptions of Neighborhood Racial Integration

Other Opportunities for Contact in Urban Areas Workplaces Integration varies dramatically by profession Houses of worship Emergence of the megachurch Recreational activities Contact with other groups varies by age Civic activities Schools Review – “Bowling Alone” irregular contact among people in social/recreational settings

Urban Politics: Los Angeles Case Study Raphael Sonenshein’s study of Los Angeles Minority exclusion (1961-1973) White-led coalition denied political opportunities to Blacks and other minorities The Bradley Coalition (1973-1993) Blacks, Latinos, liberal whites (particularly Jews) Coalition declined as each group sought leadership Riordan and beyond (1993-) Business-led coalitions Minority communities divided, internally and from each other

The 2005 Mayoral Race(s): A New Model? Two stage election (unless one candidate received 50 percent of the vote in the first election) Primary – Group/region/ideology all represented to varying degrees Race/Ethnicity Valley vs. Non-Valley Moderate vs. Liberal Democrats With so many candidates (5), little incentive to build coalitions at first In runoff, winner had to reach beyond his own race/ethnic group

Race/Ethnic Voting Los Angeles Mayoral Primary Alarcon Hahn Hertzberg Parks Villa-raigosa Whites 3% 23% 36% 5% 27% Blacks 2% 54% 15% Latinos 9% 17% 7% 64% Asians - 59% 12% 8% 19% Source: Los Angeles Times, Exit Poll

Race/Ethnic Voting Los Angeles Mayoral Runoff Hahn Villaraigosa Whites 50% Blacks 52% 48% Latinos 16% 84% Asian American 56% 44% Source: Los Angeles Times, exit poll

Was This an Example of Raw Latino Power? Not really – Latinos had supported Villaraigosa strongly in 2001 What changed was division in non-Latino electorates Whites split their votes evenly Valley versus Westside Young Blacks and Black leaders supported Villaraigosa (and, so, the Black vote split) Asian American electorate is the outlier Hahn’s weaknesses as a leader more evident

Will the Los Angeles Experience Reappear in Other U.S. Cities? No, at least in the short term Multiracial political coalitions are hard to form And, harder to sustain When multiracial coalitions have formed, blacks have generally led Latino and Asian Americans most underrepresented in electorate 2001, 2003, 2005—New York and Houston Latino candidates defeated despite Latino majorities/pluralities in city population Latino candidates defeated by undermining their White support

Villaraigosa Election Offers a Possible New Model Los Angeles shares political characteristics with other major urban areas Latino plurality, with Latino electorate making up a smaller share of voters than does Latino population of total population Rich pool of Latino leaders at the council/school board level Tensions – arguably fears – of Latino empowerment in African American communities White leaders who are skilled at dividing minority communities Divisions within Latino elites – concerns about raising prominence of others

Los Angeles's “Urban” Politics also Regional Los Angeles (city) a small part of Los Angeles (region) LA City – 3,694,834 LA County – 9,519,338 Five county region – 16,373,645 Minority concentrations in Unincorporated Los Angeles County Los Angeles county cities Orange County Increasingly, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties

LA Regional Cities

Each Area Has Different Form of Minority Politics Unincorporated areas Most government contracted; little local control Few institutions to incorporate Small Los Angeles County cities Small city politics, tipping to Latino control Generally, few institutions of incorporation Orange County North county cities, tension between immigrant and native minorities Riverside and San Bernardino Counties Republican inroads among Latinos Unlikely that there will be Latino plurality areas

All are “Urban” Politics –Meaning of Urban Changed In this Los Angeles, is somewhat unique Changes the story, not just of urban politics, but also of Resources for immigrant adaptation Inter-group cooperation (Tuesday’s topic) Unlikely that there will be a single path for minority politics in Los Angeles

For Next Time How did race and gender interact to shape voting patterns in California’s 2003 recall race?