The Human Health Co-Benefits of Fossil Fuel Emissions Reductions for Climate Change Mitigation George D. Thurston, ScD. Professor NYU School of Medicine

Climate Change Policies If We Take Climate Change Mitigation Steps, Air Quality Co-Benefits Also Come Many policies to avoid/mitigate climate change would improve air quality right away. Many policies to improve air quality would lower GHG emissions. Air Quality Policies Climate Change Policies Human Health

Relationship between Climate Change and Air Quality Policies Source: Ancillary human health benefits of improved air quality resulting from climate change mitigation. Bell ML, Davis DL, Cifuentes LA, Krupnick AJ, Morgenstern RD, Thurston GD. Environ Health. 2008 Jul 31;7:41. Review.

Greenhouse Gases and Air Pollution Health Effects • The major sources of PM and O3 precursors are also the major sources greenhouse gases. • Reducing GHG emissions from fossil fuel sources will also yield ancillary public health co-benefits, as O3 and PM are also reduced. • The Ancillary Benefits to the countries that reduce air pollution emissions will include reductions in the entire “pyramid” of air pollution health effects, such as reductions in air pollution-related deaths and hospital admissions.

The Pyramid of Air Pollution Effects

Daily Number of Asthma Attacts Daily Asthma Attacks in Children Increase as Pollution Levels Rise (Thurston et al., JRCCM 1997) 35 30 25 Daily Number of Asthma Attacts 50-60 Asthmatic Children in a Group of 20 15 10 5 50 100 150 200 1-hr Daily Maximum Ozone Concentration (ppb)

Mortality Risk of Long-Term Fine PM Exposure Increases with Exposure (Pope, Burnett, Thun, Calle, Krewski, Ito , and Thurston) (JAMA, 2002)

PM Air Pollution is a Leading Global Health Problem

GBD Study Updated with Improved PM2.5 Effect Estimates <- Household PM

Coal Burning is the Biggest Problem

Why Combustion Particles Are Among the Most Toxic Humans are now exposed to fossil fuel combustion particles (e.g., from power plants) that the lung did not evolve to deal with. These particles have different sizes, different physiochemical characteristics, and deposit in different parts of the lung than more “natural” particles (e.g., wind blown soil).

Global Impact of BAU on Public Health (The LANCET, 1997) Fossil Fuel Consumption Air Pollutants CO2 CONCENTRATIONS OF PARTICULATE MATTER 8 MILLION avoidable DEATHS by 2020 under BAU compared to climate policy Devra, The sequencing of these in slideshow mode may be off. Please check before you show so you know how it runs. Human Exposures Public Health Impacts 9

Health Benefits Can be Assigned Dollar Valuations to do Cost-Benefit Analyses

The Problem of Climate Change Action and PM Air Pollution (Thurston, Nature CC, 2013) The problems with climate change as a policy issue are: the most severe potential effects of climate change are decades away, and society tends to discount things in the future. most of the climate benefits of mitigation are not localized, so that those investing in mitigation receive little more climate benefit than those who do nothing In contrast, the air quality health benefits (and their associated monetary valuations) of reducing emissions of air pollutants that occur simultaneously with the CO2 emissions (for example, PM air pollution) are more immediate and local, and occur primarily in the regions and nations that take these steps to mitigate CO2 (Fig.1)

PM Cleanup Co-Benefits of Climate Mitigation Can Be Large if Fossil Fuel Combustion Reduced Valuation of Health Co-Benefits (Red & Blue) Exceed the Costs of Mitigation (Green)

The Developing World has the most to gain from controlling climate change Lancet. Dec 19;374. Epub 2009 Nov 26.

Air Pollution Improvements From EPA Clean Power Plant Climate Program (Driscoll et al, 2015) BAU Power Plant Program Ozone PM2.5

Health Co-Benefits From EPA Clean Power Plant Climate Program (Driscoll et al, 2015) Clean Power Plant Program Business as Usual

Implications While damage from Climate Change has begun, the greatest effects of climate change are distant in time (which the public and politicians tend to discount). Taking action to reduce Climate Change CO2 emissions will also lower other air pollutants. These other pollutant reductions provide significant immediate and local human health co-benefits and dollar valuations, especially if it reduces coal burning. Human health co-benefits justify immediate cleanup steps more effectively than the argument for avoiding climate change occurring much later in time.