Foresight Science & Technology, Inc. Daniel Satinsky, Esq. Foresight Science & Technology, Inc. How to Define Success?

How to Define Success? Success in commercialization of technology in any country is the monetization of some form of intellectual property. Within this general definition there are a range of possible successful outcomes: Formation of major new company. Scaling up a startup for sale to a large company. Creation of a stable and reasonably profitable small company. Licensing technology and receipt of royalties. New research grants or private funding to continue research. Most university technologies around the world are not commercially successful.

Market-Driven Analysis General Questions to ask yourself to define expectations for success: What is the Maturity Level of the technology? What is the plan to protect the intellectual property so you actually have something to sell? What is the level of market demand and what/where is your market niche? Do you have a compelling competitive advantage over incumbent technologies? What is the time horizon for bringing a product to market and can you finance that time period? Do you have the access to funding and human resources for a start up or are you better off seeking licensing?

Maturity Level? Critical element of attractiveness of technology is its technology readiness level (TRL). The lower the level, the less attractive. Key task for evaluating commercialization is how to raise the TRL, who will pay for it and how long it will take?

Intellectual Property? Some form of IP is Critical: Various forms of protection: First step is to determine who owns the IP? Then how do you want to protect it? Legal systems differ, but there has to be some protection or else you have nothing of value.

Market Demand? Market Niche & Size of Niche Who is your potential customer? Market Niche & Size of Niche Identify where your technology fits in the supply chain or its particular market niche. Determine the actual size of market demand for your specific technology. For example, if you have a gasket for an engine, your market size is not total engine sales. It is sales of gaskets for engines. Be conservative and specific in market size estimates.

Compelling Competitive Advantage? Competitive analysis required: Competitive analysis is complex: For any technology there is always competition. Think through how the problem or task addressed by your technology is being solved already? What advantage does your new technology have compared to existing solutions? Is the existing technology “good enough” or is there compelling unmet need, significant price advantage or significant speed to market from adopting your new technology?

Time to Market & Financing? How long will it take to move up the TRL Scale? Can you access funds to cover costs during time required to move up the TRL Scale? Regulated industries like pharmaceuticals and medical equipment can take many years to reach maturity. Other technology sectors may take substantially less time, but find out and make a reasonable estimate. Without the ability to identify a source of funds for this development period, there is a risk of failure in what is called the “valley of death” for technologies.

What is Success - Start Up or Licensing? Requires core team with business skills and with technology expertise. Requires access to funds. Funding from “fools, friends & family” is traditional, but may not be enough. Usually takes a longer time to market and first sales, so more investment needed. Some markets almost impossible for small startup to enter due to cost or big firm market domination. Most fail, but some succeed spectacularly. May require achieving a higher TRL to mitigate risk to licensor. Moves responsibility for technical and business development away from inventor to the licensor. Removes risk from inventor. Clear mechanism for shared financial success through royalty payments and milestone payments. Potential for large financial reward usually lower that with a start up.

Realistic Expectations? Commercialization is the result of market pull, not technology push. Success in form of revenue comes from someone in the market being willing to pay money for your technology. A brilliant discovery cannot succeed if it has no demand in the market. Monetizing technology involves a “deal” at some point in the process. Without agreement on the value of a technology using market factors, no deal is possible. The value of a technology is different at various points in the development process and deal terms should reflect these differences. Market info helps each side to be comfortable with the fairness of the deal and the revenues that signal success. A preliminary investigation using the questions posed in this presentation will help determine whether to try to commercialize a technology or not. Once deciding to go forward, the information will help decide on the correct commercialization strategy choice between a start up or licensing the technology to someone else.

Foresight Science & Technology, Inc. Here to help, with more than 36 years experience providing technology commercialization services to universities, development agencies and private companies. Offices in the innovation centers of Boston, San Francisco, Singapore and Oxford, UK. Daniel M. Satinsky, Esq. VP. Business Development 401.354.1346 Daniel.satinsky@foresightst.com www.foresightst.com