MTEF/Joint Programming : update and current issues DPG MTEF/Joint programming workshop 25 July 2006
Plan for the workshop Updates on MTEF projections, Joint Program doc, Paris survey Suggested issues for joint program Roundtable : DP presentations on projections Outputs (to be discussed with GOT, CSO) Next steps for MTEF projections (a) for joint programming (b) for 07/08 budget cycle Agreed issues/approach for programming within joint doc
MTEF DP projections so far……. 14 agencies + collective UN projections received so far Analysis below based on data received 5pm yesterday Analysis focussed on aggregate projection issues highlighted in earlier DP discussion, (need to capture planned disbursements, not just existing commitments) Other analysis to follow, guided by today’s discussion
DPs Support (2006/07=100)
Budget Support (2006/07=100)
DPs Support (% of GDP, 2006/07=100)
Budget Support (% of GDP, 2006/07=100)
Total DPs Suppor t (% of GDP)
Budget Support (% of GDP)
Total External Financing, actaul + projections
Total External Financing, actual + projections
Issues for the joint program document : criteria Adding value to individual agency plans (clarifying overall context, adjusting collective strategy, adding collective commitments) Useful contribution achievable in time horizon for program doc Useful for strengthening national planning and budget process, not just one off exercise to meet agency program doc requirements
Preliminary suggestions Looking at key aggregates Aid absorption/scaling up Alignment with MKUKUTA Alignment with JAS Evolution of budget support
Aggregate financing Profile of key aggregates : budget support, sector financing, total public, non state Reliability : inclusion of commitments and plans. can projections be recommended by agencies and DPG overall as sound base for GOT planning? Can the aggregates be made more reliable than the components ? Collective DPG commitment to review shortfalls,
Aid absorption/scaling up At first glance, projections suggest focus may need to be on issues of scaling down ! Given recent history on external financing projections, should at least explore scenario of continued increase, and potential absorption issues at macro and sector level
Alignment with MKUKUTA Analysis by sector (distribute sector projections for sector group comment?) Analysis of match with MKUKUTA eg alignment with requirements on financing growth agenda, major infrastructure, transport sector plan, etc
Alignment with JAS Paris Declaration survey tells us where we are now on implementing JAS principles MTEF projections can tell us where we will be up to 2010, based on existing plans (indicators 5,6,8…any others?) - preliminary target for JAS implementation, basis for dialogue Few DPs have responded on specific indicators but should be fairly easy on basis of projections
Budget support in the MTEF Proportion of budget support appears to be rising (as % GDP, declining less rapidly than total external financing) Looking for changes in expenditure/financing patterns consistent with continued budget support eg budget financing of core reform, additional domestic capital expenditure