Liberia Annual NATIONAL ACCOUNTS Kampala, Uganda 5/26/2018

OUTLINES Historical highlights of Liberia National Accounts activities The first post war National Accounts Annual Survey – 2008 National Accounts Framework Main Policy Issues 2012 NAAS – Methodology 2012 NAAS Preliminary Findings Other National Activities Constraints Way forward 5/26/2018

HISTORICAL HIGHLIGHTS OF NA Activities MPEA conducted its first pre-war comprehensive NAAS in 1986 and was able to publish the results in 1987. The results included National Accounts indicators, tables and graphs. A second attempt was made in 2001 but failed due to low response rate, the results could not be analyzed. As a result, estimates derived over the years have been based on administrative and other related records. Additionally, where there were no data, projections were made. 5/26/2018

THE FIRST POST WAR NAAS -2008 LISGIS conducted Liberia first post war NAAS in 2009 considering 2008 accounting period. NAAS collected detailed information from establishments on their Income and Production for an accounting period in 2008. The Consumption approach. GDP estimates obtained from the 2008 NAAS was US$2.02 billion and GDP per capita was US$582 in nominal term. GDP sectoral distribution1: Agriculture ----- 23.80% Industry ------ 20.70% Services ------ 55.50% 1.5 billion was agreed and accepted. 5/26/2018

THE FIRST POST WAR NAAS -2008 It was agreed by the GOL and IMF that the results obtained from the 2008 NAAS be used as an experimental values until 2014 where a more realistic GDP estimates would be generated. Compilation methodology improved by using the 1993 Systems of National Accounts (SNA) instead of the 1968 edition; Updating of classification by adopting the latest version of the ISIC rev 4; and The above measures have led to changes in the size of the GDP, sectors contributions and all the related indicators that have GDP as their common denominator. 5/26/2018

Main Policy Issues Timely availability of GFS to compile National Accounts estimates. Revising the NSDS to enhance coordination, improvement and compilation of official statistics. Implementation of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey to improve CPI basket, produce GDP using the Expenditure Approach. Strengthening LISGIS Statistical Act. Producing reliable time-series National Accounts covering 2008 to 2014 by mid 2015. 5/26/2018

National Accounts Framework National Accounts currently uses the 2008 SNA. Activities are categorized based on ISIC rev 4. Compilation is currently based on Production Approach. GDP is compiled using the establishments data and other administrative records including Government Financial Statistics. 2008 compilation was based SUT at constant and current prices. Current compilation considers annual data for 2010 and 2011. Limitation - the informal sector is not fully covered. This limitation will be addressed when the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) is concluded – it will be conducted from January 2014 to December 2014 The HIES will also improve the CPI basket that is currently used and enhances the GOL Agenda for Transformation. 5/26/2018

2012 NAAS METHODOLOGY Sample frame for the 2012 NAAS was a merged list of 2010/2011 Liberia Business Registry and the 2007 National Establishment Census with a total of 6245 establishments. Sample design was based on the following steps: Establishments were stratified based on employment size, activity and region- Six (6) regions and fifteen (15) counties; and Establishments employment size (4-9, 10-19, and 20+) Total sample was 1143 establishments. 14 different questionnaires were used: Service, Trade, Industrial, Construction, Health, Education, Air and Sea, Exchange Bureau, Financial Institution, NPISH, Professional Services, Radio and Television, Transport and Communication. GFS and other government data were used to complete the compilation process such as the Government budget including revenue and expenditure data, Transportation data, BOP from the Central Bank, external trade data from the MoC&I and LISGIS, etc. 5/26/2018

2012 NAAS METHODOLOGY Distribution of sample by employment size Distribution of counties by regions Region Names of Counties Region # 1 Bomi, Grand Cape Mount and Gbarpolu Region # 2 Grand Bassa, Margibi and Montserrado Rural Region # 3 Bong, Lofa, and Nimba Region # 4 Grand Gedeh, Rivercess, and Sinoe Region # 5 Grand Kru, Maryland and River Gee Region # 6 Montserrado Urban Size Composition # of Establishment 4-9 10% 530 10-19 25% 148 20+ 100% 465 5/26/2018

Preliminary Findings from 2012 NAAS Table 2: Percentage of all units accounted for in NAAS, Liberia Business Register and National Establishment Census 2013   Activity Percentage of establishments Percentage of workers Value added (Percent) 2010 2011 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 0.69 0.67 13.43 14.04 14.78 11.12 B Mining and quarrying 0.19 0.28 1.70 2.61 2.01 10.25 C Manufacturing 4.18 4.08 8.36 9.82 8.74 6.48 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 0.01 0.48 0.36 5.59 5.90 E Water supply; sewerage, waste management, etc. 0.05 0.23 0.24 0.02 0.03 F Construction 0.38 0.37 6.08 6.17 8.90 22.39 G Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles 29.05 28.20 21.15 19.30 42.52 27.61 H Transportation and storage 51.73 52.81 12.77 12.26 3.80 3.45 I Accommodation and food service activities 3.04 2.99 4.10 3.97 1.59 1.53 J Information and communication 1.00 1.01 2.06 1.94 2.87 2.92 K Financial and insurance activities 0.64 0.65 1.84 1.81 2.71 2.07 L Real estate activities 0.04 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 0.62 0.60 0.54 0.10 0.12 N Administrative and support service activities 0.33 0.34 2.27 3.06 0.59 0.84 P Education 2.74 2.69 12.14 11.40 1.71 1.69 Q Human health and social work activities 1.17 1.14 5.25 4.95 1.74 1.42 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 0.52 0.50 0.32 0.29 0.17 S Other service activities 3.67 3.57 7.20 7.22 2.15 2.04 Total 100.00 5/26/2018

Others NA Activities Updated the sample frame with the canvass of 15,431 establishments (including unregistered businesses) – however, it was observed that some establishments were missed during the Enterprise Census. The Liberia Business Registry data are also review for inclusion into the frame Update was also to produce reliable statistics for the annual years 2010 and 2011. Implemented the pilot test for the Household Income and Expenditure Survey while training is currently ongoing to beginning the survey early January 2014; HIES data collection process is for one (1) year; Revise the NSDS Phase II for data improvement. 5/26/2018

Constraints Timely funding and logistical constraints. Slow response by some enterprises during surveys. Refusal of some large enterprises to respond during census and survey. Low coordination among the NSS especially to provide official statistics that ministries and agencies produce. Slow pace in obtaining GFS on time. Strengthen LISGIS especially the Statistical Act to be robust. LISGIS to fully compile National Accounts data with minimum international consultant actively driving the process. Limited National Accounts staff 5/26/2018

WAY FORWARD Long-term training of National Accountants including periodic hands-on training for National Accounts Staff: Compilation to be fully implemented by LISGIS. Provision of logistical support. Improve GFS and other government records compilation. Using mainly GFS and other government records in the compilation process. Strengthen the Statistical Act of LISGIS. Complete the HIES processes to develop new CPI basket and also produce reliable GDP using the expenditure approach. Improve coordination among the NSS especially to provide timely official statistics that ministries and agencies produce. 5/26/2018

THANK YOU! 5/26/2018