Social forces theory of democracy (Bellin) “Social forces most likely to champion democracy when their economic interests put them at odds with the authoritarian state”

Capitalist class interests Conditioned by High/low dependence on state Example: high dependence on active industrial policies Capitalists seek to protect economic benefits  Low support for democratization Democratization could undermine benefits High/low fear of lower class Example: high fear reflects poverty, inequality Capitalists fear lower-class demands for redistribution Democratization could weaken property rights Redistributive taxes, confiscation

Labor/working class interests Conditioned by High/low dependence on state Example: high dependence on state-sponsored union benefits These workers seek to protect their benefits  Low support for democratization Democratization could undermine benefits Yes/no “aristocratic” position Example: “aristocratic” workers in unionized, formal employment These workers are better off than other workers Democratization could undermine status

Comparison Bellin’s structured comparison of Korea before and after the mid-1980s: Case Capital: state dependence Labor: state dependence Regime type Korea Earlier period Higher Low Authoritarian Later period Lower Democratic

Comparative method: Mill’s method of difference Compare cases with different scores on the outcome (y) variable Tentatively reject hypothesis based on factors with same scores when outcome has different scores: (x1  y) rejected Tentatively support hypothesis based on factors with different scores when outcome has different scores: (x2  y) supported Cases/variables x1 x2 y Country a x1= high x2= present Y = outcome 1 Country b x2= absent Y = outcome 2 Same score: reject x1  y Different scores Different scores

Comparative method: Mill’s method of agreement Compare cases with same score on the outcome (y) variable Tentatively support hypothesis based on factors with same scores when outcome has same scores: (x3  y) supported Tentatively reject hypothesis based on factors with different scores when outcome has same scores: (x4  y) rejected Cases/variables x3 x4 y outcome Country c x3= high x4= present Y = outcome 1 Country d x4= absent Different scores: reject x4  y Same score Same score